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percentage of reduction in the cultivated area and production was between 10% and
11%, with an average of 10%. The table also showed that the total cultivated area of
wheat in the old lands will be reduced to 905.3 thousand hectares and its production
will be reduced to 6388.6 million tons of wheat seeds with 8% reduction in both
area and production, compared to the their values in 2017.
With respect to the new lands, the total cultivated area will be reduced by 8% to
reach 208.7 thousand hectares and its production will be 1311.0 million tons, with
7% reduction, compared to 2017. In Lower Egypt, the percentage of reduction in the
cultivated area of wheat and its production was between 6% and 9%, with average
of 7%. In Middle Egypt, the percentage of reduction in the cultivated area and production was between 8% and 11%, with an average of 10%. Whereas, the percentage of reduction in the cultivated area of wheat and its production in Upper Egypt
was between 8% and 11%, with average of 7% and 6%, respectively. In Upper
Egypt, the percentage of reduction in the cultivated area and production was between
9% and 11%, with an average of 11% and 10%, respectively. Furthermore, 3–11%
reduction in the cultivated area of wheat in the boarder governorates and its cultivated area will be reduced by 3–8% under climate change, with an average of 8 and
7% respectively (Table 8.3).
Similar trend was observed for wheat total cultivated area and total production,
where the lowest percentage of reduction will be found in Lower Egypt and the
highest percentage of reduction will be found in Upper Egypt. The total cultivated
area will be reduced to be 1114.0 million hectares and it will produce 7700.1 million tons of wheat seeds, with percentage of reduction equal to 9% and 7% respectively (Table 8.4).
Population, Wheat Consumption and Wheat Production-Consumption Gap
Table 8.5 presented the projected Egyptian population in 2030, which it was
obtained from a report published by the Academy of Science and Technology in
Egypt in 2016. The consumption of wheat by the population is also presented. The
table revealed that, in Lower, Middle, and Upper Egypt, and boarder governorates,
population will be increase by 30, 29, 37 and 62%, respectively, compared to its
values in 2017.
Table 8.5 also showed that the total population will reach 125,871 million inhabitants, with 32% increase compare to its value in 2017. Accordingly, wheat consumption will be increase by 12, 10, 17 and 39% in Lower, Middle, and Upper
Egypt, and boarder governorates, with 13% increase compare to its value in 2017.
Thus, wheat consumed will reach 22,027 million tons, and wheat productionconsumption gap was 14,212 million tons. The ratio of wheat self-sufficiency in
2017 was 36%. Furthermore, it can be notice from the table only New Valley governorate in Upper Egypt will attain self-sufficiency in addition to surplus in wheat
production as a result of lower wheat consumption, compared to its wheat production.
8 Climate Change and Wheat Self-Sufficiency
percentage of reduction in the cultivated area and production was between 10% and
11%, with an average of 10%. The table also showed that the total cultivated area of
wheat in the old lands will be reduced to 905.3 thousand hectares and its production
will be reduced to 6388.6 million tons of wheat seeds with 8% reduction in both
area and production, compared to the their values in 2017.
With respect to the new lands, the total cultivated area will be reduced by 8% to
reach 208.7 thousand hectares and its production will be 1311.0 million tons, with
7% reduction, compared to 2017. In Lower Egypt, the percentage of reduction in the
cultivated area of wheat and its production was between 6% and 9%, with average
of 7%. In Middle Egypt, the percentage of reduction in the cultivated area and production was between 8% and 11%, with an average of 10%. Whereas, the percentage of reduction in the cultivated area of wheat and its production in Upper Egypt
was between 8% and 11%, with average of 7% and 6%, respectively. In Upper
Egypt, the percentage of reduction in the cultivated area and production was between
9% and 11%, with an average of 11% and 10%, respectively. Furthermore, 3–11%
reduction in the cultivated area of wheat in the boarder governorates and its cultivated area will be reduced by 3–8% under climate change, with an average of 8 and
7% respectively (Table 8.3).
Similar trend was observed for wheat total cultivated area and total production,
where the lowest percentage of reduction will be found in Lower Egypt and the
highest percentage of reduction will be found in Upper Egypt. The total cultivated
area will be reduced to be 1114.0 million hectares and it will produce 7700.1 million tons of wheat seeds, with percentage of reduction equal to 9% and 7% respectively (Table 8.4).
Population, Wheat Consumption and Wheat Production-Consumption Gap
Table 8.5 presented the projected Egyptian population in 2030, which it was
obtained from a report published by the Academy of Science and Technology in
Egypt in 2016. The consumption of wheat by the population is also presented. The
table revealed that, in Lower, Middle, and Upper Egypt, and boarder governorates,
population will be increase by 30, 29, 37 and 62%, respectively, compared to its
values in 2017.
Table 8.5 also showed that the total population will reach 125,871 million inhabitants, with 32% increase compare to its value in 2017. Accordingly, wheat consumption will be increase by 12, 10, 17 and 39% in Lower, Middle, and Upper
Egypt, and boarder governorates, with 13% increase compare to its value in 2017.
Thus, wheat consumed will reach 22,027 million tons, and wheat productionconsumption gap was 14,212 million tons. The ratio of wheat self-sufficiency in
2017 was 36%. Furthermore, it can be notice from the table only New Valley governorate in Upper Egypt will attain self-sufficiency in addition to surplus in wheat
production as a result of lower wheat consumption, compared to its wheat production.
8 Climate Change and Wheat Self-Sufficiency