44
composing version 10 the authors presumed—
among others—that population growth stops in
1975 (this was regarded nonsense even then),
capital and industrial production stabilizes by
1990, environmental pollution is controlled and
material are recycled. This version showed a
steady state until 2100 (Fig. 2.20).
Version 11 is similar to version 10 in its principles, however, the date of limiting growth was
not set so rigidly, it was integrated into the model
with delays. The result of version 11 was similar
to the previous version but population stabilized
at a higher while industrial production at a lower
level thus life standard was lower in version 11.
Due to the above critics of the model called the
theory of Meadows the theory of zero growth.
Final conclusions of the report of Meadows’
in 1972 were the following: crisis can be only
avoided if the human population and its production and consumption are limited as soon as possible. The models triggered intense debates
among scientists. Even the model creators themselves agreed in that they could not consider a
number of important factors (partly because it
was not possible to express them in numbers) like
regional differences of accommodation, social
differences, factors of religion, etc. Some scientists criticised that the models do not consider
adequately the possibilities hidden in scientific
and technical development. Some geologists
strongly debated data regarding raw material
reserves—although the authors of the models
stated that problems would not be solved, only
delayed somewhat by exploring new resources.
Authors of the models were also aware of that the
global population cannot be stabilized within
Fig. 2.19 Model version 7 of Meadows’ world models: (Meadows et al. 1972): with unlimited raw material resources,
pollution control and global birth control
2 Structure and Operation of Systems, Models of the Global Earth System
composing version 10 the authors presumed—
among others—that population growth stops in
1975 (this was regarded nonsense even then),
capital and industrial production stabilizes by
1990, environmental pollution is controlled and
material are recycled. This version showed a
steady state until 2100 (Fig. 2.20).
Version 11 is similar to version 10 in its principles, however, the date of limiting growth was
not set so rigidly, it was integrated into the model
with delays. The result of version 11 was similar
to the previous version but population stabilized
at a higher while industrial production at a lower
level thus life standard was lower in version 11.
Due to the above critics of the model called the
theory of Meadows the theory of zero growth.
Final conclusions of the report of Meadows’
in 1972 were the following: crisis can be only
avoided if the human population and its production and consumption are limited as soon as possible. The models triggered intense debates
among scientists. Even the model creators themselves agreed in that they could not consider a
number of important factors (partly because it
was not possible to express them in numbers) like
regional differences of accommodation, social
differences, factors of religion, etc. Some scientists criticised that the models do not consider
adequately the possibilities hidden in scientific
and technical development. Some geologists
strongly debated data regarding raw material
reserves—although the authors of the models
stated that problems would not be solved, only
delayed somewhat by exploring new resources.
Authors of the models were also aware of that the
global population cannot be stabilized within
Fig. 2.19 Model version 7 of Meadows’ world models: (Meadows et al. 1972): with unlimited raw material resources,
pollution control and global birth control
2 Structure and Operation of Systems, Models of the Global Earth System