42
We consider a result of the hypothesis that
sensitivity areas were assigned on Earth since
these give a basis for people to plan environmental disturbances in order to prevent greater
damage.
Lovelock made some mistakes in developing
and publishing the hypothesis. The term Gaia
wakes mystic, mythological thoughts in readers
and drew their attention from exact science.
The idea that Gaia is a single living being and
certain organs of this being are paralleled with
human organs (e.g. brown algae in the ocean perform similar tasks at planetary level as thyroid) is
not regarded lucky.
Most debated is the assumption that the extent
of the atmospheric inequality suggests that the
atmosphere is not only the result of the activity of
the biosphere but—more likely—its deliberate
creation. This statement (purposeful creation)
hints that Gaia is an intelligent being (such reference can be found elsewhere as well) that is in
relation to the entire biosphere is a brave statement. Several smaller inaccuracies can be found
in the publications provided further fields for
attack.
All the above do not lessen its fundamental
achievement that essential processes in the operation of the biosphere were exposed like selfcontrol ability and the ability to transform the
environment that were not considered enough
before the works of Lovelock.
2.6.4 “World Models”: Models
of the Global Human Society
As mentioned in the introduction of Sect. 2.6 the
models on the human society are traditionally
called world models. Naturally these models also
consider the relationship of the society as a global
system with the natural environment since it provides the conditions of the operation of the society. Material (industrial raw material, water,
food) and energy (coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear
energy and renewable energy sources) required
by the society are obtained from the natural
environment.
The first scientific world models were created
on behalf of the Club of Rome. Meadows and
colleagues prepared the first dynamic quantitative world model (global social model) with the
help of which a number of significant results
were obtained regarding the sustainable operation of the society (Meadows et al. 1972). The
world model was established on the basis of five
studied parameters within which 99 variables
were considered in total. The five parameters are
the following:
1. Population of the World.
2. Raw material resources.
3. Food reserves per capita.
4. Industrial production per capita.
5. Degree of contamination of the environment.
For example, the following variables are included
within these: number of potential jobs in industry, number of jobs per capital unit in industry,
total number of jobs, number of labour force,
ratio of unemployed, number of jobs in agriculture per hectare, number of possible jobs in
agriculture.
Regarding raw materials the following variables—among others—were considered: nonrenewable raw materials, raw material utilisation
rate, ratio of available raw materials, originally
present raw material reserves, raw material utilisation factor, share of capital for raw material
exploitation, etc.
Systemized data were analysed as extensively
as possible: interrelationship of quantities mutually affecting each other were widely considered.
The systematics and mathematics bases of the
world model of Meadows were established by
Forrester (1968, 1971). After the computerized
(quantified) version of the world model was created its reliability was controlled. This was
achieved so that the data of an earlier time period
(early twentieth century) were entered into the
computer and prognosis was given to the present
at that time (1970). In this way it could be tested
that what are the errors of the prognosis. This test
made the improvement and modification of the
computer programme necessary.
2 Structure and Operation of Systems, Models of the Global Earth System
We consider a result of the hypothesis that
sensitivity areas were assigned on Earth since
these give a basis for people to plan environmental disturbances in order to prevent greater
damage.
Lovelock made some mistakes in developing
and publishing the hypothesis. The term Gaia
wakes mystic, mythological thoughts in readers
and drew their attention from exact science.
The idea that Gaia is a single living being and
certain organs of this being are paralleled with
human organs (e.g. brown algae in the ocean perform similar tasks at planetary level as thyroid) is
not regarded lucky.
Most debated is the assumption that the extent
of the atmospheric inequality suggests that the
atmosphere is not only the result of the activity of
the biosphere but—more likely—its deliberate
creation. This statement (purposeful creation)
hints that Gaia is an intelligent being (such reference can be found elsewhere as well) that is in
relation to the entire biosphere is a brave statement. Several smaller inaccuracies can be found
in the publications provided further fields for
attack.
All the above do not lessen its fundamental
achievement that essential processes in the operation of the biosphere were exposed like selfcontrol ability and the ability to transform the
environment that were not considered enough
before the works of Lovelock.
2.6.4 “World Models”: Models
of the Global Human Society
As mentioned in the introduction of Sect. 2.6 the
models on the human society are traditionally
called world models. Naturally these models also
consider the relationship of the society as a global
system with the natural environment since it provides the conditions of the operation of the society. Material (industrial raw material, water,
food) and energy (coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear
energy and renewable energy sources) required
by the society are obtained from the natural
environment.
The first scientific world models were created
on behalf of the Club of Rome. Meadows and
colleagues prepared the first dynamic quantitative world model (global social model) with the
help of which a number of significant results
were obtained regarding the sustainable operation of the society (Meadows et al. 1972). The
world model was established on the basis of five
studied parameters within which 99 variables
were considered in total. The five parameters are
the following:
1. Population of the World.
2. Raw material resources.
3. Food reserves per capita.
4. Industrial production per capita.
5. Degree of contamination of the environment.
For example, the following variables are included
within these: number of potential jobs in industry, number of jobs per capital unit in industry,
total number of jobs, number of labour force,
ratio of unemployed, number of jobs in agriculture per hectare, number of possible jobs in
agriculture.
Regarding raw materials the following variables—among others—were considered: nonrenewable raw materials, raw material utilisation
rate, ratio of available raw materials, originally
present raw material reserves, raw material utilisation factor, share of capital for raw material
exploitation, etc.
Systemized data were analysed as extensively
as possible: interrelationship of quantities mutually affecting each other were widely considered.
The systematics and mathematics bases of the
world model of Meadows were established by
Forrester (1968, 1971). After the computerized
(quantified) version of the world model was created its reliability was controlled. This was
achieved so that the data of an earlier time period
(early twentieth century) were entered into the
computer and prognosis was given to the present
at that time (1970). In this way it could be tested
that what are the errors of the prognosis. This test
made the improvement and modification of the
computer programme necessary.
2 Structure and Operation of Systems, Models of the Global Earth System