36
be ignored with special regard to greenhouse
gases and also to opposite acting aerosols.
The climate system itself can also be regarded
as the complex system of the external spheres the
major elements of which include the atmosphere,
hydrosphere, cryosphere (the sphere of water in
the form of ice), the surface of Earth (soils, surface rocks), biosphere and anthroposphere. The
operation of the climate system is characterised
by the interaction of the above spheres resulting
in a specific internal dynamics that can be significantly influenced by external constraints (external effects) like, for example, volcanism or solar
radiation. (It is worth noting that in the reports of
the IPCC = Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change anthropogenic effects are also interpreted
as external constraints and primarily human
impacts on the composition of the atmosphere
and land use changes are included.)
The development of climate simulation models advances towards four-dimensional quantitative models. Scientific research focuses on those
out of all global Earth system models: several
hundred scientists of several institutes worldwide
dealt and deal with modelling global Earth climate models using an enormous technical arsenal. At least 20 climate models were created that
are regarded suitable for characterising the operation of the current climate. (The report of IPCC
cited 23 models in 2008.)
Between 1961 and 1990 the so-called CMIP5
(Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate Model
Intercomparison Project) models were developed. These models underestimated the real
changes of the climate and did not consider the
heat storing and transporting capacity of oceans
properly.
Global climate models were gradually
improved from the 1990s taking increasingly into
account oceanic and terrestrial processes as well.
Today the creation and development of AOGCM
(Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model)
models gained momentum. In these models
hydrosphere receives an important role in forming the climate including the horizontal and vertical flow of salt water, the movement of sea ice
and the mixture of fresh water flowing into the
ocean from dry lands. Other important elements
of the system models include snow surfaces and
their dynamics and the movements and changes
of glaciers. Although some models take the role
of clouds above oceans in influencing the surface
temperature of the ocean into account, the simulation of the role of tropical precipitation and
clouds is still incomplete. Considering the grade
of cryosphere feedbacks, AOGCM models are
still uncertain.
The report of IPCC in 2008 grouped model
developments into three classes. One development direction was the improvement of the
dynamic bases and the increase of horizontal and
vertical resolution. In the second development
field more climatic processes were intended to be
included in model creation. According to the
third development aspect, the parametrization of
physical processes was planned to be improved.
All of these require greater computer apparatus
and more money. As a result, EMIC (Earth
System Models of Intermediate Complexity)
models were prepared for studying the past and
future changes of climate. These models, however, represent physical properties in very simplified form therefore yielded results can be used
only on “very large scales”. In recent years, however, these models were also made more
accurate.
In the fifth report of IPCC (2015) the authors
summarized the basic features of the development of coupled climate models. Table 2.1 traces
this development. Each of the major factors in the
first column includes several processes, i.e. the
models contain their multiples. Clearly the major
factors considered from the beginning (atmosphere, Earth’s surface, ocean and sea ice) were
taken into account increasingly versatile and the
processes within the factors were integrated into
the system models in increasing detail and on
deeper scientific basis. (More + signs indicate
this.) In the meantime, vertical and horizontal
resolution also increased. Vertical resolution, for
example, increased from level 9 to level 95 while
horizontal resolution increased from 500 km to
100 km.
It is worth noting that aerosols were mentioned first in the 1996 report. These as factors of
climate were not integrated into the models at the
2 Structure and Operation of Systems, Models of the Global Earth System
be ignored with special regard to greenhouse
gases and also to opposite acting aerosols.
The climate system itself can also be regarded
as the complex system of the external spheres the
major elements of which include the atmosphere,
hydrosphere, cryosphere (the sphere of water in
the form of ice), the surface of Earth (soils, surface rocks), biosphere and anthroposphere. The
operation of the climate system is characterised
by the interaction of the above spheres resulting
in a specific internal dynamics that can be significantly influenced by external constraints (external effects) like, for example, volcanism or solar
radiation. (It is worth noting that in the reports of
the IPCC = Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change anthropogenic effects are also interpreted
as external constraints and primarily human
impacts on the composition of the atmosphere
and land use changes are included.)
The development of climate simulation models advances towards four-dimensional quantitative models. Scientific research focuses on those
out of all global Earth system models: several
hundred scientists of several institutes worldwide
dealt and deal with modelling global Earth climate models using an enormous technical arsenal. At least 20 climate models were created that
are regarded suitable for characterising the operation of the current climate. (The report of IPCC
cited 23 models in 2008.)
Between 1961 and 1990 the so-called CMIP5
(Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate Model
Intercomparison Project) models were developed. These models underestimated the real
changes of the climate and did not consider the
heat storing and transporting capacity of oceans
properly.
Global climate models were gradually
improved from the 1990s taking increasingly into
account oceanic and terrestrial processes as well.
Today the creation and development of AOGCM
(Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model)
models gained momentum. In these models
hydrosphere receives an important role in forming the climate including the horizontal and vertical flow of salt water, the movement of sea ice
and the mixture of fresh water flowing into the
ocean from dry lands. Other important elements
of the system models include snow surfaces and
their dynamics and the movements and changes
of glaciers. Although some models take the role
of clouds above oceans in influencing the surface
temperature of the ocean into account, the simulation of the role of tropical precipitation and
clouds is still incomplete. Considering the grade
of cryosphere feedbacks, AOGCM models are
still uncertain.
The report of IPCC in 2008 grouped model
developments into three classes. One development direction was the improvement of the
dynamic bases and the increase of horizontal and
vertical resolution. In the second development
field more climatic processes were intended to be
included in model creation. According to the
third development aspect, the parametrization of
physical processes was planned to be improved.
All of these require greater computer apparatus
and more money. As a result, EMIC (Earth
System Models of Intermediate Complexity)
models were prepared for studying the past and
future changes of climate. These models, however, represent physical properties in very simplified form therefore yielded results can be used
only on “very large scales”. In recent years, however, these models were also made more
accurate.
In the fifth report of IPCC (2015) the authors
summarized the basic features of the development of coupled climate models. Table 2.1 traces
this development. Each of the major factors in the
first column includes several processes, i.e. the
models contain their multiples. Clearly the major
factors considered from the beginning (atmosphere, Earth’s surface, ocean and sea ice) were
taken into account increasingly versatile and the
processes within the factors were integrated into
the system models in increasing detail and on
deeper scientific basis. (More + signs indicate
this.) In the meantime, vertical and horizontal
resolution also increased. Vertical resolution, for
example, increased from level 9 to level 95 while
horizontal resolution increased from 500 km to
100 km.
It is worth noting that aerosols were mentioned first in the 1996 report. These as factors of
climate were not integrated into the models at the
2 Structure and Operation of Systems, Models of the Global Earth System