491
million years of its emergence.
41
Yet, we now have numerous, informed voices
chiming in on the loose prediction that the human species will be gone, wiped out,
within a century or sooner, which would leave our kind a legacy of biological presence at roughly 330,000 years, a far cry from ten million years.
42
While predictions about the end of humanity vary (even the extinction of
Neanderthal has been mathematically computed),
43
the economics of increasing
conservation scarcity are reflected in policies aimed not at preserving the natural
world, but preserving human jobs. And thus, it is no surprise that, based upon a
combination of fieldwork and computer simulations, algorithms have, for several
years, been applied to proposed policies of conservation triage, a phrase normally
banished from the ecologist’s toolkit. This is precisely because it relies on the
expediency that can be wrought from economic volatility, which might translate
into putting resources into trying to prolong the life of “the woodland caribou, the
Indiana bat, the Hawaiian crow” but only at the expense of California’s marbled
murrelet or Florida’s gopher tortoise.
44
Winners and losers. This ordained syndrome which views human economic
progress in conflict with nature has been eloquently described by Aileen Lee,
Chief Program Officer for Environmental Conservation at the Gordon and Betty
Moore Foundation as a “pernicious mindset … an artifact of having operated for
so long in a system that has been engineered for exploitation rather than resilience — where our choices about living with nature are constrained toward delivering a narrow set of benefits that flow toward a similarly restricted set of
beneficiaries”.
45
In selecting our natural cohorts from across every taxonomic suite, it is, of
course, worse than mere wishful thinking to play god. Especially in light of the data
41 Newman, Mark (1997). “A model of mass extinction”. Journal of Theoretical Biology. 189 (3):
235–252. arXiv:adap-org/9702003. https://doi.org/10.1006/jtbi.1997.0508. PMID 9441817.
42 In addition to scientists like E. O. Wilson and P. R. Ehrlich referenced earlier, there is also the
Australian scientist, Frank Fenner, in was involved in the extermination of smallpox, who a decade
ago gave our species 100 years. “Humans will be extinct in 100 years says eminent scientist,” by
Lin Edwards, Phys.org, June 23, 2010, https://phys.org/news/2010-06-humans-extinct-years-eminent-scientist.html, Accessed May 15, 2020. Smallpox provides one of countless exceptions to the
rule of 10 million years, however. It is known to have existed as a viral species for only about 3,000
years, and was driven to extinction by a coalition led by the World Health Organization in 1977. Its
last known location was in Somalia. See World Health Organization, “Frequently asked questions
and answers on smallpox,” June 28, 2016, https://www.who.int/csr/disease/smallpox/faq/en/,
Accessed May 15, 2020.
43 See “A mathematical model for Neanderthal extinction,” by J. C. Flores, for the Journal of
Theoretical Biology, London, http://cds.cern.ch/record/342444/files/9712024.pdf, Accessed May
16, 2020.
44 See “How a Math Formula Could Decide the Fate of Endangered U.S. Species,” by Sharon
Bernstein, Scientific American, June 19,. 2017, https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/howa-math-formula-could-decide-the-fate-of-endangered-u-s-species/. Accessed May 15, 2020.
45 “Perspective: Nature has sent humanity a wake-up call. How will we answer? https://www.
moore.org/article-detail?newsUrlName=perspective-nature-has-sent-humanity-a-wake-up-call.how-will-we-answer, Accessed May `16, 2020.
52.2 Probability Theories
million years of its emergence.
41
Yet, we now have numerous, informed voices
chiming in on the loose prediction that the human species will be gone, wiped out,
within a century or sooner, which would leave our kind a legacy of biological presence at roughly 330,000 years, a far cry from ten million years.
42
While predictions about the end of humanity vary (even the extinction of
Neanderthal has been mathematically computed),
43
the economics of increasing
conservation scarcity are reflected in policies aimed not at preserving the natural
world, but preserving human jobs. And thus, it is no surprise that, based upon a
combination of fieldwork and computer simulations, algorithms have, for several
years, been applied to proposed policies of conservation triage, a phrase normally
banished from the ecologist’s toolkit. This is precisely because it relies on the
expediency that can be wrought from economic volatility, which might translate
into putting resources into trying to prolong the life of “the woodland caribou, the
Indiana bat, the Hawaiian crow” but only at the expense of California’s marbled
murrelet or Florida’s gopher tortoise.
44
Winners and losers. This ordained syndrome which views human economic
progress in conflict with nature has been eloquently described by Aileen Lee,
Chief Program Officer for Environmental Conservation at the Gordon and Betty
Moore Foundation as a “pernicious mindset … an artifact of having operated for
so long in a system that has been engineered for exploitation rather than resilience — where our choices about living with nature are constrained toward delivering a narrow set of benefits that flow toward a similarly restricted set of
beneficiaries”.
45
In selecting our natural cohorts from across every taxonomic suite, it is, of
course, worse than mere wishful thinking to play god. Especially in light of the data
41 Newman, Mark (1997). “A model of mass extinction”. Journal of Theoretical Biology. 189 (3):
235–252. arXiv:adap-org/9702003. https://doi.org/10.1006/jtbi.1997.0508. PMID 9441817.
42 In addition to scientists like E. O. Wilson and P. R. Ehrlich referenced earlier, there is also the
Australian scientist, Frank Fenner, in was involved in the extermination of smallpox, who a decade
ago gave our species 100 years. “Humans will be extinct in 100 years says eminent scientist,” by
Lin Edwards, Phys.org, June 23, 2010, https://phys.org/news/2010-06-humans-extinct-years-eminent-scientist.html, Accessed May 15, 2020. Smallpox provides one of countless exceptions to the
rule of 10 million years, however. It is known to have existed as a viral species for only about 3,000
years, and was driven to extinction by a coalition led by the World Health Organization in 1977. Its
last known location was in Somalia. See World Health Organization, “Frequently asked questions
and answers on smallpox,” June 28, 2016, https://www.who.int/csr/disease/smallpox/faq/en/,
Accessed May 15, 2020.
43 See “A mathematical model for Neanderthal extinction,” by J. C. Flores, for the Journal of
Theoretical Biology, London, http://cds.cern.ch/record/342444/files/9712024.pdf, Accessed May
16, 2020.
44 See “How a Math Formula Could Decide the Fate of Endangered U.S. Species,” by Sharon
Bernstein, Scientific American, June 19,. 2017, https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/howa-math-formula-could-decide-the-fate-of-endangered-u-s-species/. Accessed May 15, 2020.
45 “Perspective: Nature has sent humanity a wake-up call. How will we answer? https://www.
moore.org/article-detail?newsUrlName=perspective-nature-has-sent-humanity-a-wake-up-call.how-will-we-answer, Accessed May `16, 2020.
52.2 Probability Theories