Climate Impact on Egyptian Agriculture: An Efficiency …
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productivity of field crops like wheat, soybean, groundnut, and potato because of
1 °C increase in the temperature. Kumar and Parikh [32] indicated that CC would
affect significantly rice and wheat production and wheat by 2060, which are a staple
food necessary for the livelihood and food security of the Indian population. Geethalakshmi et al. [33] have provided evidence of a 41% decline in the production of
production due to the increase in the temperature by 4 °C in Tamil Nadu.
Berg et al. [34] used agro-DGVM model (Dynamical Global Vegetation Model)
driven by projections from several climate models and two (Special Report on Emissions) SRES scenarios to assess CC influences on possible C4 crop productivity
in Africa and India for the period 1960–2100. The authors distinguish the impact
of rising CO 2 emissions. They adopted transient simulations by the climate model
outputs: to ensure the analysis consistency regardless of regional biases, investigate
yield change using bioclimatic basis rather than geographical basis. The results of the
analysis show a decreased average productivity of millet crop, which is considered
an important staple crops in those regions, by −6% (projections range from −29
to +11%). The overall effect is yield decrease over the Equatorial and Temperate
Köppen zones; significant inconsistencies change of yields that arise in Arid Köppen zones because of uncertainty in precipitation projections compared with climate
models. Finally, the authors have concluded that climatic impacts put more pressure
to achieve food security in developing countries in the Tropics, and these impacts
can be alleviated through adopting adaptation practices and best farming practices.
Deryng et al. [35] used a global crop model, PEGASUS 1.0 (Predicting Ecosystem
Goods And Services Using Scenarios) that incorporates the different indicators of
planting dates, cultivar choices, type of irrigation and fertilization of the crop yield
for maize, soybean, and spring wheat, in addition to climate indicators. The results
of the model are consistent with global data. Additionally, the used planting and
harvesting dates are found to be within crop calendar observations of almost 75% of
the total crop-harvested areas. The authors found that variations in the temperature
and rainfall lead to yield reduction, which as predicted by global climate models
for the 2050s considering planting and harvesting dates remain unchanged. While
adopting adaptation strategies for planting dates and choosing suitable cultivars can
help increase yield in temperate regions and evades 7–18% of global losses.
CC influences different aspects of the economy from infrastructure, health,
ecosystem, food and water security, to displacement. Logistical infrastructure like
roads and bridges and services infrastructures like power and water stations are
impacted due to flood, landslides and heavy rainfalls. The previous literature has
shown evidence on the consequences of extreme climate change-induced events that
influence road networks in Africa in for food security purposes [36]. In different
African countries like those that Ethiopia, Uganda, Ghana, and Tanzania have gone
through drought events which affected their dams and caused a reduction in the
hydropower generation [37]. For the case of human health, CC increases the occurrence and gravity of disease outbreaks. The literature has shown that hard climate
conditions like increased temperature and high rainfall levels are enabling causes for
malaria epidemics in Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia, Tanzania [38].
611
productivity of field crops like wheat, soybean, groundnut, and potato because of
1 °C increase in the temperature. Kumar and Parikh [32] indicated that CC would
affect significantly rice and wheat production and wheat by 2060, which are a staple
food necessary for the livelihood and food security of the Indian population. Geethalakshmi et al. [33] have provided evidence of a 41% decline in the production of
production due to the increase in the temperature by 4 °C in Tamil Nadu.
Berg et al. [34] used agro-DGVM model (Dynamical Global Vegetation Model)
driven by projections from several climate models and two (Special Report on Emissions) SRES scenarios to assess CC influences on possible C4 crop productivity
in Africa and India for the period 1960–2100. The authors distinguish the impact
of rising CO 2 emissions. They adopted transient simulations by the climate model
outputs: to ensure the analysis consistency regardless of regional biases, investigate
yield change using bioclimatic basis rather than geographical basis. The results of the
analysis show a decreased average productivity of millet crop, which is considered
an important staple crops in those regions, by −6% (projections range from −29
to +11%). The overall effect is yield decrease over the Equatorial and Temperate
Köppen zones; significant inconsistencies change of yields that arise in Arid Köppen zones because of uncertainty in precipitation projections compared with climate
models. Finally, the authors have concluded that climatic impacts put more pressure
to achieve food security in developing countries in the Tropics, and these impacts
can be alleviated through adopting adaptation practices and best farming practices.
Deryng et al. [35] used a global crop model, PEGASUS 1.0 (Predicting Ecosystem
Goods And Services Using Scenarios) that incorporates the different indicators of
planting dates, cultivar choices, type of irrigation and fertilization of the crop yield
for maize, soybean, and spring wheat, in addition to climate indicators. The results
of the model are consistent with global data. Additionally, the used planting and
harvesting dates are found to be within crop calendar observations of almost 75% of
the total crop-harvested areas. The authors found that variations in the temperature
and rainfall lead to yield reduction, which as predicted by global climate models
for the 2050s considering planting and harvesting dates remain unchanged. While
adopting adaptation strategies for planting dates and choosing suitable cultivars can
help increase yield in temperate regions and evades 7–18% of global losses.
CC influences different aspects of the economy from infrastructure, health,
ecosystem, food and water security, to displacement. Logistical infrastructure like
roads and bridges and services infrastructures like power and water stations are
impacted due to flood, landslides and heavy rainfalls. The previous literature has
shown evidence on the consequences of extreme climate change-induced events that
influence road networks in Africa in for food security purposes [36]. In different
African countries like those that Ethiopia, Uganda, Ghana, and Tanzania have gone
through drought events which affected their dams and caused a reduction in the
hydropower generation [37]. For the case of human health, CC increases the occurrence and gravity of disease outbreaks. The literature has shown that hard climate
conditions like increased temperature and high rainfall levels are enabling causes for
malaria epidemics in Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia, Tanzania [38].