544
D. M. Gouda
4.2.3 Combined Climate Change Stimuli Impact on Agriculture
in the Nile Delta Governorates in 2030
The combined impact of the climate change stimuli of temperature increase and SLR
on agriculture in the Nile Delta governorates in 2030 is presented in Table 5.
The loss of field crops’ area would be 0.04% of the total field crops’ area in
Egypt. This accounts for about 2480 feddan and 4463 feddan cropping area in the
four governorates (Damietta, Daqahlia, Sharkia and Kafr El-Sheikh) caused by SLR,
as the potential impact of temperature increase on marginal agricultural land is not
quantified.
The total impact of temperature increase and SLR on agricultural field crops’
production is a decrease of about 4.4% of total field crops’ production in Egypt
based on 2015 data. This is to reduce the total field crops’ net value by about 5%,
despite the increase in cotton production by about 9% and its net value by about
10.5% of total cotton production and net value in Egypt. The small area cultivated
with cotton mainly in Kafr El-Sheikh, Beheira and Damietta governorates with about
Table 5 Impact of temperature increase and SLR on agriculture in the Nile Delta governorates in
2030
Field
Crops’
Group
%
reduction
of field
crops’
agricultural
land area in
the Nile
Delta of
total Egypt
%
reduction/increase
of field crops’
production in the
Nile Delta of total
Egypt
%
reduction/increase
of field crops’ net
value in the Nile
Delta of total
Egypt
% increase
of field
crops’ water
requirements
in the Nile
Delta of total
Egypt
%
reduction
of field
crops’
working
days in
the Nile
Delta of
total
Egypt
Cereals
0.03
5.04
4.32
1.98
0.03
Sugar
crops
0.06
0.37
0.34
0.54
0.05
Oil crops
0.01
1.09
1.08
0.89
0.01
Pulses
0.06
9.06
3.97
1.51
0.07
Vegetables 0.02
7.21
6.02
1.40
0.02
Clover
(berseem)
0.04
5.17
6.99
2.48
0.04
Medicinal
crops
0.01
2.54
4.66
0.28
0.01
Cotton
0.11
(+8.64)
(+10.48)
2.21
0.11
%
Reduction
of total
Egypt
0.04
4.42
4.95
1.71
0.03
Source Calculated by the Author based on ETNC [49], Smith et al. [7], Capmas [13]
D. M. Gouda
4.2.3 Combined Climate Change Stimuli Impact on Agriculture
in the Nile Delta Governorates in 2030
The combined impact of the climate change stimuli of temperature increase and SLR
on agriculture in the Nile Delta governorates in 2030 is presented in Table 5.
The loss of field crops’ area would be 0.04% of the total field crops’ area in
Egypt. This accounts for about 2480 feddan and 4463 feddan cropping area in the
four governorates (Damietta, Daqahlia, Sharkia and Kafr El-Sheikh) caused by SLR,
as the potential impact of temperature increase on marginal agricultural land is not
quantified.
The total impact of temperature increase and SLR on agricultural field crops’
production is a decrease of about 4.4% of total field crops’ production in Egypt
based on 2015 data. This is to reduce the total field crops’ net value by about 5%,
despite the increase in cotton production by about 9% and its net value by about
10.5% of total cotton production and net value in Egypt. The small area cultivated
with cotton mainly in Kafr El-Sheikh, Beheira and Damietta governorates with about
Table 5 Impact of temperature increase and SLR on agriculture in the Nile Delta governorates in
2030
Field
Crops’
Group
%
reduction
of field
crops’
agricultural
land area in
the Nile
Delta of
total Egypt
%
reduction/increase
of field crops’
production in the
Nile Delta of total
Egypt
%
reduction/increase
of field crops’ net
value in the Nile
Delta of total
Egypt
% increase
of field
crops’ water
requirements
in the Nile
Delta of total
Egypt
%
reduction
of field
crops’
working
days in
the Nile
Delta of
total
Egypt
Cereals
0.03
5.04
4.32
1.98
0.03
Sugar
crops
0.06
0.37
0.34
0.54
0.05
Oil crops
0.01
1.09
1.08
0.89
0.01
Pulses
0.06
9.06
3.97
1.51
0.07
Vegetables 0.02
7.21
6.02
1.40
0.02
Clover
(berseem)
0.04
5.17
6.99
2.48
0.04
Medicinal
crops
0.01
2.54
4.66
0.28
0.01
Cotton
0.11
(+8.64)
(+10.48)
2.21
0.11
%
Reduction
of total
Egypt
0.04
4.42
4.95
1.71
0.03
Source Calculated by the Author based on ETNC [49], Smith et al. [7], Capmas [13]