50
energy, to raise ethics to a new level, to make
greater creativity more general and to establish
higher level organisations that could become institutional. As a result, transformation towards stage
4 (Fig. 2.23: breakthrough) brings a new, more
stable society of higher order. According to Ervin
László two out of the four stages has been passed
already by our society and we live currently
(2008) the third stage of bifurcation full of crises.
The primary fault of this world model is the
inclusion of several subjective elements. Despite
this, the bifurcation hypothesis gives food for
thought regarding the future of humanity.
2.6.4.1 Some Lessons of the Collapse
of Former Societies
Since the collapse of the society could be the
result of several of the above scenarios let’s see
briefly the lessons of some collapses in history.
The global social system is composed of more
than 200 separate societies. Numerous societies
existed in history, some prospered for a long time
and then collapsed either shortly or over long
suffering.
The work of Tainter (1988) fundamentally
questioned that a well-organized group of people
would exhaust its environmental resources so that
it perishes finally. According to him, a complex
society uses resources effectively and the undulations and shortages of production are balanced.
As soon as the decision makers in the complex
society note that the resources are running low
they would take measures immediately to solve
the issues. It is hard to believe that they would
wait for collapse without action. Despite this logical argument, it is a fact in history that many
societies (Easter Islands, Minoan civilisation,
Maya civilisation, Vikings, Anasazi culture,
Pitcairn Islands) perished even though some of
them were in permanent prosperity. Events must
have happened or decisions were taken that
ruined the given human society.
Diamond (2005) analysed the reasons behind the
collapse of several perished societies in an extensive
work and made several general conclusions the
most important of which are summaries in the followings as a lesson for societies of the present.
First of all, wrong decisions made collectively
trigger the process of collapse. Most frequently
the group of people does not foresee the approaching serious problem. Maybe they can see the
problem but do not take it seriously and do not
deal with possible solutions. It is also frequent
that people recognise the problem too late and
there is no time to develop the way of solving the
problem. Consequently, a very important element
in the road leading to collapse is the lack of foresight. An example frequently cited is the settlement of Vikings in Iceland where they cut the
trees but then were unable even to graze their animals because erosion removed the loose soil
unprotected without the trees.
It is also possible that the problem is literally
imperceptible therefore consequences cannot be
foreseen either. The threat of secondary salinification (salts present in deeper layers of soils) was
not possible to recognise either in Mesopotamia
or in certain areas of Australia. The fact that the
upper layers of the soil become saline was indicated late only by a permanent decrease of crop.
(It is worth noting, however, that today modern
soil analyses can alert this danger.)
A problem remains unnoticed—even at global
level—when approaching as a slow tendency
hidden by strong random undulations. A typical
example of this is climate change that can be
traced clearly by analysing statistically a series of
century long data. Such slow trends are referred
to as “creeping normality” in politics that succeed over huge anomalies thus large annual
changes
cover
up
long-term
trends.
(Unfortunately, some politicians lack foresight
even today when the warming of the climate is
proved scientifically, see Sect. 4.5).
Another station on the road towards collapse
is when the recognised problem is not faced in
time only when it is too late. One human or even
a smaller group of people makes decisions rational from its own point of view but those may
cause damage to others (or even the entire society). An example of this could be the “tragedy of
public grazing lands”. There is a grazing land of
a certain size in public ownership just outside a
village. If anyone in the village has the right to
graze cows of any number the grass will shortly
disappear. It is a public interest therefore that
owners graze their cows moderately. Until the
village community does not regulate that who
2 Structure and Operation of Systems, Models of the Global Earth System
energy, to raise ethics to a new level, to make
greater creativity more general and to establish
higher level organisations that could become institutional. As a result, transformation towards stage
4 (Fig. 2.23: breakthrough) brings a new, more
stable society of higher order. According to Ervin
László two out of the four stages has been passed
already by our society and we live currently
(2008) the third stage of bifurcation full of crises.
The primary fault of this world model is the
inclusion of several subjective elements. Despite
this, the bifurcation hypothesis gives food for
thought regarding the future of humanity.
2.6.4.1 Some Lessons of the Collapse
of Former Societies
Since the collapse of the society could be the
result of several of the above scenarios let’s see
briefly the lessons of some collapses in history.
The global social system is composed of more
than 200 separate societies. Numerous societies
existed in history, some prospered for a long time
and then collapsed either shortly or over long
suffering.
The work of Tainter (1988) fundamentally
questioned that a well-organized group of people
would exhaust its environmental resources so that
it perishes finally. According to him, a complex
society uses resources effectively and the undulations and shortages of production are balanced.
As soon as the decision makers in the complex
society note that the resources are running low
they would take measures immediately to solve
the issues. It is hard to believe that they would
wait for collapse without action. Despite this logical argument, it is a fact in history that many
societies (Easter Islands, Minoan civilisation,
Maya civilisation, Vikings, Anasazi culture,
Pitcairn Islands) perished even though some of
them were in permanent prosperity. Events must
have happened or decisions were taken that
ruined the given human society.
Diamond (2005) analysed the reasons behind the
collapse of several perished societies in an extensive
work and made several general conclusions the
most important of which are summaries in the followings as a lesson for societies of the present.
First of all, wrong decisions made collectively
trigger the process of collapse. Most frequently
the group of people does not foresee the approaching serious problem. Maybe they can see the
problem but do not take it seriously and do not
deal with possible solutions. It is also frequent
that people recognise the problem too late and
there is no time to develop the way of solving the
problem. Consequently, a very important element
in the road leading to collapse is the lack of foresight. An example frequently cited is the settlement of Vikings in Iceland where they cut the
trees but then were unable even to graze their animals because erosion removed the loose soil
unprotected without the trees.
It is also possible that the problem is literally
imperceptible therefore consequences cannot be
foreseen either. The threat of secondary salinification (salts present in deeper layers of soils) was
not possible to recognise either in Mesopotamia
or in certain areas of Australia. The fact that the
upper layers of the soil become saline was indicated late only by a permanent decrease of crop.
(It is worth noting, however, that today modern
soil analyses can alert this danger.)
A problem remains unnoticed—even at global
level—when approaching as a slow tendency
hidden by strong random undulations. A typical
example of this is climate change that can be
traced clearly by analysing statistically a series of
century long data. Such slow trends are referred
to as “creeping normality” in politics that succeed over huge anomalies thus large annual
changes
cover
up
long-term
trends.
(Unfortunately, some politicians lack foresight
even today when the warming of the climate is
proved scientifically, see Sect. 4.5).
Another station on the road towards collapse
is when the recognised problem is not faced in
time only when it is too late. One human or even
a smaller group of people makes decisions rational from its own point of view but those may
cause damage to others (or even the entire society). An example of this could be the “tragedy of
public grazing lands”. There is a grazing land of
a certain size in public ownership just outside a
village. If anyone in the village has the right to
graze cows of any number the grass will shortly
disappear. It is a public interest therefore that
owners graze their cows moderately. Until the
village community does not regulate that who
2 Structure and Operation of Systems, Models of the Global Earth System