300
Communicating scientific confidence in a manner accessible to a lay audience is
possible for some issues. For example, a non-scientist can understand the ability to
have high confidence in a long-term (decadal) climate projections while having very
low confidence in relatively near-term (weeks) weather forecasts by recognizing the
common experience of differences between average conditions in winter and summer. However, communicating about more nuanced scientific issues.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has developed a useful and
more systematic approach to address these two communication challenges, which
has broad applicability and utility is communicating scientific confidence and risk
to non-scientific audiences. In the word of the IPCC, “[c]onfidence increases
towards the top-right corner as suggested by the increasing strength of shading.
Generally, the evidence is most robust when there are multiple, consistent independent lines of high-quality evidence.”
Table 11.1 shows the IPCC’s depiction of statements about scientific evidence
and agreement and how they are related to confidence in the scientific community.
Thus, high scientific confidence is a result of robust evidence and high agreement
between sources. Conversely, where there is limited evidence and low agreement,
there is low scientific confidence. These phrases appear frequently below.
High Agreement
Limited Evidence
High Agreement
Medium Evidence
High Agreement
Robust Evidence
Medium Agreement
Limited Evidence
Medium Agreement
Medium Evidence
Medium Agreement
Robust Evidence
Low Agreement
Limited Evidence
Low Agreement
Medium Evidence
Low Agreement
Robust Evidence
Evidence (type, amount, quality, consistency)
High Confidence
Medium Confidence
Low Confidence
Confidence
Agreement
Table 11.1 A depiction of evidence and agreement statements and their relationship to confidence
developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
“Confidence increases towards the top-right corner as suggested by the increasing strength of
shading. Generally, the evidence is most robust when there are multiple, consistent independent
lines of high-quality evidence.” (Source IPCC 2013)
P. Saundry
Communicating scientific confidence in a manner accessible to a lay audience is
possible for some issues. For example, a non-scientist can understand the ability to
have high confidence in a long-term (decadal) climate projections while having very
low confidence in relatively near-term (weeks) weather forecasts by recognizing the
common experience of differences between average conditions in winter and summer. However, communicating about more nuanced scientific issues.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has developed a useful and
more systematic approach to address these two communication challenges, which
has broad applicability and utility is communicating scientific confidence and risk
to non-scientific audiences. In the word of the IPCC, “[c]onfidence increases
towards the top-right corner as suggested by the increasing strength of shading.
Generally, the evidence is most robust when there are multiple, consistent independent lines of high-quality evidence.”
Table 11.1 shows the IPCC’s depiction of statements about scientific evidence
and agreement and how they are related to confidence in the scientific community.
Thus, high scientific confidence is a result of robust evidence and high agreement
between sources. Conversely, where there is limited evidence and low agreement,
there is low scientific confidence. These phrases appear frequently below.
High Agreement
Limited Evidence
High Agreement
Medium Evidence
High Agreement
Robust Evidence
Medium Agreement
Limited Evidence
Medium Agreement
Medium Evidence
Medium Agreement
Robust Evidence
Low Agreement
Limited Evidence
Low Agreement
Medium Evidence
Low Agreement
Robust Evidence
Evidence (type, amount, quality, consistency)
High Confidence
Medium Confidence
Low Confidence
Confidence
Agreement
Table 11.1 A depiction of evidence and agreement statements and their relationship to confidence
developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
“Confidence increases towards the top-right corner as suggested by the increasing strength of
shading. Generally, the evidence is most robust when there are multiple, consistent independent
lines of high-quality evidence.” (Source IPCC 2013)
P. Saundry