xi
1 Introduction � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 1
1.1 Qualitative Changes in the Evolution of the Earth . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.2 Sustainable Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
1.3 From the Brundtland Report to Sustainable Development . . . 6
2 Structure and Operation of Systems, Models
of the Global Earth System � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 11
2.1 Systems Basics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
2.2 Operation of Material Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
2.2.1 Feedbacks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
2.2.2 Behaviour of Systems Regarding External
or Internal Effects: Chaos Theory and Adaptive
Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
2.3 Classification of Environmental Systems and Their Most
Important Characteristics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
2.4 Topology of Systems: Network Theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
2.5 System Models and Model Making . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
2.6 Earth Models, “World Models” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
2.6.1 PREM Model and the New Global
Geodynamic Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
2.6.2 Global Climate Simulation Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
2.6.3 A Controversial but Significant Biosphere
Model (GAIA) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
2.6.4 “World Models”: Models of the Global
Human Society . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
2.6.5 A Homomorphic Earth Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
3 Internal Material Flows in the Earth and Their Effects
on the Society � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 59
3.1 Material Flow in the Outer Core of Earth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
3.2 Effects of Material Flows in the Mantle
and the Lithosphere on the Society . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
3.2.1 Volcanism and the Society . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
3.2.2 Effects of Earthquakes on the Society . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
3.3 Effects of Volcanism and Earthquakes on Sustainable
Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
Contents
1 Introduction � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 1
1.1 Qualitative Changes in the Evolution of the Earth . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.2 Sustainable Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
1.3 From the Brundtland Report to Sustainable Development . . . 6
2 Structure and Operation of Systems, Models
of the Global Earth System � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 11
2.1 Systems Basics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
2.2 Operation of Material Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
2.2.1 Feedbacks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
2.2.2 Behaviour of Systems Regarding External
or Internal Effects: Chaos Theory and Adaptive
Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
2.3 Classification of Environmental Systems and Their Most
Important Characteristics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
2.4 Topology of Systems: Network Theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
2.5 System Models and Model Making . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
2.6 Earth Models, “World Models” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
2.6.1 PREM Model and the New Global
Geodynamic Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
2.6.2 Global Climate Simulation Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
2.6.3 A Controversial but Significant Biosphere
Model (GAIA) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
2.6.4 “World Models”: Models of the Global
Human Society . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
2.6.5 A Homomorphic Earth Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
3 Internal Material Flows in the Earth and Their Effects
on the Society � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 59
3.1 Material Flow in the Outer Core of Earth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
3.2 Effects of Material Flows in the Mantle
and the Lithosphere on the Society . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
3.2.1 Volcanism and the Society . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
3.2.2 Effects of Earthquakes on the Society . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
3.3 Effects of Volcanism and Earthquakes on Sustainable
Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
Contents