405
15.2.1 Food-Centric Approaches to FEW System Modeling
Food production models, particularly in the agricultural sector (crop models), have
been the subject of extensive research, development, and applications worldwide. In
addition to this, because of the connections between climate and agricultural systems, there is also a variety of agricultural models that have been linked or coupled
to climate models. A few representative food-centric models are described here,
highlighting their applications to FEW systems nexus issues.
DSSAT and GOSSYM are two of the most widely used dynamic crop growth
models for corn, soy, wheat, cotton, and other major crops, and their formulation,
development, and application have been well.
Both models simulate water, carbon, and nitrogen processes in plant root zones.
They predict crop growth (with detailed plant chemistry, morphogenesis, and phenology) and soil responses to environmental stresses, primarily from heat, water,
carbon, and nutrients.
Both models enable parallel computing and have been coupled with a regional
Climate-Weather Research and Forecasting (CWRF) models, and tested for
credibly simulating cotton and corn yields over the Cotton and Corn Belts in the
USA. CWRF is the climate extension of the Weather Research and Forecasting
(WRF) model. CWRF simulates surface radiation and terrestrial hydrology and has
significantly improved regional precipitation skill over NOAA seasonal forecasts
and over NCAR and another GCMs’ climate simulations. CWRF resolves the synoptic and meso-scale processes governing regional climate anomalies and changes
essential to crop production.
FASOMGHG (Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization ModelGreenHouse Gases version) simulates the allocation of land over time to competing crops (food, feed, fuel, fiber), livestock, forestry, and urban activities plus the
impacts of changing land allocation and production practices.
FASOMGHG outputs the effects on commodity markets and the environment, as
well as the welfare and market impacts of policies that influence land allocation and
alter production activities within these sectors.
FASOMGHG covers the major agricultural activities across the continental USA
and represents agricultural production, processing and markets, aquifer water withdrawal, renewable fuels production, and land use. It captures biophysical and economic processes determining the technical, economic, and environmental
implications of bioenergy production, climate change, and policy intervention.
FASOMGHG has been used to address a wide variety of scenarios relevant to
FEW systems nexus issues. These include how climate change and bioenergy
expansion influence land use, crop mix, input usage, land values, livestock and commodity production/prices, energy and fertilizer use, exports, greenhouse gas fluxes,
and environmental emissions. It has also been used to evaluate responses to carbon
programs, adaptation strategies to climate change, land use erosion related rules,
population growth, and food demand, farm program provisions, and export promotions plus many other analyses at regional and national levels.
15 Modeling
15.2.1 Food-Centric Approaches to FEW System Modeling
Food production models, particularly in the agricultural sector (crop models), have
been the subject of extensive research, development, and applications worldwide. In
addition to this, because of the connections between climate and agricultural systems, there is also a variety of agricultural models that have been linked or coupled
to climate models. A few representative food-centric models are described here,
highlighting their applications to FEW systems nexus issues.
DSSAT and GOSSYM are two of the most widely used dynamic crop growth
models for corn, soy, wheat, cotton, and other major crops, and their formulation,
development, and application have been well.
Both models simulate water, carbon, and nitrogen processes in plant root zones.
They predict crop growth (with detailed plant chemistry, morphogenesis, and phenology) and soil responses to environmental stresses, primarily from heat, water,
carbon, and nutrients.
Both models enable parallel computing and have been coupled with a regional
Climate-Weather Research and Forecasting (CWRF) models, and tested for
credibly simulating cotton and corn yields over the Cotton and Corn Belts in the
USA. CWRF is the climate extension of the Weather Research and Forecasting
(WRF) model. CWRF simulates surface radiation and terrestrial hydrology and has
significantly improved regional precipitation skill over NOAA seasonal forecasts
and over NCAR and another GCMs’ climate simulations. CWRF resolves the synoptic and meso-scale processes governing regional climate anomalies and changes
essential to crop production.
FASOMGHG (Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization ModelGreenHouse Gases version) simulates the allocation of land over time to competing crops (food, feed, fuel, fiber), livestock, forestry, and urban activities plus the
impacts of changing land allocation and production practices.
FASOMGHG outputs the effects on commodity markets and the environment, as
well as the welfare and market impacts of policies that influence land allocation and
alter production activities within these sectors.
FASOMGHG covers the major agricultural activities across the continental USA
and represents agricultural production, processing and markets, aquifer water withdrawal, renewable fuels production, and land use. It captures biophysical and economic processes determining the technical, economic, and environmental
implications of bioenergy production, climate change, and policy intervention.
FASOMGHG has been used to address a wide variety of scenarios relevant to
FEW systems nexus issues. These include how climate change and bioenergy
expansion influence land use, crop mix, input usage, land values, livestock and commodity production/prices, energy and fertilizer use, exports, greenhouse gas fluxes,
and environmental emissions. It has also been used to evaluate responses to carbon
programs, adaptation strategies to climate change, land use erosion related rules,
population growth, and food demand, farm program provisions, and export promotions plus many other analyses at regional and national levels.
15 Modeling