reduction potential associated with the installation of end-of-pipe control technologies will decrease, highlighting the importance of energy-saving measures in achieving further reductions in SO 2 emissions.
2. NO x emissions. As shown in Fig. 1, the emissions of NO x in 2010 are generally
consistently estimated to have been 26–29 Tg (Zhao et al. 2013a, c; Xia et al. 2016,
MEIC v1.2). Power plants, industry, and transportation are the major contributors
to the total emissions, and these sectors have shares of 28–34%, 34%, and 25%,
respectively (Zhao et al. 2013a; Shi et al. 2014, MEIC v1.2). The power and
transportation sectors contributed 9 Tg and 7 Tg to the total emissions in 2010,
respectively (MEICv1.2). The industrial sector has become the main contributor
since 2010, accounting for average values of 38% of the total emissions. The sector
distributions remain relatively stable, although the industrial sector displays
increases, whereas the power sector displays decreases (Li et al. 2017b).
Driven by the rapid economic development and the lack of relevant emission
controls, NO x emissions increased during both the 10th FYP and the 11th FYP
(Ohara et al. 2007; Kurokawa et al. 2013, EDGAR v4.2, MEIC v1.2). The rate of
growth in NO x emissions was 10.3% from 2000 to 2005 and 5.7% from 2005 to
2010 (MEIC v1.2). The rapid increases in NO x over China during this period are
confirmed by satellite-based observations (Richter et al. 2005; Berezin et al. 2013;
Gu et al. 2013; Mijling et al. 2013; Itahashi et al. 2014; Krotkov et al. 2016;
Miyazaki et al. 2017). During the 12th FYP, the government of China set a target
of reducing NO x emissions in 2015 by 10% compared to 2010. To achieve this goal,
end-of-pipe pollutant abatement strategies were carried out nationwide for the
power, industry, and transportation sectors, and these strategies tended to be effective in controlling NO x emissions (Zhao et al. 2014, 2013a, b). During 2010–2017,
with upgraded emission standards and the spread of the “ultralow emission” technique, the new emission limit values have further driven down power plant emissions, which is the dominant driving force of the decrease in NO x emissions, while
industrial combustion sources lack an effective control on NO x (Zheng et al. 2018).
The release of emission standards for vehicles also had a significant effect in terms of
limiting emissions, especially in the urbanized regions, such as Beijing and Shanghai
(Liu et al. 2016). As shown in Fig. 2.3, the contribution of off-road transport to NO x
emissions is estimated to have increased from 8% to 12% during 2010–2017 and
thus ranked as the fourth largest single sector in 2017.
It is predicted that dramatic reductions in emissions of NO x can be achieved if
end-of-pipe facilities are installed and stringent vehicle standards are applied in
2030. Zhao et al. (2014) predict that the NO x emissions will decrease by 20%
from 2010 to 2030 in a best-guess scenario, and they will be further reduced 24%
if the issued and proposed emission standards are fully achieved. As predicted by
Zhao B et al. (2013a), by 2030, NO x emissions are projected to increase by 36% in
the baseline case. In the most stringent control scenario, in which SCR (selective
catalytic reduction)/SNCR (selective non-catalytic reduction) systems are installed
and stringent vehicle standards are applied, emissions would decrease by 61%
compared to the 2010 level. This reduction was updated by Wang et al. (2014) to
72% using the same prediction framework.
22
Q. Zhang et al.
2. NO x emissions. As shown in Fig. 1, the emissions of NO x in 2010 are generally
consistently estimated to have been 26–29 Tg (Zhao et al. 2013a, c; Xia et al. 2016,
MEIC v1.2). Power plants, industry, and transportation are the major contributors
to the total emissions, and these sectors have shares of 28–34%, 34%, and 25%,
respectively (Zhao et al. 2013a; Shi et al. 2014, MEIC v1.2). The power and
transportation sectors contributed 9 Tg and 7 Tg to the total emissions in 2010,
respectively (MEICv1.2). The industrial sector has become the main contributor
since 2010, accounting for average values of 38% of the total emissions. The sector
distributions remain relatively stable, although the industrial sector displays
increases, whereas the power sector displays decreases (Li et al. 2017b).
Driven by the rapid economic development and the lack of relevant emission
controls, NO x emissions increased during both the 10th FYP and the 11th FYP
(Ohara et al. 2007; Kurokawa et al. 2013, EDGAR v4.2, MEIC v1.2). The rate of
growth in NO x emissions was 10.3% from 2000 to 2005 and 5.7% from 2005 to
2010 (MEIC v1.2). The rapid increases in NO x over China during this period are
confirmed by satellite-based observations (Richter et al. 2005; Berezin et al. 2013;
Gu et al. 2013; Mijling et al. 2013; Itahashi et al. 2014; Krotkov et al. 2016;
Miyazaki et al. 2017). During the 12th FYP, the government of China set a target
of reducing NO x emissions in 2015 by 10% compared to 2010. To achieve this goal,
end-of-pipe pollutant abatement strategies were carried out nationwide for the
power, industry, and transportation sectors, and these strategies tended to be effective in controlling NO x emissions (Zhao et al. 2014, 2013a, b). During 2010–2017,
with upgraded emission standards and the spread of the “ultralow emission” technique, the new emission limit values have further driven down power plant emissions, which is the dominant driving force of the decrease in NO x emissions, while
industrial combustion sources lack an effective control on NO x (Zheng et al. 2018).
The release of emission standards for vehicles also had a significant effect in terms of
limiting emissions, especially in the urbanized regions, such as Beijing and Shanghai
(Liu et al. 2016). As shown in Fig. 2.3, the contribution of off-road transport to NO x
emissions is estimated to have increased from 8% to 12% during 2010–2017 and
thus ranked as the fourth largest single sector in 2017.
It is predicted that dramatic reductions in emissions of NO x can be achieved if
end-of-pipe facilities are installed and stringent vehicle standards are applied in
2030. Zhao et al. (2014) predict that the NO x emissions will decrease by 20%
from 2010 to 2030 in a best-guess scenario, and they will be further reduced 24%
if the issued and proposed emission standards are fully achieved. As predicted by
Zhao B et al. (2013a), by 2030, NO x emissions are projected to increase by 36% in
the baseline case. In the most stringent control scenario, in which SCR (selective
catalytic reduction)/SNCR (selective non-catalytic reduction) systems are installed
and stringent vehicle standards are applied, emissions would decrease by 61%
compared to the 2010 level. This reduction was updated by Wang et al. (2014) to
72% using the same prediction framework.
22
Q. Zhang et al.