228
M. A. M. Osman and M. A. Shebl
loss of biodiversity is considered one of today’s most serious environmental concerns
by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) [51]. This diversity is therefore
important for all scales of crops and food security. If a particular crop variety fails due
to any environmental stresses entailing shifts in temperature, precipitation, drought,
flooding or disease, another variety can survive to avoid food shortages.
Changes in long-term environmental conditions that known as climate change had
enormous impacts on current plant diversity patterns; further impacts are expected in
the future. It is recognized that climate change will remain one of the major drivers of
biodiversity patterns in the future. Climate change plays a key role in plant diversity,
as well as its productivity.
Climate change having substantial, often negative, impacts on farming systems
worldwide. It is affecting a diversity of species in a variety of ways [52–54]. In
general, it is predicted that the tropics will suffer the most from the effects of increased
and sporadic temperature spikes and decreased and sporadic precipitation [55, 54].
There is already evidence that plant species are shifting their ranges in altitude and
latitude as a response to changing regional climates. Climate change has already led
to shifts in the species distribution in many parts of the world. In the future, it is
expected that there will be increasing impacts; however few studies have aimed for
a general understanding of the regional basis for species vulnerability.
Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate variability, a situation
exacerbated by multiple stresses that interact in various levels and the low adaptive
capacity [56]. In Africa, the distribution of crops will vary in the future according to
the expected impact of climate change as follows [57]:
• In the event of a change to a very hot climate, more fruits and vegetables will be
cultivated.
• In the event of a change to a mild and humid climate, more millet will be grown,
except in low dry savannas and semi-arid lowlands.
• In all possible scenarios, maize selection will be significantly reduced in all regions.
• Wheat cultivation will be decreased across Africa as the climate warms.
In many areas, the crop varieties and species currently grown by farmers cannot
tolerate these stresses in climate change, with resultant losses in productivity, and
potentially negative consequences for food security. According to IPCC and other
studies, temperature increases of 1–2 °C will increase production of some of the
world’s major staples, while temperature increases of more than 2 °C will have
increasingly negative impacts [58].
Researchers predict that 20–30% of the species in the Arab world will become
extinct if the temperature rises only 1 degree. Yemen has the highest number of
threatened species, with 159 species, Somalia has 17 threatened species, and Jordan,
Egypt, Saudi Arabia and others combined more than 80 endangered species, including the cedar forests in Lebanon and Syria. Amongst the many threatened species
are wild relatives of our crops that possess valuable traits for crop breeding, such
as pest and disease resistance. Almost 6% of relative wild species of cereal crops
such as wheat, maize, rice, and sorghum, about 18% of legumes as beans, peas and
Précédent

- 232/646

Suivant