106
5 Handling Uncertainty and Sensitivity …
Table 5.10 Prioritised parameters with a potential for improvement or parameters that have a high
impact on the result, with recommended action for uncertainty handling (shoreline, water column
and seafloor compartment parameters)
Parameter
Recommendation for improvement
Shoreline
Mass
High importance but proportional. Use oil drift model that uses a
state-of-the art calculation of beached mass, with best practice
settings
Patchiness factor
The value is a fixed value based on research. Lack of data available,
could be improved with more research. Value in 2020 is 0.30 based
on calibration
Slope
ESI-specific. Use best practice ESI dataset
Lag-time/Recovery time Fixed values that could be improved with more research
Water column
CM
Use a best practice recommendation for setting the Critical Mortality
value for when the gate model is used
Seafloor
TOC
Total organic content in the soft substrate determines the partitioning
between oil adhered to the substrate and oil that is bioavailable in
interstitial or gut water, and thereby the exposure and lethality. The
value may vary a lot regionally depending on the background
concentration of organic matter and substrate type. Monitoring
studies could include this parameter for regionally/nationally
improved quality of the substrate data
BDepth
Mixing depth scales the result proportionally and varies with the type
of burrowing fauna. The variation in results from different studies is
high. Monitoring studies could include this parameter for
regionally/nationally improved quality of the substrate data
WC oil concentration
Exposure through water column determines much of the impact for
all feeding modes that have exposure though water column. Best
result if using oil drift modelling that provides a separate water
column concentration from the bottom layer
THCsed
Start-value of oil concentration in the soft substrates. Use an oil drift
model that provides a state-of-the-art calculation of oil in the
sediment corrected for the substrate type (TOC-content)
References—Sensitivity Testing
Bjørgesæter A, Damsgaard-Jensen J (2018) WP2a. Sensitivity and uncertainty testing. ERA Acute
Project report, ERA Acute 2A-2
Gaber N, Foley G, Pascual P, Stiber N, Sunderland E, Cope B, Saleem Z (2009) Guidance on
the development, evaluation, and application of environmental models, Report, Council for
Regulatory Environmental Modeling. Report to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
Helton JC, Johnson JD, Sallaberry CJ, Storlie CB (2006) Survey of sampling-based methods for
uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 91:1175–1209
5 Handling Uncertainty and Sensitivity …
Table 5.10 Prioritised parameters with a potential for improvement or parameters that have a high
impact on the result, with recommended action for uncertainty handling (shoreline, water column
and seafloor compartment parameters)
Parameter
Recommendation for improvement
Shoreline
Mass
High importance but proportional. Use oil drift model that uses a
state-of-the art calculation of beached mass, with best practice
settings
Patchiness factor
The value is a fixed value based on research. Lack of data available,
could be improved with more research. Value in 2020 is 0.30 based
on calibration
Slope
ESI-specific. Use best practice ESI dataset
Lag-time/Recovery time Fixed values that could be improved with more research
Water column
CM
Use a best practice recommendation for setting the Critical Mortality
value for when the gate model is used
Seafloor
TOC
Total organic content in the soft substrate determines the partitioning
between oil adhered to the substrate and oil that is bioavailable in
interstitial or gut water, and thereby the exposure and lethality. The
value may vary a lot regionally depending on the background
concentration of organic matter and substrate type. Monitoring
studies could include this parameter for regionally/nationally
improved quality of the substrate data
BDepth
Mixing depth scales the result proportionally and varies with the type
of burrowing fauna. The variation in results from different studies is
high. Monitoring studies could include this parameter for
regionally/nationally improved quality of the substrate data
WC oil concentration
Exposure through water column determines much of the impact for
all feeding modes that have exposure though water column. Best
result if using oil drift modelling that provides a separate water
column concentration from the bottom layer
THCsed
Start-value of oil concentration in the soft substrates. Use an oil drift
model that provides a state-of-the-art calculation of oil in the
sediment corrected for the substrate type (TOC-content)
References—Sensitivity Testing
Bjørgesæter A, Damsgaard-Jensen J (2018) WP2a. Sensitivity and uncertainty testing. ERA Acute
Project report, ERA Acute 2A-2
Gaber N, Foley G, Pascual P, Stiber N, Sunderland E, Cope B, Saleem Z (2009) Guidance on
the development, evaluation, and application of environmental models, Report, Council for
Regulatory Environmental Modeling. Report to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
Helton JC, Johnson JD, Sallaberry CJ, Storlie CB (2006) Survey of sampling-based methods for
uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 91:1175–1209