195
is now a system of linked models around a core multimarket economic model of
global production, trade, demand, and prices for agricultural commodities.”
(Robinson et al. 2015)
IMPACT (Fig. 7.3) is a set of mathematical relations between different parts of a
food system connecting inputs (e.g., population, diet, production, prices, etc.) to
outputs (e.g., demand, exports, imports, etc.) (Robinson et al. 2015).
IMPACT is a macro-scale model (see Sect. 12.3) that covers 159 countries, 154
water basins, and 320 food production units based on 62 agricultural commodities.
The agricultural commodities are staple crops (e.g., wheat, corn, rice, barley, maize,
sugar, fruits, and vegetables) and animal products (e.g., fish, meat, and dairy
products).
When considering IMPACT, it is important to remember the difference between
projections and predictions (see Sect. 1.5.3). Models provide projections (or estimates) or what will happen under specified scenarios, defined by a set of assumptions about a system such as its key inputs, conditions, and functioning.
Fig. 7.3 The international model for policy analysis of agricultural commodities and trade
(IMPACT). (Source: Rosegrant et al. 2012)
7 Trade
Précédent

- 207/686

Suivant