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M. A. S. Abdel Monem and B. Radojevic
growth, poverty and poor nutrition, accumulating levels of air, land and water pollution and ever-growing gender and class inequalities. Sea Level Rise would destroy
parts of the protective offshore sand belt, already weakened by reduced sediment
flows. In the future decade and in the absence of adaptive action, 3.3% of total
land area of the Nile Delta will be lost to the sea, including the submersion of
approximately 16 km
2 of fertile currently cultivated land [18].
To combat coastal erosion, the Egyptian Shore Protection Authority has been
focusing on the construction of ‘hard’ coastal protection structures including jetties,
groins, seawalls and breakwaters. The total cost of the required activities was estimated at US$200 million. Only a small fraction of these infrastructural solutions
were implemented. Even if fully implemented, these solutions would lead to more
negative impacts such as sediment transport and blockage of waterways due to an
improper understanding of longer-term coastal dynamics associated with climate
change [18].
4.2 Vulnerability of the Crop Production System
The ‘Regional Initiative for the Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Water
Resources and Socio-Economic Vulnerability in the Arab Region’ [14] indicted that,
the highest vulnerability of the cropland systems in the Arab Region is assessed
to three regions including the Nile valley. The vulnerability increases from the
moderate-case to the worse-case scenario and from mid-century to end-century.
Climate change studies Abou-Hadid [21] and Hassanein and Medany [22], predicted reduction in the productivity of two major crops in Egypt—wheat and maize—
by 15% and 19% respectively by 2050. Losses in crop productivity are mainly
attributed to the projected temperature increase, crop-water stress, pests and disease,
as well as the inundation and salinization.
Because of its exceptional importance to the Egyptian diet, wheat received great
attention with regards to the future impact of climate change on its production; Khalil
et al. [23] studied effect of climate change on the yield of three wheat varieties (Sids1,
Sakha 93 and Giza 168) in Egypt using CropSyst model with two climate change
scenarios. These scenarios were A2 (temperature increase by 3.1 °C and CO 2 concentration is 834 ppm) and B2 (temperature increase by 2.2 °C and CO 2 concentration
is 601 ppm). Results indicated that A2 scenario predicted greater reduction in wheat
yield, compared with B2 scenario in the year of 2038 and also indicated that varieties
showed different vulnerability to climate change scenarios.
However, results of the projected impact of climate change on crops should be
carefully examined taking into considerations the physiological effects of the elevated
CO 2 enrichment on crop production. Degener [24] highlighted two mechanisms that
responsible for the impact of elevated, CO 2 on crop yield. One mechanism is when
photosynthesis rate raises, resulting in more energy and thus a quicker development
of the plant in what is referred to as “the fertilization effect of CO 2 ”. The second
mechanism through which an increase in CO 2 reduces the amount of water needed to
M. A. S. Abdel Monem and B. Radojevic
growth, poverty and poor nutrition, accumulating levels of air, land and water pollution and ever-growing gender and class inequalities. Sea Level Rise would destroy
parts of the protective offshore sand belt, already weakened by reduced sediment
flows. In the future decade and in the absence of adaptive action, 3.3% of total
land area of the Nile Delta will be lost to the sea, including the submersion of
approximately 16 km
2 of fertile currently cultivated land [18].
To combat coastal erosion, the Egyptian Shore Protection Authority has been
focusing on the construction of ‘hard’ coastal protection structures including jetties,
groins, seawalls and breakwaters. The total cost of the required activities was estimated at US$200 million. Only a small fraction of these infrastructural solutions
were implemented. Even if fully implemented, these solutions would lead to more
negative impacts such as sediment transport and blockage of waterways due to an
improper understanding of longer-term coastal dynamics associated with climate
change [18].
4.2 Vulnerability of the Crop Production System
The ‘Regional Initiative for the Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Water
Resources and Socio-Economic Vulnerability in the Arab Region’ [14] indicted that,
the highest vulnerability of the cropland systems in the Arab Region is assessed
to three regions including the Nile valley. The vulnerability increases from the
moderate-case to the worse-case scenario and from mid-century to end-century.
Climate change studies Abou-Hadid [21] and Hassanein and Medany [22], predicted reduction in the productivity of two major crops in Egypt—wheat and maize—
by 15% and 19% respectively by 2050. Losses in crop productivity are mainly
attributed to the projected temperature increase, crop-water stress, pests and disease,
as well as the inundation and salinization.
Because of its exceptional importance to the Egyptian diet, wheat received great
attention with regards to the future impact of climate change on its production; Khalil
et al. [23] studied effect of climate change on the yield of three wheat varieties (Sids1,
Sakha 93 and Giza 168) in Egypt using CropSyst model with two climate change
scenarios. These scenarios were A2 (temperature increase by 3.1 °C and CO 2 concentration is 834 ppm) and B2 (temperature increase by 2.2 °C and CO 2 concentration
is 601 ppm). Results indicated that A2 scenario predicted greater reduction in wheat
yield, compared with B2 scenario in the year of 2038 and also indicated that varieties
showed different vulnerability to climate change scenarios.
However, results of the projected impact of climate change on crops should be
carefully examined taking into considerations the physiological effects of the elevated
CO 2 enrichment on crop production. Degener [24] highlighted two mechanisms that
responsible for the impact of elevated, CO 2 on crop yield. One mechanism is when
photosynthesis rate raises, resulting in more energy and thus a quicker development
of the plant in what is referred to as “the fertilization effect of CO 2 ”. The second
mechanism through which an increase in CO 2 reduces the amount of water needed to