490
that they were to become far more critical to science, engineering and thinking
about human nature than merely a game of dice, though nothing about the statistics
of scattering those dice has changed. But what has been altered, and veering ever
more tightly into our headlights, are the probability factors affecting the science and
judgments regarding biological precariousness, and extinction. Data devolves to the
subjective. “Probabilistic coherence plays much the same role for degrees of belief
that consistency plays for ordinary, all-or-nothing beliefs,” writes Alan Hájek.
36
Hájek cites a 1929 lecture by Bertrand Russell who had declared, “Probability is the
most important concept in modern science, especially as nobody has the slightest
notion what it means”.
37
But where the philosophy of coherent systems embracing rational ideations of
what is probable ineluctably sway from any classical, “logical/evidential
interpretations”
38
is at that bifurcation point where predictions have but scant protocol, forensic materials, be it in the case of fragmented probability spaces, an
absence in some fossil record (“fossilized species may represent less than 1% of
all the species that have ever lived”),
39
or the extinction of a culture and their language. The sum total of destructions that make up the Anthropocene
40
represents a
time- conditional variable that doubly skews both the derived data, and its interpretive sphere. In part, this problem stems from the criteria applied to assessing
extinctions.
The French naturalist Georges Cuvier (1769–1832) is credited with first recognizing the concept of extinction, through his work in vertebrate paleontology. He
examined the bones of North and South American mastodons, Pterosaurs, ground
sloths, and grasped the reality that these particular creatures no longer existed;
beings that had been caught up in the tumultuous life history of earth—not victims
of evolution, which he did not ascribe to, but great and terrifying events, like floods
and volcanism, which destroyed and created.
Generally, biologists agree on a 100-year rule. A species having been absent
from any field records for at least a century in the wild has thus conceded its own
extinction. Also, it is assumed that in general every species goes extinct within ten
Foundations Of Probability Theory,” by A. N. Kolmogorov, in Probability Theory and
Mathematical Statistics, September 11, 2006, pp. 1–5, https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.
1007%2FBFb0072897; see also, H. E. Kyburg, Probability and Inductive Logic, Macmillan,
New York, 1970.
36 “Interpretations of Probability,” Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, August 28, 2019. Stanford
Center for the Study of Language and Information, https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/probabilityinterpret/, Accessed May 15, 2020.
37 In E.T. Bell, The Development of Mathematics, 2
nd edition, McGraw-Hill Company, New York,
1945, p. 587.
38 op.cit., Hájek.
39 “Evidence of Evolution,” lumencandela, CC BY-SA, OpenStax College, Attribution-ShareAlike,
Boundless Biology, December 6, 2013, https://courses.lumenlearning.com/boundless-biology/
chapter/evidence-of-evolution/. Accessed May 15, 2020.
40 See, for example, The Human Planet – Earth At The Dawn Of The Anthropocene, by George
Steinmetz and Andrew Revkin, Abrams Publishers, New York, April 2020.
52 The Extinction Probability Era
that they were to become far more critical to science, engineering and thinking
about human nature than merely a game of dice, though nothing about the statistics
of scattering those dice has changed. But what has been altered, and veering ever
more tightly into our headlights, are the probability factors affecting the science and
judgments regarding biological precariousness, and extinction. Data devolves to the
subjective. “Probabilistic coherence plays much the same role for degrees of belief
that consistency plays for ordinary, all-or-nothing beliefs,” writes Alan Hájek.
36
Hájek cites a 1929 lecture by Bertrand Russell who had declared, “Probability is the
most important concept in modern science, especially as nobody has the slightest
notion what it means”.
37
But where the philosophy of coherent systems embracing rational ideations of
what is probable ineluctably sway from any classical, “logical/evidential
interpretations”
38
is at that bifurcation point where predictions have but scant protocol, forensic materials, be it in the case of fragmented probability spaces, an
absence in some fossil record (“fossilized species may represent less than 1% of
all the species that have ever lived”),
39
or the extinction of a culture and their language. The sum total of destructions that make up the Anthropocene
40
represents a
time- conditional variable that doubly skews both the derived data, and its interpretive sphere. In part, this problem stems from the criteria applied to assessing
extinctions.
The French naturalist Georges Cuvier (1769–1832) is credited with first recognizing the concept of extinction, through his work in vertebrate paleontology. He
examined the bones of North and South American mastodons, Pterosaurs, ground
sloths, and grasped the reality that these particular creatures no longer existed;
beings that had been caught up in the tumultuous life history of earth—not victims
of evolution, which he did not ascribe to, but great and terrifying events, like floods
and volcanism, which destroyed and created.
Generally, biologists agree on a 100-year rule. A species having been absent
from any field records for at least a century in the wild has thus conceded its own
extinction. Also, it is assumed that in general every species goes extinct within ten
Foundations Of Probability Theory,” by A. N. Kolmogorov, in Probability Theory and
Mathematical Statistics, September 11, 2006, pp. 1–5, https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.
1007%2FBFb0072897; see also, H. E. Kyburg, Probability and Inductive Logic, Macmillan,
New York, 1970.
36 “Interpretations of Probability,” Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, August 28, 2019. Stanford
Center for the Study of Language and Information, https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/probabilityinterpret/, Accessed May 15, 2020.
37 In E.T. Bell, The Development of Mathematics, 2
nd edition, McGraw-Hill Company, New York,
1945, p. 587.
38 op.cit., Hájek.
39 “Evidence of Evolution,” lumencandela, CC BY-SA, OpenStax College, Attribution-ShareAlike,
Boundless Biology, December 6, 2013, https://courses.lumenlearning.com/boundless-biology/
chapter/evidence-of-evolution/. Accessed May 15, 2020.
40 See, for example, The Human Planet – Earth At The Dawn Of The Anthropocene, by George
Steinmetz and Andrew Revkin, Abrams Publishers, New York, April 2020.
52 The Extinction Probability Era