Spatial Shift in Chickpeas in India
419
The factors influencing area and yield were both price and non-price factors
like the lagged area under the crop, price of the crop relative to the price of other
commodities competing with it for land and other inputs, irrigated area, and prices
of inputs relative to crop price. Rainfall is the factor representing climate and other
environmental factors. Since regression is run in double log format, the coefficients
are directly the elasticities. Result of regression analysis are presented in Tables 10
and 11 for area and yield, respectively. It is seen from the statistics in tables that own
price has a direct impact on area cultivated under chickpeas. With ten per cent increase
in price of chickpea, there is approximately 2% increase in area under chickpea.
On the opposite, with ten per cent increase in competing crop price, area under
chickpea declines by 2%. The impact of irrigation on area cultivated of chickpea
is negligible as this variable is highly significant indicating the rain fed nature of
area under chickpea crop. However, climate is a dominant determinant of area under
this pulse crop. Normal rainfall leads to increase in area under chickpea whereas
below normal rainfall and high fluctuations and untimely rainfall leads to reduction
in area under chickpea. Turning to the yield determinants, increase in real price
of chickpea indirectly leads to increase in productivity through better utilization of
resource inputs. Similarly, higher use of fertilizer results in better productivity of
chickpea. Normal rainfall not only increases area under chickpea but it also leads
to incremental effect on productivity although better irrigation facilities may divert
land as well as other input resources away from chickpea. Coefficient for time trend
indicates increase in productivity of chickpea over time also reflecting technology
improvement like high yielding variety seeds over time. The value of R
−2 and F
statistics indicate the good fitness of regression for both area as well as yield indicating
determinants well explaining the dependent variable.
Table 10 Factors
determining area sown under
Chickpeas—All India
Dependent Variable—Log
area under Chickpea
Variable
Coefficient t-Statistic Prob.
Log Real FHP_rabi pulses 0.194
(1.6)
0.1196
Log Real FHP_competing
crop
−0.187
−(1.5)
0.1567
Log Rainfal
0.537
(3.1)
0.0043
Log Irrigation
−0.035
−(1.2)
0.2458
Log Lagged Dep
0.510
(3.4)
0.0017
Constant
−1.393
−(1.6)
0.126
R-squared
0.63
Adjusted R-squared
0.57
F-statistic
10.52
Prob (F-statistic)
0.00
D-W stat
1.64
No of observations
37
419
The factors influencing area and yield were both price and non-price factors
like the lagged area under the crop, price of the crop relative to the price of other
commodities competing with it for land and other inputs, irrigated area, and prices
of inputs relative to crop price. Rainfall is the factor representing climate and other
environmental factors. Since regression is run in double log format, the coefficients
are directly the elasticities. Result of regression analysis are presented in Tables 10
and 11 for area and yield, respectively. It is seen from the statistics in tables that own
price has a direct impact on area cultivated under chickpeas. With ten per cent increase
in price of chickpea, there is approximately 2% increase in area under chickpea.
On the opposite, with ten per cent increase in competing crop price, area under
chickpea declines by 2%. The impact of irrigation on area cultivated of chickpea
is negligible as this variable is highly significant indicating the rain fed nature of
area under chickpea crop. However, climate is a dominant determinant of area under
this pulse crop. Normal rainfall leads to increase in area under chickpea whereas
below normal rainfall and high fluctuations and untimely rainfall leads to reduction
in area under chickpea. Turning to the yield determinants, increase in real price
of chickpea indirectly leads to increase in productivity through better utilization of
resource inputs. Similarly, higher use of fertilizer results in better productivity of
chickpea. Normal rainfall not only increases area under chickpea but it also leads
to incremental effect on productivity although better irrigation facilities may divert
land as well as other input resources away from chickpea. Coefficient for time trend
indicates increase in productivity of chickpea over time also reflecting technology
improvement like high yielding variety seeds over time. The value of R
−2 and F
statistics indicate the good fitness of regression for both area as well as yield indicating
determinants well explaining the dependent variable.
Table 10 Factors
determining area sown under
Chickpeas—All India
Dependent Variable—Log
area under Chickpea
Variable
Coefficient t-Statistic Prob.
Log Real FHP_rabi pulses 0.194
(1.6)
0.1196
Log Real FHP_competing
crop
−0.187
−(1.5)
0.1567
Log Rainfal
0.537
(3.1)
0.0043
Log Irrigation
−0.035
−(1.2)
0.2458
Log Lagged Dep
0.510
(3.4)
0.0017
Constant
−1.393
−(1.6)
0.126
R-squared
0.63
Adjusted R-squared
0.57
F-statistic
10.52
Prob (F-statistic)
0.00
D-W stat
1.64
No of observations
37