Earth System Models (ESMs), with coupled
oceans, cryosphere, vegetation, and so on.
The Montreal Protocol has controlled the
major anthropogenic sources of chlorine and bromine which reach the stratosphere. However, a
current research area concerns natural sources of
similar halogen species. There is clear evidence
that around 6 parts per trillion (pptv) of the current
stratospheric bromine loading of 21 pptv comes
from sources other than CH 3 Br and the halons
[22]. The species responsible are the so-called
very short-lived species (VSLS) such as
bromoform (CHBr 3 ) and dibromomethane
(CH 2 Br 2 ). Although these species have atmospheric lifetimes of around 6 months or less,
they can still be transported to the stratosphere
[23]. These species are emitted naturally from
the oceans and it is possible that future climate
change will increase these emissions. This natural
source of halogens offsets some of the reduction
in anthropogenic halogens and leads to lower
levels of stratospheric ozone.
There is currently a large debate on the possibilities of avoiding climate change by human
manipulation of the climate system, so-called
geoengineering. Among the various potential
geoengineering solutions that have been proposed, one relates directly to the stratosphere.
Scientists have suggested that humans could replicate the effect of a large volcanic eruption which
injects sulfate aerosol directly into the stratosphere [24]. The most recent such large natural
eruption was Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines in
June 1991. The impact of enhanced stratospheric
aerosol is to cool the surface – the desired effect
from a geoengineering point of view. However,
while atmospheric chlorine loadings remain high,
enhanced stratospheric aerosol will lead to ozone
destruction. The eruption of Mt. Pinatubo led to a
1–2% reduction in column ozone globally see (2).
As halogens decline in the future the impact of
aerosol on ozone will be less, as shown by simulations for the period of the large El Chichon
eruption in 1982, well before the peak in atmospheric chlorine and bromine [14]. The potential
side effects of such geoengineering options need
to be fully investigated and quantified with
detailed chemistry-climate models.
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