22 Analysis of Electric Vehicle Batteries Recoverability …
317
22.4.1 Forecast of the Japanese Vehicle Fleet
Figure 22.5a shows the forecast of the vehicles sales by power train in the market.
Here, it can be observed that the total sales of vehicles decrease moderately in the
coming years. This can be explained by the decrease of vehicle ownership in Japan
due to the reduction expected in the Japanese population for the following years. The
sales of electric vehicles are expected to reach 2.89 million units/year in 2030 and
remain almost constant in the following years.
Figure 22.5b shows the vehicle ownership forecast of the vehicles market. Here,
it is possible to observe the compatibility of the number of vehicles in the Japanese
fleet calculated in Fig. 22.3. Moreover, compared to sales, where it can be observed
a drastic change of the share to electric vehicles in the following years, the vehicle
fleet itself will be still predominated by ICEV in the next decade.
Figure 22.5c shows the forecast of the vehicle scrap. Here, it can be noted that
even substantial quantity of HVs are reaching its end on life, the amount of BEV and
PHEV expected to be collected until 2025 seem to be minimal.
Grey parts on the left side of each figure indicate past vehicle sales, ownership,
and scrap data, which are compatible with the values forecasted in this study.
22.4.2 Forecast of EVB Supply and Recovery
for the Japanese Vehicle Market
Size, weight, and capacity of the EVB vary widely depending on the type, power
train, and specifications of the vehicle. In this study, the capacity and weight of the
batteries have been considered, 2 kWh and 19 kg for HV, 9kWh and 89 kg for PHEV,
and 28 kWh and 210 kg for BEV (Dunn et al. 2012). It is worthly to mention that HVs
are powered by gasoline and electricity generated by the car’s own braking system,
PHEVs can also be recharged plugging into an external source of electrical power,
and BEVs are fully electric vehicles. The battery size varies depending on the degree
that electricity is used as their energy source.
Figure 22.6a shows the forecast of the EVB supply simulated by this model, here,
it can be noted that even though, in term of vehicles sales, HVs represent most of
its share, the demand of LiB for BEV is going to dominate the market considering
the energy required for it. Moreover, the EVB demand is going to increase rapidly
in the following years; however, it is expected to reach maturity near 2030 and meet
the peak in 2040.
Figure 22.6b shows the forecast of the EVB scrapped and the number of batteries
recovered from the ELVs. The uncolored section of the curve represents the number
of batteries that are supposed to be exported as used vehicles. The quantity of EVB
for recycling and reusing is expected to be minimal compared to the quantity of
battery to be supplied in the market in the following years.
317
22.4.1 Forecast of the Japanese Vehicle Fleet
Figure 22.5a shows the forecast of the vehicles sales by power train in the market.
Here, it can be observed that the total sales of vehicles decrease moderately in the
coming years. This can be explained by the decrease of vehicle ownership in Japan
due to the reduction expected in the Japanese population for the following years. The
sales of electric vehicles are expected to reach 2.89 million units/year in 2030 and
remain almost constant in the following years.
Figure 22.5b shows the vehicle ownership forecast of the vehicles market. Here,
it is possible to observe the compatibility of the number of vehicles in the Japanese
fleet calculated in Fig. 22.3. Moreover, compared to sales, where it can be observed
a drastic change of the share to electric vehicles in the following years, the vehicle
fleet itself will be still predominated by ICEV in the next decade.
Figure 22.5c shows the forecast of the vehicle scrap. Here, it can be noted that
even substantial quantity of HVs are reaching its end on life, the amount of BEV and
PHEV expected to be collected until 2025 seem to be minimal.
Grey parts on the left side of each figure indicate past vehicle sales, ownership,
and scrap data, which are compatible with the values forecasted in this study.
22.4.2 Forecast of EVB Supply and Recovery
for the Japanese Vehicle Market
Size, weight, and capacity of the EVB vary widely depending on the type, power
train, and specifications of the vehicle. In this study, the capacity and weight of the
batteries have been considered, 2 kWh and 19 kg for HV, 9kWh and 89 kg for PHEV,
and 28 kWh and 210 kg for BEV (Dunn et al. 2012). It is worthly to mention that HVs
are powered by gasoline and electricity generated by the car’s own braking system,
PHEVs can also be recharged plugging into an external source of electrical power,
and BEVs are fully electric vehicles. The battery size varies depending on the degree
that electricity is used as their energy source.
Figure 22.6a shows the forecast of the EVB supply simulated by this model, here,
it can be noted that even though, in term of vehicles sales, HVs represent most of
its share, the demand of LiB for BEV is going to dominate the market considering
the energy required for it. Moreover, the EVB demand is going to increase rapidly
in the following years; however, it is expected to reach maturity near 2030 and meet
the peak in 2040.
Figure 22.6b shows the forecast of the EVB scrapped and the number of batteries
recovered from the ELVs. The uncolored section of the curve represents the number
of batteries that are supposed to be exported as used vehicles. The quantity of EVB
for recycling and reusing is expected to be minimal compared to the quantity of
battery to be supplied in the market in the following years.