145
studied. Eight fertigation treatments (interaction between irrigation with 0.6, 0.8,
1.0 and 1.2 ETc and fertigation application in 60 and 80% of irrigation time), in
addition to farmer irrigation were tested. The results showed that the highest yield
reduction, i.e. 39 and 37% was obtained under A2 and B2 climate change scenarios,
respectively for farmer irrigation. The lowest yield reduction was obtained under
irrigation with 1.0 ETc and fertigation application in 80% of irrigation time, i.e. 27
and 24% under A2 and B2 climate change scenarios, respectively (Taha 2012).
Similar experiment was applied for maize with the same treatments. The results
showed that the highest yield reduction, i.e. 43 and 41% was obtained under A2 and
B2 climate change scenarios, respectively for farmer irrigation. The lowest yield
reduction was obtained under irrigation with 1.2 ETc and fertigation application in
80% of irrigation time, i.e. 38 and 35% under A2 and B2 climate change scenarios,
respectively (Taha 2012).
7.3.3 Using IPCC Report (2013)
IPCC (2013) developed new global climate change models for new projection, mitigation and adaptation scenarios involving policy decisions and options for targeted
climate change stabilization at different levels during the IPCC Fifth Assessment
Report (AR5). Its findings were based on a new set of scenarios that replace SRES
(Wayne 2013). The climate projections in the IPCC fifth assessment report were
based on Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). This presents
an unprecedented level of information on which to base projections including the
latest versions of climate models. It includes more complete representation of forcings to produce a new four Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios
(RCPs) and more output available for analysis.
Sayad et al. (2015) compared between measured weather data and projected data
(2006–2014) from four global climate models (BCC-CSM1-1, CCSM4, GFDLESM 2G and MIROC5), with four Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) developed for four Egyptian
governorates (Kafr El-Sheikh, El-Gharbia, El-Minya and Sohag) to determine the
suitable RCPs climate change scenarios in 2030 at each governorate. Their results
indicated that the RCP6.0 developed by CCSM4 model and RCP8.5 developed by
BCC-CSM1-1 and MIROC5 models were acceptable for Kafr El-Sheikh governorate. Whereas, the suitable scenarios for El-Gharbia governorate was RCP6.0 developed by CCSM4 model and RCP8.5 developed by MIROC5 model. Nevertheless,
in El-Minia governorate, the highest agreement between measured and projected
values was found for RCP8.5 and RCP6.0 scenarios developed by CCSM4 model.
With respect to Sohag, the most suitable scenario was RCP6.0 which is developed
by CCSM4 model. Consequently, they recommended the use the RCP6.0 scenario
developed by CCSM4 model as a suitable scenario for all selected governorates.
Using the results of the above investigation, Ouda (2017) calculated the increase
in weather elements in 2030, compared to its values in 2040. Table 7.3 shows the
7 Climate Change Assessment in Egypt: A Review
studied. Eight fertigation treatments (interaction between irrigation with 0.6, 0.8,
1.0 and 1.2 ETc and fertigation application in 60 and 80% of irrigation time), in
addition to farmer irrigation were tested. The results showed that the highest yield
reduction, i.e. 39 and 37% was obtained under A2 and B2 climate change scenarios,
respectively for farmer irrigation. The lowest yield reduction was obtained under
irrigation with 1.0 ETc and fertigation application in 80% of irrigation time, i.e. 27
and 24% under A2 and B2 climate change scenarios, respectively (Taha 2012).
Similar experiment was applied for maize with the same treatments. The results
showed that the highest yield reduction, i.e. 43 and 41% was obtained under A2 and
B2 climate change scenarios, respectively for farmer irrigation. The lowest yield
reduction was obtained under irrigation with 1.2 ETc and fertigation application in
80% of irrigation time, i.e. 38 and 35% under A2 and B2 climate change scenarios,
respectively (Taha 2012).
7.3.3 Using IPCC Report (2013)
IPCC (2013) developed new global climate change models for new projection, mitigation and adaptation scenarios involving policy decisions and options for targeted
climate change stabilization at different levels during the IPCC Fifth Assessment
Report (AR5). Its findings were based on a new set of scenarios that replace SRES
(Wayne 2013). The climate projections in the IPCC fifth assessment report were
based on Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). This presents
an unprecedented level of information on which to base projections including the
latest versions of climate models. It includes more complete representation of forcings to produce a new four Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios
(RCPs) and more output available for analysis.
Sayad et al. (2015) compared between measured weather data and projected data
(2006–2014) from four global climate models (BCC-CSM1-1, CCSM4, GFDLESM 2G and MIROC5), with four Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) developed for four Egyptian
governorates (Kafr El-Sheikh, El-Gharbia, El-Minya and Sohag) to determine the
suitable RCPs climate change scenarios in 2030 at each governorate. Their results
indicated that the RCP6.0 developed by CCSM4 model and RCP8.5 developed by
BCC-CSM1-1 and MIROC5 models were acceptable for Kafr El-Sheikh governorate. Whereas, the suitable scenarios for El-Gharbia governorate was RCP6.0 developed by CCSM4 model and RCP8.5 developed by MIROC5 model. Nevertheless,
in El-Minia governorate, the highest agreement between measured and projected
values was found for RCP8.5 and RCP6.0 scenarios developed by CCSM4 model.
With respect to Sohag, the most suitable scenario was RCP6.0 which is developed
by CCSM4 model. Consequently, they recommended the use the RCP6.0 scenario
developed by CCSM4 model as a suitable scenario for all selected governorates.
Using the results of the above investigation, Ouda (2017) calculated the increase
in weather elements in 2030, compared to its values in 2040. Table 7.3 shows the
7 Climate Change Assessment in Egypt: A Review