8 COVID-19 and Its Impact on Carbon Dioxide Emissions
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8.8 Implication
The changes in global CO 2 emission observed in the first quarter of 2020 expected
not to impose any structural changes in the sector-wise energy consumption and
economic system. With uphold of confinement could alter the system in unpredictable
way [17]. The time of upholding of partial and complete confinement would impact
the system greatly. Also, surge in energy and chemical demand could impact the CO 2
emission statistics at the end of 2020. Lower demand of energy and/or materials could
be beneficial for climate stabilization [3]. To alter the surge in CO 2 emission after
upholding of lockdown completely low carbon emission based pathways should be
implemented.
The changes for the rest of the year would be depending on the time duration and
level of confinement along with the rate of resuming the activities as pre confinement.
Most of the countries uphold the confinement related restrictions by the mid-April to
mid-May. Le Quéré et al. [12] in their report tried to predict the CO 2 emission post
lockdown upholding. They discussed three scenarios and estimated probable global
CO 2 emission. They assume that within six weeks of upholding of lockdown, same
level of activities as pre-crisis would be achieved, as seen in China. In this situation
the estimated CO 2 emission due to COVID-19 crisis would be reduced by 4.2%. In
the second scenario they assumed that the pre-crisis activities will return by 12 weeks
due to social trauma and lack of confidence. According to Le Quéré et al. [12], in
this scenario the CO 2 emission would be reduced by 5.3%. In the third case it was
assumed that if the strict confinement continued until the end of this year or partly
remains for few activities. In this situation around CO 2 emission would be reduced
by 7.5%.
8.9 Conclusions and Future Scope
The above discussion indicated that change in activities could decrease CO 2 emission
and enhance the air quality. Due to COVID-19 related confinement and corresponding
restriction over sector-wise activities, CO 2 emission decreased for all six economic
sectors especially in aviation and surface transport. Policy change in this sector could
be helpful to cut CO 2 emissions even after the lockdown erased. Many cities already
dedicated street space for safe mobility to pedestrian and cyclist that eventually
will change the CO 2 emission status of those cities. However, follow up monitoring
would improve our understanding on impact of such policy change in CO 2 emission.
Emissions from other sectors like industry especially cement production industries,
decreased noticeably after lockdown implementation. Also, early implementation
of confinement showed early decrease of CO 2 emission. The monitoring of country
level CO 2 emission indicated that the emission started decreasing rapidly only after
the implementation of lockdown. Overall CO 2 emission data indicated that strict
confinement has positive impact on the quality of our environment.
209
8.8 Implication
The changes in global CO 2 emission observed in the first quarter of 2020 expected
not to impose any structural changes in the sector-wise energy consumption and
economic system. With uphold of confinement could alter the system in unpredictable
way [17]. The time of upholding of partial and complete confinement would impact
the system greatly. Also, surge in energy and chemical demand could impact the CO 2
emission statistics at the end of 2020. Lower demand of energy and/or materials could
be beneficial for climate stabilization [3]. To alter the surge in CO 2 emission after
upholding of lockdown completely low carbon emission based pathways should be
implemented.
The changes for the rest of the year would be depending on the time duration and
level of confinement along with the rate of resuming the activities as pre confinement.
Most of the countries uphold the confinement related restrictions by the mid-April to
mid-May. Le Quéré et al. [12] in their report tried to predict the CO 2 emission post
lockdown upholding. They discussed three scenarios and estimated probable global
CO 2 emission. They assume that within six weeks of upholding of lockdown, same
level of activities as pre-crisis would be achieved, as seen in China. In this situation
the estimated CO 2 emission due to COVID-19 crisis would be reduced by 4.2%. In
the second scenario they assumed that the pre-crisis activities will return by 12 weeks
due to social trauma and lack of confidence. According to Le Quéré et al. [12], in
this scenario the CO 2 emission would be reduced by 5.3%. In the third case it was
assumed that if the strict confinement continued until the end of this year or partly
remains for few activities. In this situation around CO 2 emission would be reduced
by 7.5%.
8.9 Conclusions and Future Scope
The above discussion indicated that change in activities could decrease CO 2 emission
and enhance the air quality. Due to COVID-19 related confinement and corresponding
restriction over sector-wise activities, CO 2 emission decreased for all six economic
sectors especially in aviation and surface transport. Policy change in this sector could
be helpful to cut CO 2 emissions even after the lockdown erased. Many cities already
dedicated street space for safe mobility to pedestrian and cyclist that eventually
will change the CO 2 emission status of those cities. However, follow up monitoring
would improve our understanding on impact of such policy change in CO 2 emission.
Emissions from other sectors like industry especially cement production industries,
decreased noticeably after lockdown implementation. Also, early implementation
of confinement showed early decrease of CO 2 emission. The monitoring of country
level CO 2 emission indicated that the emission started decreasing rapidly only after
the implementation of lockdown. Overall CO 2 emission data indicated that strict
confinement has positive impact on the quality of our environment.