TAR in 2030. Compared to 2020, carbon intensity in Japan has no significant change
in 2030 for BAU, while it declines to 0.06 tC per thousand USD in TAR. For Korea,
energy intensity will shift from 0.20 TOE per thousand USD in 2020 to 0.17 TOE
per thousand USD in 2030 in BAU and decline to 0.13 TOE per thousand USD in
TAR in 2030. Carbon intensity decreases from 0.13 tC per thousand USD in 2020 to
0.12 tC per thousand USD in 2030 in BAU and decreases to 0.07 tC per thousand
USD in TAR in 2030.
4.3 Co-benefit Effects on SO 2 and NO x Emissions
4.3.1 Background Information
Transition to a low-carbon community is a common goal in both developed and
developing countries. Using an energy model is an efficient way to analyze this
Table 4.2 Major indicators for Japan
Indicators
2020
Scenarios in 2030
BAU
TAR
Population (millions)
0.125
0.120
0.120
GDP (billions in 2005 USD)
4240.2
4628.2
4557.5
Total primary energy consumption (TPEC, MTOE)
556.0
553.5
397.8
Energy intensity (TOE per thousand USD in 2005)
0.13
0.12
0.09
Coal share in TPEC (%)
18.8%
19.0%
20.7%
Oil share in TPEC (%)
49.8%
54.5%
41.4%
Natural gas share in TPEC (%)
14.7%
17.3%
23.3%
Nuclear share in TPEC (%)
12.9%
4.5%
5.6%
Carbon emissions (billion tons carbon)
0.38
0.41
0.27
Carbon intensity (ton carbon per thousand USD in 2005)
0.09
0.09
0.06
Table 4.3 Major indicators for Korea
Indicators
2020
Scenarios in 2030
BAU
TAR
Population (millions)
0.049
0.050
0.050
GDP (billions in 2005 USD)
1651.6
2197.1
2144.9
Total primary energy Consumption (TPEC, MTOE)
323.2
379.6
277.8
Energy intensity (TOE per thousand USD in 2005)
0.20
0.17
0.13
Coal share in TPEC (%)
19.8%
18.6%
12.7%
Oil share in TPEC (%)
46.7%
46.9%
34.3%
Natural gas share in TPEC (%)
13.9%
15.7%
21.4%
Nuclear share in TPEC (%)
17.6%
15.9%
21.5%
Carbon emissions (billion tons carbon)
0.22
0.25
0.15
Carbon intensity (ton carbon per thousand USD in 2005)
0.13
0.12
0.07
4 Modeling the East Asian Low-Carbon Community
95