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H. Kuroki et al.
we expect to be profitable in the future recycling business, as it will be positive in
about 5 years after the introduction of subsidies, and the increase in profits due to
the spread of EVs and HEVs.
Scenario 2: Improvement of recycling rate
In this scenario, we examine the impact of the waste recovery rate on the revenue to
determine the recycling rate needed to get a positive return.
We investigated the impact of waste collection rate on profitability when the
recycling business was started in 2020. When the recovery rate of waste products
was 100%, positive returns occurred after 5 years from 2020, but when the recovery
rate was 40%, positive returns were not achieved within 10 years. In Japan, the
recovery rate of units containing rare metals is said to be 30–40%, so no recovery
can be expected within 10 years with the current recovery rate. On the other hand,
positive income is expected within 10 years when the recovery rate reaches 60% or
more, so in order to build a sustainable recycling business, it is necessary to take
measures to increase the recovery rate of waste products.
27.5 Conclusion
In this study, we examined recovering and regenerating rare earth from nextgeneration vehicles (EV and HEV), and aimed at performing economic efficiency
evaluation with the risk of the new recycling business. We set two scenarios for
introducing a sustainable recycling business and evaluated the risk and economic
efficiency of each scenario. As a result, in Scenario 1 considering the introduction of
subsidies, when starting the REE recycling business in 2020, it was possible to start
the recycling business if subsidies of 22,000 yen could be obtained. Furthermore, it
was found that if the start date is set to 2025, no negative revenue will appear and
that the recycling business can be started immediately. In other words, in the current
stage of Japan, even if the recycling business is immediately started, sufficient profits
cannot be obtained, resulting in the outflow of waste products overseas. In Scenario
2 in which the effect of the recovery rate was investigated, if the recycling rate was
40%, the revenue would not be positive within 10 years. However, it was found that
if the recycling rate exceeds 60%, the revenue will be positive within 10 years.
As future task, it is necessary not to collect REE from next-generation vehicles
only, but to estimate home appliances that are the second largest application of REE
permanent magnets in Japan. Moreover, it is necessary to develop a model that takes
into consideration tariffs, etc., since this research does not take into consideration
international recycling that may progress in the future.
Acknowledgements This research was partially supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion
of Science (JSPS), KAKENHI, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), 16K01262 from 2015.
H. Kuroki et al.
we expect to be profitable in the future recycling business, as it will be positive in
about 5 years after the introduction of subsidies, and the increase in profits due to
the spread of EVs and HEVs.
Scenario 2: Improvement of recycling rate
In this scenario, we examine the impact of the waste recovery rate on the revenue to
determine the recycling rate needed to get a positive return.
We investigated the impact of waste collection rate on profitability when the
recycling business was started in 2020. When the recovery rate of waste products
was 100%, positive returns occurred after 5 years from 2020, but when the recovery
rate was 40%, positive returns were not achieved within 10 years. In Japan, the
recovery rate of units containing rare metals is said to be 30–40%, so no recovery
can be expected within 10 years with the current recovery rate. On the other hand,
positive income is expected within 10 years when the recovery rate reaches 60% or
more, so in order to build a sustainable recycling business, it is necessary to take
measures to increase the recovery rate of waste products.
27.5 Conclusion
In this study, we examined recovering and regenerating rare earth from nextgeneration vehicles (EV and HEV), and aimed at performing economic efficiency
evaluation with the risk of the new recycling business. We set two scenarios for
introducing a sustainable recycling business and evaluated the risk and economic
efficiency of each scenario. As a result, in Scenario 1 considering the introduction of
subsidies, when starting the REE recycling business in 2020, it was possible to start
the recycling business if subsidies of 22,000 yen could be obtained. Furthermore, it
was found that if the start date is set to 2025, no negative revenue will appear and
that the recycling business can be started immediately. In other words, in the current
stage of Japan, even if the recycling business is immediately started, sufficient profits
cannot be obtained, resulting in the outflow of waste products overseas. In Scenario
2 in which the effect of the recovery rate was investigated, if the recycling rate was
40%, the revenue would not be positive within 10 years. However, it was found that
if the recycling rate exceeds 60%, the revenue will be positive within 10 years.
As future task, it is necessary not to collect REE from next-generation vehicles
only, but to estimate home appliances that are the second largest application of REE
permanent magnets in Japan. Moreover, it is necessary to develop a model that takes
into consideration tariffs, etc., since this research does not take into consideration
international recycling that may progress in the future.
Acknowledgements This research was partially supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion
of Science (JSPS), KAKENHI, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), 16K01262 from 2015.