194
however, who doubt this as in their opinion scientific and technical development and modern production methods becoming widely applied will
be able to challenge supply problems. As presented in Sect. 4.2, however, poor countries have
no available capital for making modern (generally expensive) methods widely used all over the
country and farm sizes are also too small for the
application of modern techniques. For successful
accommodation to the changing climatic conditions the operation of the entire global economic
system has to be changed (Chaps. 5 and 6).
Rising mean sea level is likely to bring even
more severe conditions for humanity. Although
the mean sea level rise even in the case of RCP
8.5 scenario seems not to be too significant
(0.8 m) the real threat is much greater than the
single data suggests. Moreover, even in the case
of the most advantageous scenario (RCP 2.6,
Fig. 4.85c) serious concerns will occur for
humanity. Currently around 750 million people
(10% of the global population) live in a coastal
belt lower than 10 m a.s.l. and a varying number
of them get into trouble occasionally even today.
The water mass of the sea is in a constant motion
due to phenomena from the periodically changing tide-and-ebb via incalculably occurring storm
tides till earthquake induced tsunamis. The shape
of coasts and the discharge of rivers flowing into
the sea greatly influence the height of floods
caused by them. Recently the storm tide brought
by Hurricane Katrina caused severe flooding in
New York. A mean sea level rise of 0.5 m could
raise the height of storm floods four to five times
depending on coast shape. In such a case in a
country like Bangladesh, for example, (the densest populated country in the world) around 40%
of the area of the country would be covered by
water and inhabitants of any other settlement in
flat seacoast would be under great threat. Along
the densely populated coast of the Nile delta
0.5 m of sea level rise would threaten the home of
3.8 million people and 1800 km
2
of productive
area (FitzGerald et al. 2008).
Rarely appear in the news but the rate of subsidence regarding the surface of coastal cities
could be several times that of mean sea level rise.
According to constant measurements Tokyo,
Osaka, Shanghai, Jakarta and Bangkok subsided
5, 3, 3, 4 and 2 m respectively (Nicholls 2015).
Since sea level rise would not stop at the end of
the century low lying coastal areas and even whole
island groups would become uninhabitable gradually. Main vulnerable coastal regions include
Caribbean, Africa, South and Southeast Asia,
Indonesia, while vulnerable island regions include
small islands in the Pacific Ocean and Indian
Ocean. Although rich countries would be able to
construct barriers like the Netherlands did establishing a barrier and lock network under the name
Delta Plan but this is not feasible worldwide.
Humanity has to face with dramatically
increasing numbers of ecological refugees in the
future for two reasons. On the one hand, massive
migration would develop from very hot areas
with extreme water scarcity to regions having
more favourable climate. On the other hand
migration could increase permanently from
threatened coastal areas to lands located higher
and more distant from the coast. The latter could
remain within country in the case of countries
with extensive areas (the USA, China) while in
other cases international migration will probably
intensify (Bangladesh, countries in Indochina,
coastal areas of Africa, island countries). The
extent of the above migration and its negative
economic consequences are very difficult to estimate (see Chap. 5).
Global warming of the climate and spatial differences in the process (including intensifying
extremities) will induce serious consequences
regarding natural wildlife as was presented in
Sect. 4.4. Tropical rainforests together with direct
anthropogenic burden (deforestation with fire) on
them will change in the direction of dryer climate
and savannahs will replace them as a result of
positive feedback.
Accelerated climate zone shifts could be beneficial for easily accommodating species because
rivalling (hardly accommodating) species could
perish. Retreating ice around the Arctic transforms the habitat of arctic life thus extinction of
certain species can be expected.
Retreating ice of the Arctic Sea, however,
could bring some advantages for the society.
The transport of massive goods from Western
Europe to the Far East could take place along
the Russian shores with 40% less distance than
4 Changes on Earth as a Result of Interaction Between the Society and Nature
however, who doubt this as in their opinion scientific and technical development and modern production methods becoming widely applied will
be able to challenge supply problems. As presented in Sect. 4.2, however, poor countries have
no available capital for making modern (generally expensive) methods widely used all over the
country and farm sizes are also too small for the
application of modern techniques. For successful
accommodation to the changing climatic conditions the operation of the entire global economic
system has to be changed (Chaps. 5 and 6).
Rising mean sea level is likely to bring even
more severe conditions for humanity. Although
the mean sea level rise even in the case of RCP
8.5 scenario seems not to be too significant
(0.8 m) the real threat is much greater than the
single data suggests. Moreover, even in the case
of the most advantageous scenario (RCP 2.6,
Fig. 4.85c) serious concerns will occur for
humanity. Currently around 750 million people
(10% of the global population) live in a coastal
belt lower than 10 m a.s.l. and a varying number
of them get into trouble occasionally even today.
The water mass of the sea is in a constant motion
due to phenomena from the periodically changing tide-and-ebb via incalculably occurring storm
tides till earthquake induced tsunamis. The shape
of coasts and the discharge of rivers flowing into
the sea greatly influence the height of floods
caused by them. Recently the storm tide brought
by Hurricane Katrina caused severe flooding in
New York. A mean sea level rise of 0.5 m could
raise the height of storm floods four to five times
depending on coast shape. In such a case in a
country like Bangladesh, for example, (the densest populated country in the world) around 40%
of the area of the country would be covered by
water and inhabitants of any other settlement in
flat seacoast would be under great threat. Along
the densely populated coast of the Nile delta
0.5 m of sea level rise would threaten the home of
3.8 million people and 1800 km
2
of productive
area (FitzGerald et al. 2008).
Rarely appear in the news but the rate of subsidence regarding the surface of coastal cities
could be several times that of mean sea level rise.
According to constant measurements Tokyo,
Osaka, Shanghai, Jakarta and Bangkok subsided
5, 3, 3, 4 and 2 m respectively (Nicholls 2015).
Since sea level rise would not stop at the end of
the century low lying coastal areas and even whole
island groups would become uninhabitable gradually. Main vulnerable coastal regions include
Caribbean, Africa, South and Southeast Asia,
Indonesia, while vulnerable island regions include
small islands in the Pacific Ocean and Indian
Ocean. Although rich countries would be able to
construct barriers like the Netherlands did establishing a barrier and lock network under the name
Delta Plan but this is not feasible worldwide.
Humanity has to face with dramatically
increasing numbers of ecological refugees in the
future for two reasons. On the one hand, massive
migration would develop from very hot areas
with extreme water scarcity to regions having
more favourable climate. On the other hand
migration could increase permanently from
threatened coastal areas to lands located higher
and more distant from the coast. The latter could
remain within country in the case of countries
with extensive areas (the USA, China) while in
other cases international migration will probably
intensify (Bangladesh, countries in Indochina,
coastal areas of Africa, island countries). The
extent of the above migration and its negative
economic consequences are very difficult to estimate (see Chap. 5).
Global warming of the climate and spatial differences in the process (including intensifying
extremities) will induce serious consequences
regarding natural wildlife as was presented in
Sect. 4.4. Tropical rainforests together with direct
anthropogenic burden (deforestation with fire) on
them will change in the direction of dryer climate
and savannahs will replace them as a result of
positive feedback.
Accelerated climate zone shifts could be beneficial for easily accommodating species because
rivalling (hardly accommodating) species could
perish. Retreating ice around the Arctic transforms the habitat of arctic life thus extinction of
certain species can be expected.
Retreating ice of the Arctic Sea, however,
could bring some advantages for the society.
The transport of massive goods from Western
Europe to the Far East could take place along
the Russian shores with 40% less distance than
4 Changes on Earth as a Result of Interaction Between the Society and Nature