575
spill (e.g., sales by baitfish suppliers within the region to commercial or recreational anglers).
• Induced effects: The change in expenditures by households of employees and
business proprietors in directly and indirectly impacted businesses for personal
consumption of housing, utilities, groceries, etc.
Results were estimated for two study areas: the five states bordering the Gulf of
Mexico (Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida) and the 92 coastal
counties with geographical centroids within 50 miles of the Gulf of Mexico. Models
were constructed with the gravity model-based trade flows specification representing the share of commodities purchased from local sources and multipliers representing households as endogenous to the model.
Changes in commercial fishing revenues were entered into the models as changes
in final demand (industry sales) in the commercial fishing sector. The associated
values for direct changes in labor income, other property income, indirect business
taxes, and employment were imputed by IMPLAN© using regional averages per
unit industry output for 2013.
Changes in recreational fishing expenditures by category were entered into the
models as changes in final demand. Retail margins were applied to purchases in the
retail sectors using factors within the IMPLAN© software to adjust values for nonlocal manufacturing, transportation, and wholesaling and account for the difference
between the price a consumer pays for products at a retail location (purchaser price)
and the value of the same products at the factory door (producer price). Estimated
expenditures across the 2011–2020 time period for each affected recreation and
tourism sector were all entered in 2013 dollars (representing the midpoint of the
baseline data period) allowing the IMPLAN© software to apply industry-specific
deflators to express values in 2018 year dollars for reporting purposes.
33.6 Results
33.6.1 Commercial Fishing
The total volume of commercial catch for each scenario modeled is shown in
Fig. 33.1. For the period 2010–2020, commercial catch under the no oil scenario is
higher for all species modeled, except shrimp and crabs and lobsters. The catch of
species from the lower trophic levels may increase after an oil spill since these species populations increase when predator species populations from upper trophic levels are adversely impacted by the oil spill. For all species modeled, total commercial
catch is estimated to decrease by over 475,000 metric tons, largely driven by decreases
in catch volume of menhaden and mullets. This change in volume is associated with
a decrease of nearly $700 million in commercial catch value. Total commercial catch
value in the no oil scenario was roughly 4.63% higher than the oil scenario.
33 Effects of the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill on Human Communities: Catch…
spill (e.g., sales by baitfish suppliers within the region to commercial or recreational anglers).
• Induced effects: The change in expenditures by households of employees and
business proprietors in directly and indirectly impacted businesses for personal
consumption of housing, utilities, groceries, etc.
Results were estimated for two study areas: the five states bordering the Gulf of
Mexico (Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida) and the 92 coastal
counties with geographical centroids within 50 miles of the Gulf of Mexico. Models
were constructed with the gravity model-based trade flows specification representing the share of commodities purchased from local sources and multipliers representing households as endogenous to the model.
Changes in commercial fishing revenues were entered into the models as changes
in final demand (industry sales) in the commercial fishing sector. The associated
values for direct changes in labor income, other property income, indirect business
taxes, and employment were imputed by IMPLAN© using regional averages per
unit industry output for 2013.
Changes in recreational fishing expenditures by category were entered into the
models as changes in final demand. Retail margins were applied to purchases in the
retail sectors using factors within the IMPLAN© software to adjust values for nonlocal manufacturing, transportation, and wholesaling and account for the difference
between the price a consumer pays for products at a retail location (purchaser price)
and the value of the same products at the factory door (producer price). Estimated
expenditures across the 2011–2020 time period for each affected recreation and
tourism sector were all entered in 2013 dollars (representing the midpoint of the
baseline data period) allowing the IMPLAN© software to apply industry-specific
deflators to express values in 2018 year dollars for reporting purposes.
33.6 Results
33.6.1 Commercial Fishing
The total volume of commercial catch for each scenario modeled is shown in
Fig. 33.1. For the period 2010–2020, commercial catch under the no oil scenario is
higher for all species modeled, except shrimp and crabs and lobsters. The catch of
species from the lower trophic levels may increase after an oil spill since these species populations increase when predator species populations from upper trophic levels are adversely impacted by the oil spill. For all species modeled, total commercial
catch is estimated to decrease by over 475,000 metric tons, largely driven by decreases
in catch volume of menhaden and mullets. This change in volume is associated with
a decrease of nearly $700 million in commercial catch value. Total commercial catch
value in the no oil scenario was roughly 4.63% higher than the oil scenario.
33 Effects of the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill on Human Communities: Catch…