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© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
S. Ouda et al., Deficit Irrigation, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-35586-9_8
Chapter 8
Climate Change and Wheat
Self- Sufficiency
Samiha Ouda and Abd El-Hafeez Zohry
Abstract In this chapter, we assessed the effect of climate change on wheat cultivated area and total production under five production alternatives, namely traditional cultivation, raised beds cultivation, application of deficit irrigation to wheat
grown on raised beds, implementing wheat intercropping systems and use the saved
irrigation water from other winter crops to cultivate new lands with wheat. Our aim
was to produce more wheat seeds to increase its self-sufficiency. To assess the effect
of climate change on evapotranspiration, climate change scenario RCP6.0 resulted
from MIROC5 model in 2030 was used in this analysis. Water requirements for
wheat were calculated on governorate level and the reductions in the cultivated area
were calculated. Wheat self-sufficiency ratios under the five production alternatives
were calculated, as well as water productivity values. The results showed that traditional cultivation resulted in 36% self-sufficiency ratio. Cultivation on raised beds
and application of deficit irrigation increased wheat self-sufficiency ratio to 47 and
50%, respectively as a result of increase in its production by 32 and 41%, compared
to its value under traditional cultivation. Furthermore, application of deficit irrigation and implementing intercropping systems, as well as application of deficit irrigation, implementing intercropping systems and using the saved water from other
crops to cultivate more wheat areas resulted in increasing total production by 57 and
68%, respectively compared to its value under traditional cultivation and that
increased wheat self-sufficiency ratio to reach 57 and 59%, respectively. The highest water productivity values were found under application of deficit irrigation,
implementing intercropping systems and use of saved water from two winter crops
to increase the cultivated area of wheat.
Keywords RCP6.0 resulted from MIROC5 model · Raised beds · Deficit
irrigation · Wheat intercropping systems
S. Ouda (*)
Water Requirements and Field Irrigation Research Department, Soils, Water and Environment
Research Institute, Agricultural Research Center, Giza, Egypt
A. E.-H. Zohry
Crop Intensification Research Department, Field Crops Research Institute, Agricultural
Research Center, Giza, Egypt
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
S. Ouda et al., Deficit Irrigation, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-35586-9_8
Chapter 8
Climate Change and Wheat
Self- Sufficiency
Samiha Ouda and Abd El-Hafeez Zohry
Abstract In this chapter, we assessed the effect of climate change on wheat cultivated area and total production under five production alternatives, namely traditional cultivation, raised beds cultivation, application of deficit irrigation to wheat
grown on raised beds, implementing wheat intercropping systems and use the saved
irrigation water from other winter crops to cultivate new lands with wheat. Our aim
was to produce more wheat seeds to increase its self-sufficiency. To assess the effect
of climate change on evapotranspiration, climate change scenario RCP6.0 resulted
from MIROC5 model in 2030 was used in this analysis. Water requirements for
wheat were calculated on governorate level and the reductions in the cultivated area
were calculated. Wheat self-sufficiency ratios under the five production alternatives
were calculated, as well as water productivity values. The results showed that traditional cultivation resulted in 36% self-sufficiency ratio. Cultivation on raised beds
and application of deficit irrigation increased wheat self-sufficiency ratio to 47 and
50%, respectively as a result of increase in its production by 32 and 41%, compared
to its value under traditional cultivation. Furthermore, application of deficit irrigation and implementing intercropping systems, as well as application of deficit irrigation, implementing intercropping systems and using the saved water from other
crops to cultivate more wheat areas resulted in increasing total production by 57 and
68%, respectively compared to its value under traditional cultivation and that
increased wheat self-sufficiency ratio to reach 57 and 59%, respectively. The highest water productivity values were found under application of deficit irrigation,
implementing intercropping systems and use of saved water from two winter crops
to increase the cultivated area of wheat.
Keywords RCP6.0 resulted from MIROC5 model · Raised beds · Deficit
irrigation · Wheat intercropping systems
S. Ouda (*)
Water Requirements and Field Irrigation Research Department, Soils, Water and Environment
Research Institute, Agricultural Research Center, Giza, Egypt
A. E.-H. Zohry
Crop Intensification Research Department, Field Crops Research Institute, Agricultural
Research Center, Giza, Egypt