335
...higher average temperatures of 1–3 °C by 2050, increase in the number of days and nights
considered “hot” by 2060, overall increases or decreases in rainfall difficult to project, later
onset/earlier cessation of rainy season, increase in average monthly rainfall from Dec– Jan
and a decrease from Feb–April, increases in the proportion of rainfall during extreme events
of up to 19% annually by 2090.
Climate change will most likely result in reduced crop yields followed by hunger
unless effective measures are put in place (Arndt et al. 2014).
The second category of drivers includes innovation, technology and infrastructure. Infrastructure such as the provision of roads is still a challenge in many places
in the country and a constraint for the efficient marketing of crops and delivery of
inputs. Small-scale farming is, to a large degree, traditional although input subsidies
have helped in making chemical fertilizer and improved seed more accessible for
farmers receiving input coupons (Pauw et al. 2014; Haug and Wold 2017). One
important way of adapting to climate change is through switching to crop varieties
that are able to cope with climate-related stress. Both public extension systems and
actors such as international NGOs promote climate-smart agriculture measures
such as mulching, water harvesting and the use of basins, organic material and
manure (Kamangira et al. 2016). According to Kakota et al. (2017), extension officers lack knowledge and skills regarding the dissemination of climate-smart agriculture practices. Technological efforts have focused on productivity gains and
climate adaptation. Value addition in the food value chain has received less attention. Input subsidy programs have consumed a large proportion of public spending
to agriculture and have played a social security role in the country (Dorward and
Chirwa 2014). There are different views on how successful the subsidized input
programs have been in relation to agricultural development and food security. In the
10-year period 2005/2006 to 2014/2015, the country was self-sufficient in maize,
even producing enough to export it to neighbouring countries (Arndt et al. 2014b;
Pauw et al. 2014; GoM 2016). However, fertilizer subsidies are contested in relation
to market distortion, climate adaptation, resilience building and long-term sustainability (Chinsinga and Chasukwa 2016; Haug and Wold 2017). The input subsidies
contributed to productivity gains and kept hunger at bay for a large proportion of
Malawian smallholders, before the country was hit by serious flooding in 2015 and
drought in 2016. In recent years, input subsidies have become out of reach for many
small-scale farmers as the proportion of voucher receivers sharply declined from
60% in 2010/2011 to 36% in 2016/2017 (NSO 2017).
The third category of drivers are political and economic drivers, including leadership, globalization and trade, conflict and humanitarian crises and food prices and
volatility. Globalization and trade are important for Malawi both in relation to high
economic dependency on tobacco export and regarding the influx of low-cost consumer goods that outcompete national industrial efforts (Collier and Dercon 2009).
The World Bank (2018) describes Malawi as a country with weak governance, poor
institutions, limited ability to implement policy and a high level of dependency on
international aid. The agro-food sector is heavily dependent upon support from
actors outside the country and is vulnerable to donor fatigue and a lack of trust in
the government from the donors (Kamangira et al. 2016). Corruption scandals such
Policy and Action for Food and Climate Uncertainties in Malawi
...higher average temperatures of 1–3 °C by 2050, increase in the number of days and nights
considered “hot” by 2060, overall increases or decreases in rainfall difficult to project, later
onset/earlier cessation of rainy season, increase in average monthly rainfall from Dec– Jan
and a decrease from Feb–April, increases in the proportion of rainfall during extreme events
of up to 19% annually by 2090.
Climate change will most likely result in reduced crop yields followed by hunger
unless effective measures are put in place (Arndt et al. 2014).
The second category of drivers includes innovation, technology and infrastructure. Infrastructure such as the provision of roads is still a challenge in many places
in the country and a constraint for the efficient marketing of crops and delivery of
inputs. Small-scale farming is, to a large degree, traditional although input subsidies
have helped in making chemical fertilizer and improved seed more accessible for
farmers receiving input coupons (Pauw et al. 2014; Haug and Wold 2017). One
important way of adapting to climate change is through switching to crop varieties
that are able to cope with climate-related stress. Both public extension systems and
actors such as international NGOs promote climate-smart agriculture measures
such as mulching, water harvesting and the use of basins, organic material and
manure (Kamangira et al. 2016). According to Kakota et al. (2017), extension officers lack knowledge and skills regarding the dissemination of climate-smart agriculture practices. Technological efforts have focused on productivity gains and
climate adaptation. Value addition in the food value chain has received less attention. Input subsidy programs have consumed a large proportion of public spending
to agriculture and have played a social security role in the country (Dorward and
Chirwa 2014). There are different views on how successful the subsidized input
programs have been in relation to agricultural development and food security. In the
10-year period 2005/2006 to 2014/2015, the country was self-sufficient in maize,
even producing enough to export it to neighbouring countries (Arndt et al. 2014b;
Pauw et al. 2014; GoM 2016). However, fertilizer subsidies are contested in relation
to market distortion, climate adaptation, resilience building and long-term sustainability (Chinsinga and Chasukwa 2016; Haug and Wold 2017). The input subsidies
contributed to productivity gains and kept hunger at bay for a large proportion of
Malawian smallholders, before the country was hit by serious flooding in 2015 and
drought in 2016. In recent years, input subsidies have become out of reach for many
small-scale farmers as the proportion of voucher receivers sharply declined from
60% in 2010/2011 to 36% in 2016/2017 (NSO 2017).
The third category of drivers are political and economic drivers, including leadership, globalization and trade, conflict and humanitarian crises and food prices and
volatility. Globalization and trade are important for Malawi both in relation to high
economic dependency on tobacco export and regarding the influx of low-cost consumer goods that outcompete national industrial efforts (Collier and Dercon 2009).
The World Bank (2018) describes Malawi as a country with weak governance, poor
institutions, limited ability to implement policy and a high level of dependency on
international aid. The agro-food sector is heavily dependent upon support from
actors outside the country and is vulnerable to donor fatigue and a lack of trust in
the government from the donors (Kamangira et al. 2016). Corruption scandals such
Policy and Action for Food and Climate Uncertainties in Malawi