62
M. A. S. Abdel Monem and I. A. El Ghandour
2 Role of Science in the Assessment of Climate Change
Scenarios
2.1 At the Global Level
The science behind the fact that the atmosphere and oceans have warmed, sea levels
have risen, and glaciers and ice sheets have decreased in size is supported by extensive studies based on main lines of evidence: (1) Physical principles established long
time ago that carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), restrict the radiant flow of heat from Earth to
space. This mechanism, known as the ‘greenhouse effect’, keeps Earth’s surface and
lower atmosphere considerably warmer than they would otherwise be. An increase
in greenhouse gas concentrations raises the temperature of the surface. (2) Measurements from the recent past (the last 150 years) tell us that Earth’s surface has warmed
as atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases increased through human activities, and that this warming has led to other environmental changes. Although the
climate varies from decade to decade, the overall upward trend of average global
surface temperature over the last century is clear. (3) Climate models illustrate in
scientific presentation better understanding of the causes of past climate changes,
and to project the future climate change as well. Physical principles and knowledge of past models provide convincing evidences about the role of the increased in
greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere in causing the recent climate change.
It became obvious that, unless greenhouse gas emissions are reduced greatly, and
greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized, greenhouse warming will continue to
increase. (www.science.org.au/…/climate-change-r.pdf, Feb. 2015).
The Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) is a scientific body for the
assessment of climate change, established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the
world with a clear scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. The role of IPCC is to review
and assess the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic data and information relevant to the understanding of climate change that have been produced worldwide IPCC does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or
parameters (http://www.ipcc.ch/organization/organization.shtml, 2018). Thousands
of scientists from all over the world contribute to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary
basis. The review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and
complete assessment of current information. Different viewpoints existing within
the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports. Because of its scientific
and intergovernmental nature, the IPCC embodies a unique opportunity to provide
rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision makers.
IPCC report [2] indicated that human activities since 1750 until now are responsible “Golf the global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and
nitrous oxide and this increase far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice
cores spanning many thousands of years. The increases in the global carbon dioxide
concentration are due primarily to fossil fuel use and land use change, while those of
M. A. S. Abdel Monem and I. A. El Ghandour
2 Role of Science in the Assessment of Climate Change
Scenarios
2.1 At the Global Level
The science behind the fact that the atmosphere and oceans have warmed, sea levels
have risen, and glaciers and ice sheets have decreased in size is supported by extensive studies based on main lines of evidence: (1) Physical principles established long
time ago that carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), restrict the radiant flow of heat from Earth to
space. This mechanism, known as the ‘greenhouse effect’, keeps Earth’s surface and
lower atmosphere considerably warmer than they would otherwise be. An increase
in greenhouse gas concentrations raises the temperature of the surface. (2) Measurements from the recent past (the last 150 years) tell us that Earth’s surface has warmed
as atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases increased through human activities, and that this warming has led to other environmental changes. Although the
climate varies from decade to decade, the overall upward trend of average global
surface temperature over the last century is clear. (3) Climate models illustrate in
scientific presentation better understanding of the causes of past climate changes,
and to project the future climate change as well. Physical principles and knowledge of past models provide convincing evidences about the role of the increased in
greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere in causing the recent climate change.
It became obvious that, unless greenhouse gas emissions are reduced greatly, and
greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized, greenhouse warming will continue to
increase. (www.science.org.au/…/climate-change-r.pdf, Feb. 2015).
The Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) is a scientific body for the
assessment of climate change, established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the
world with a clear scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. The role of IPCC is to review
and assess the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic data and information relevant to the understanding of climate change that have been produced worldwide IPCC does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or
parameters (http://www.ipcc.ch/organization/organization.shtml, 2018). Thousands
of scientists from all over the world contribute to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary
basis. The review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and
complete assessment of current information. Different viewpoints existing within
the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports. Because of its scientific
and intergovernmental nature, the IPCC embodies a unique opportunity to provide
rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision makers.
IPCC report [2] indicated that human activities since 1750 until now are responsible “Golf the global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and
nitrous oxide and this increase far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice
cores spanning many thousands of years. The increases in the global carbon dioxide
concentration are due primarily to fossil fuel use and land use change, while those of