(Veldman et al. 2017; Bond and Zaloumis 2016), with more recent acceleration
possibly being due to increasing CO 2 levels (Buitenwerf et al. 2012).
Restoration and reforestation efforts have been aiming to reverse deforestation
and forest degradation in the region (Fig. 9.4c). However, such efforts are sometimes
misplaced, with large savanna areas being targeted for tree plantation purposes
(Fig. 9.4c). Approximately 30% of savanna areas are currently identified as forest
(in gray, Fig. 9.4c), while 70% are targeted for restoration, including both savannas
in mosaic and large extent of savannas. However, these areas have actually been
savannas since the Last Glacial Maximum, and essentially represent a strongly stable
state, considering that savannas and forests are alternative stable states in areas of
intermediate rainfall (Staver et al. 2011a, b; Veldman et al. 2015a; Bond and
Zaloumis 2016; Veldman 2016) (Sect. 9.1).
Protected areas are crucial for sustaining biodiversity and ecosystem processes
and services, in both forest and savanna areas. They can also protect landscapes
against misplaced reforestation projects and unsustainable logging practices. Currently, protected areas in central Africa cover approximately 17.5% of forests and
12.2% of savannas (Fig. 9.4b, c). This represents a relatively lower fraction of
protected area coverage, compared to other parts of SSA such as East and
South Africa (Aleman et al. 2016; IPBES 2018).
9.3.3.2 Predicted Vegetation Changes
We then explore the effects of future land use and climatic change in the area
currently covered by forests and savannas in central Africa. Cropland expansion is
expected to affect significantly savanna areas, considering that more than 40,000 and
150,000 km
2 of land will be converted for crop production by 2070 according to
RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6, respectively (Fig. 9.5a, b). The changes according to the most
“optimistic” scenario in terms of emissions and radiative forcing (RCP 2.6) are
projected to be more significant in savanna areas (14% converted area) compared to
RCP 8.5 (2.8% converted area) (Fig. 9.5a). Forests are expected to be less affected,
with only 0.5% and 0.2% of their area converted, respectively (Fig. 9.5a). This is
mainly due to the fact that forests are much more protected under these scenarios
than savannas (IPCC 2014). This large increase in cropland under RCP 2.6 reflects
the large expansion of biofuel production (Van Vuuren et al. 2011) (see Chaps. 2–4,
Vol. 1; Chap. 5, Vol. 2).
When it comes to climate change impacts, it is projected that rainfall patterns will
change and the probability of drought and extreme events will increase. Rainfall
9 Long-Term Vegetation Change in Central Africa: The Need for an Integrated. . .
299
possibly being due to increasing CO 2 levels (Buitenwerf et al. 2012).
Restoration and reforestation efforts have been aiming to reverse deforestation
and forest degradation in the region (Fig. 9.4c). However, such efforts are sometimes
misplaced, with large savanna areas being targeted for tree plantation purposes
(Fig. 9.4c). Approximately 30% of savanna areas are currently identified as forest
(in gray, Fig. 9.4c), while 70% are targeted for restoration, including both savannas
in mosaic and large extent of savannas. However, these areas have actually been
savannas since the Last Glacial Maximum, and essentially represent a strongly stable
state, considering that savannas and forests are alternative stable states in areas of
intermediate rainfall (Staver et al. 2011a, b; Veldman et al. 2015a; Bond and
Zaloumis 2016; Veldman 2016) (Sect. 9.1).
Protected areas are crucial for sustaining biodiversity and ecosystem processes
and services, in both forest and savanna areas. They can also protect landscapes
against misplaced reforestation projects and unsustainable logging practices. Currently, protected areas in central Africa cover approximately 17.5% of forests and
12.2% of savannas (Fig. 9.4b, c). This represents a relatively lower fraction of
protected area coverage, compared to other parts of SSA such as East and
South Africa (Aleman et al. 2016; IPBES 2018).
9.3.3.2 Predicted Vegetation Changes
We then explore the effects of future land use and climatic change in the area
currently covered by forests and savannas in central Africa. Cropland expansion is
expected to affect significantly savanna areas, considering that more than 40,000 and
150,000 km
2 of land will be converted for crop production by 2070 according to
RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6, respectively (Fig. 9.5a, b). The changes according to the most
“optimistic” scenario in terms of emissions and radiative forcing (RCP 2.6) are
projected to be more significant in savanna areas (14% converted area) compared to
RCP 8.5 (2.8% converted area) (Fig. 9.5a). Forests are expected to be less affected,
with only 0.5% and 0.2% of their area converted, respectively (Fig. 9.5a). This is
mainly due to the fact that forests are much more protected under these scenarios
than savannas (IPCC 2014). This large increase in cropland under RCP 2.6 reflects
the large expansion of biofuel production (Van Vuuren et al. 2011) (see Chaps. 2–4,
Vol. 1; Chap. 5, Vol. 2).
When it comes to climate change impacts, it is projected that rainfall patterns will
change and the probability of drought and extreme events will increase. Rainfall
9 Long-Term Vegetation Change in Central Africa: The Need for an Integrated. . .
299