303
In many national economies, the social importance of coastal zones is due to
the numerous social and economic activities concentrated near the shoreline. As
Nguyen et al. (2016) assert, the importance of these zones will be further intensified in the future because of the ever-increasing number of people inhabiting them.
Adger et al. (2005) state that 1.2 billion people—which accounts for 23% of the
world’s population—are now living within 100 km of the coast and about 50% of
the world’s population is likely to do so by 2030 (Neumann et al. 2015). In coastal
countries characterized by having a long heterogeneous coastline as Mexico, to be
able to precisely assess the vulnerability to the stress factors associated with climate
change in coastal municipalities is a great challenge, since it involves taking into
account social and ecological components, as well as multiple temporal and spatial
interactions.
In the complex socio-ecological system of the coastal fringe in Mexico, the traditional—agriculture, fisheries, and forestry activities—and the growing new economic sectors—tourism, urbanization, aquaculture, and mariculture—compete
along the 11,000 km long coastline, where, according to Lang’s index, 36% of the
271 coastal municipalities are presently arid or desert; a condition that is apparently
increasing its surface according to the general climate change models that were to
be used in our study. The methodological approach put forward in the present work
allows to set priorities by identifying groups of more threatened and less prepared
municipalities: those which show more differences between present climatological
parameter values and predicted future climatic scenarios values (through an aridity
indicator), have less climate change related institutional instruments (adaptation
capacity building), present social weaknesses (poverty and inequality), or show
environmental degradation. Results will be usefull as input for promoting public
policies and constructing governance in the socio-economic-political context of an
emerging country immersed in an increasingly globalized world.
Synthesis of the Major Conceptual Advances Made During the
Past 25 Years
Indicators of Vulnerability to Climate Change Used
for the World’s Coasts
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) defines an
indicator as: “a parameter (property that is measured and observed), or value derived
from other parameters, aimed at providing information and describing the state of a
phenomenon, environment or area, with an added meaning greater than that directly
associated with its own value (Nardo et al. 2005; OECD 2000, 2003).”
Indicators are a support for the evaluation and monitoring of the dynamic and
complex ecosystems and their economic development. These indicators contribute to
the development of governmental proposals, guiding policies and actions of society,
and provide timely information to decision makers (Azuz-Adeath et al. 2010a).
17 Vulnerability to the Effects of Climate Change: Future Aridness and Present…
In many national economies, the social importance of coastal zones is due to
the numerous social and economic activities concentrated near the shoreline. As
Nguyen et al. (2016) assert, the importance of these zones will be further intensified in the future because of the ever-increasing number of people inhabiting them.
Adger et al. (2005) state that 1.2 billion people—which accounts for 23% of the
world’s population—are now living within 100 km of the coast and about 50% of
the world’s population is likely to do so by 2030 (Neumann et al. 2015). In coastal
countries characterized by having a long heterogeneous coastline as Mexico, to be
able to precisely assess the vulnerability to the stress factors associated with climate
change in coastal municipalities is a great challenge, since it involves taking into
account social and ecological components, as well as multiple temporal and spatial
interactions.
In the complex socio-ecological system of the coastal fringe in Mexico, the traditional—agriculture, fisheries, and forestry activities—and the growing new economic sectors—tourism, urbanization, aquaculture, and mariculture—compete
along the 11,000 km long coastline, where, according to Lang’s index, 36% of the
271 coastal municipalities are presently arid or desert; a condition that is apparently
increasing its surface according to the general climate change models that were to
be used in our study. The methodological approach put forward in the present work
allows to set priorities by identifying groups of more threatened and less prepared
municipalities: those which show more differences between present climatological
parameter values and predicted future climatic scenarios values (through an aridity
indicator), have less climate change related institutional instruments (adaptation
capacity building), present social weaknesses (poverty and inequality), or show
environmental degradation. Results will be usefull as input for promoting public
policies and constructing governance in the socio-economic-political context of an
emerging country immersed in an increasingly globalized world.
Synthesis of the Major Conceptual Advances Made During the
Past 25 Years
Indicators of Vulnerability to Climate Change Used
for the World’s Coasts
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) defines an
indicator as: “a parameter (property that is measured and observed), or value derived
from other parameters, aimed at providing information and describing the state of a
phenomenon, environment or area, with an added meaning greater than that directly
associated with its own value (Nardo et al. 2005; OECD 2000, 2003).”
Indicators are a support for the evaluation and monitoring of the dynamic and
complex ecosystems and their economic development. These indicators contribute to
the development of governmental proposals, guiding policies and actions of society,
and provide timely information to decision makers (Azuz-Adeath et al. 2010a).
17 Vulnerability to the Effects of Climate Change: Future Aridness and Present…