12
1 Introduction to the Concepts and Use of ERA Acute
migration and wintering areas could be established using loggers and other tracking
devices, machine learning techniques etc. to estimate and validate distributions.
For NCS, the authors have prepared industry standard seabird data using species
distributions from the specialist scientific institutions Norwegian Polar Institute
(NPI) and Norwegian Institute of Nature Research (NINA) under the SEAPOP and
SEATRACK programs (http://www.seapop.no/en/). Data prepared by agent-based
modelling under MARAMBS (Marine Animal Ranging Assessment Model Barents
Sea, DHI) (http://marambs.dhigroup.com/) have also been utilized. Construction of
VEC data for the international validation cases are described in Sect. 4.1.4. For
all ERA Acute parameters, default values are suggested based on assessment of
available scientific knowledge. However, parameter values related to the VEC and
specific population in question should be assessed, tested and if necessary, adjusted
and validated for the specific VEC population.
1.4.3 Model Input Parameters
ERA Acute calculation functions use many parameters which have values that are
specific for certain species or regions (upper right light orange box in Fig. 1.1).
Recommended values based on literature studies are supplied for use in the Northern
Atlantic/NCS region with the software tool and documented in the methodology
development reports (Bjørgesæter and Damsgaard Jensen 2015; Brude et al. 2015;
Brönner et al. 2015; Stephansen et al. 2015). These values can be changed by the
user if other values are considered more appropriate for another specific region or
when future research provides new knowledge. However, it is strongly recommended
to obtain consensus for the parameter values used in analyses that are carried out
for example within the same regulatory framework or region, in order to compare
analyses.
1.5 From Spill Scenario to Case and from Damage to Risk
The basic concepts of impact and recovery calculation in ERA Acute have been
described in Sect. 1.3 and are described in greater detail in Chap. 3. In order to
calculate risk from the estimated consequences, the probability of the damage also
has to be taken into account. For this, the case needs to be analyzed with the correct
distribution of probabilities between the elements that contribute to the risk.
To give an example, say a risk assessor needs to analyze the annual environmental
risk related to accidental oil spills for an oil field in production. This is the Case.
The possible spills that contribute to the analysis case may be different DSHAs (see
Sect. 1.4.1) A DSHA may be pipeline leakages or blowouts from loss of well control
during drilling or maintenance, or other spill scenarios related to the activity or annual
activities on the field. The first step is to define which DSHAs that make up the case
1 Introduction to the Concepts and Use of ERA Acute
migration and wintering areas could be established using loggers and other tracking
devices, machine learning techniques etc. to estimate and validate distributions.
For NCS, the authors have prepared industry standard seabird data using species
distributions from the specialist scientific institutions Norwegian Polar Institute
(NPI) and Norwegian Institute of Nature Research (NINA) under the SEAPOP and
SEATRACK programs (http://www.seapop.no/en/). Data prepared by agent-based
modelling under MARAMBS (Marine Animal Ranging Assessment Model Barents
Sea, DHI) (http://marambs.dhigroup.com/) have also been utilized. Construction of
VEC data for the international validation cases are described in Sect. 4.1.4. For
all ERA Acute parameters, default values are suggested based on assessment of
available scientific knowledge. However, parameter values related to the VEC and
specific population in question should be assessed, tested and if necessary, adjusted
and validated for the specific VEC population.
1.4.3 Model Input Parameters
ERA Acute calculation functions use many parameters which have values that are
specific for certain species or regions (upper right light orange box in Fig. 1.1).
Recommended values based on literature studies are supplied for use in the Northern
Atlantic/NCS region with the software tool and documented in the methodology
development reports (Bjørgesæter and Damsgaard Jensen 2015; Brude et al. 2015;
Brönner et al. 2015; Stephansen et al. 2015). These values can be changed by the
user if other values are considered more appropriate for another specific region or
when future research provides new knowledge. However, it is strongly recommended
to obtain consensus for the parameter values used in analyses that are carried out
for example within the same regulatory framework or region, in order to compare
analyses.
1.5 From Spill Scenario to Case and from Damage to Risk
The basic concepts of impact and recovery calculation in ERA Acute have been
described in Sect. 1.3 and are described in greater detail in Chap. 3. In order to
calculate risk from the estimated consequences, the probability of the damage also
has to be taken into account. For this, the case needs to be analyzed with the correct
distribution of probabilities between the elements that contribute to the risk.
To give an example, say a risk assessor needs to analyze the annual environmental
risk related to accidental oil spills for an oil field in production. This is the Case.
The possible spills that contribute to the analysis case may be different DSHAs (see
Sect. 1.4.1) A DSHA may be pipeline leakages or blowouts from loss of well control
during drilling or maintenance, or other spill scenarios related to the activity or annual
activities on the field. The first step is to define which DSHAs that make up the case