206
14 Risk Assessment for the Twenty-First Century
ORE studies are generally used to support decisions (go/no-go, system changes,
M&A, supply chain, etc.), tailings systems prioritizations, and insurance coverage decisions (business interruption, third-party liabilities, etc.) in mining and
ancillary activities. ORE is the result of over twenty years of continuous development and applications. ORE makes it possible to include uncertainties, interdependencies, and societal and corporate risk tolerance, and is ISO 31000 compatible. ORE has been successfully deployed to date for processes, dams portfolios, linear facilities (roads, railroads, pipes), mining, etc. For tailings dams portfolios there is a specific ORE subset application (https://www.riskope.com/2018/
11/21/tailings-dams-quantitative-risk-assessment/) named ORE2-Tailings (https://
www.riskope.com/2018/05/02/ore2-tailings-dam-analysis/) that we routinely use to
various degrees of sophistication.
14.5 Synergistic Methodologies
In order to fill the gaps and achieve the results outlined in Part I, the synergistic
approach encompassing an updatable, scalable, drillable and convergent Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) platform and space or drone observation monitoring (Sect. 9.2.1) as main or complementary to extant classic monitoring programs
(Sect. 9.1.2) are the instruments of choice.
Preliminary QRA deployment, using multiple data sources (Chap. 9), delivers initial estimates regarding probability of occurrence of various failure modes (Chap. 10),
consequences of those failure modes (Chap. 12), and preliminary alert thresholds.
They also provide results that assist in the setup of emergency procedures. Thanks to
space or drone observation technologies, it is then possible to confirm and gradually
calibrate extant data (Sect. 10.1.2), as well as validate old reports and their assumptions. In the next two sections we briefly describe the methodologies and tools as we
deploy them for single dams or portfolio studies.
The ORE QRA devoted to tailings uses the methods described in Chaps. 9–12 and
encompasses, when the SLM method is selected, thirty diagnostic points which have
been custom tailored to the needs of tailings dams during the development phases
(Oboni and Oboni 2013, 2016; Oboni et al. 2014). In fact, aspects such as construction
mode (downstream, centerline, upstream), the presence of pipes and traffic at crest,
water ponding, etc. were not explicitly considered in the SLM method. The thirty
diagnostic points (see Sect. 11.2.1) are used to determine the “category” of the dam
(ranging from 1—best in class to 4—poor), and belong to the following families:
• investigation;
• testing;
• analyses and documentation;
• construction;
• operations and Monitoring.
14 Risk Assessment for the Twenty-First Century
ORE studies are generally used to support decisions (go/no-go, system changes,
M&A, supply chain, etc.), tailings systems prioritizations, and insurance coverage decisions (business interruption, third-party liabilities, etc.) in mining and
ancillary activities. ORE is the result of over twenty years of continuous development and applications. ORE makes it possible to include uncertainties, interdependencies, and societal and corporate risk tolerance, and is ISO 31000 compatible. ORE has been successfully deployed to date for processes, dams portfolios, linear facilities (roads, railroads, pipes), mining, etc. For tailings dams portfolios there is a specific ORE subset application (https://www.riskope.com/2018/
11/21/tailings-dams-quantitative-risk-assessment/) named ORE2-Tailings (https://
www.riskope.com/2018/05/02/ore2-tailings-dam-analysis/) that we routinely use to
various degrees of sophistication.
14.5 Synergistic Methodologies
In order to fill the gaps and achieve the results outlined in Part I, the synergistic
approach encompassing an updatable, scalable, drillable and convergent Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) platform and space or drone observation monitoring (Sect. 9.2.1) as main or complementary to extant classic monitoring programs
(Sect. 9.1.2) are the instruments of choice.
Preliminary QRA deployment, using multiple data sources (Chap. 9), delivers initial estimates regarding probability of occurrence of various failure modes (Chap. 10),
consequences of those failure modes (Chap. 12), and preliminary alert thresholds.
They also provide results that assist in the setup of emergency procedures. Thanks to
space or drone observation technologies, it is then possible to confirm and gradually
calibrate extant data (Sect. 10.1.2), as well as validate old reports and their assumptions. In the next two sections we briefly describe the methodologies and tools as we
deploy them for single dams or portfolio studies.
The ORE QRA devoted to tailings uses the methods described in Chaps. 9–12 and
encompasses, when the SLM method is selected, thirty diagnostic points which have
been custom tailored to the needs of tailings dams during the development phases
(Oboni and Oboni 2013, 2016; Oboni et al. 2014). In fact, aspects such as construction
mode (downstream, centerline, upstream), the presence of pipes and traffic at crest,
water ponding, etc. were not explicitly considered in the SLM method. The thirty
diagnostic points (see Sect. 11.2.1) are used to determine the “category” of the dam
(ranging from 1—best in class to 4—poor), and belong to the following families:
• investigation;
• testing;
• analyses and documentation;
• construction;
• operations and Monitoring.