488
calculating forest fire liabilities,
23
food insecurity
24
and all forms of energy turbulence, as described by physicist Robert Kraichnan’s statistical theories of “energy
cascades”,
25
there are enormous gaps in probability and distribution models. They
could be characterized like the CBOE Index of Volatility on Wall Street;
26
the shifting epidemiological mortalities as described by the University of Washington novel
coronavirus modeling;
27
the metric trade-offs and triage associated with the reopening of an economy during a zoonotic pandemic, or, for that matter, the shifting
political tides dictating protocols in American schools against a backdrop of rampant gun violence and mass shootings.
Even at the level of a single second, as defined by the International System of
Units (SI), a “duration” (of one second”) is a measure of 8,192,631,770 radiation
cycles rotating between energy levels of one atom of cesium-133, all of which is
vulnerable to minute oscillation/frequency shifts.
28
Associated with that fractured
second is a thermonuclear detonation and the risk of it happening, as perceived by
the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists who, as of 2020 inform us we are “Closer than
ever: It is 100 seconds to midnight,” a profoundly unstable situation.
29
We are each of us metaphysicians because we somehow manage to survive, for a
time, knowing fully well that the world is closing in. We are marooned in a probability era given to an uneasy, indeed, fully reminded context of multivariate biological
extinctions occurring continuously, between those micro-seconds. The forlorn craziness of the enshrouding arithmetic condemns the exercise of awareness to winners
and losers, at least in the starkest terms.
30
Persistence and diffusion are variables
23 See, for example, “North American Seasonal Fire Assessment and Outlook,” National Interagency
Fire Center, May, June, and July 2020, https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive/outlooks/NA_
Outlook.pdf.
24 See “2020 Winter/Spring Flood Outlooks,” National Weather Service, NOAA, https://www.
weather.gov/marfc/WinterSpring_Flood_Outlook
25 See Kraichnan (1958). “Higher Order Interactions in Homogeneous Turbulence Theory”. Physics
of Fluids. 1 (4): 358. Bibcode:1958PhFl.1.358K. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.1705897.
26 See https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/vix.asp.
27 See “UW experts on novel coronavirus (COVID-19),” n.a. https://www.washington.edu/news/
for-journalists/uw-experts-on-novel-coronavirus-covid-19/. Accessed May 14, 2020. Even Bill
Gates, whose Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has put hundreds-of-millions of dollars into
predicting and preparing for the virus expressed certain personal “regret” for not being even more
forceful in driving home his critical message to policy makers -who largely ignored the warning regarding the prospects for a novel coronavirus outbreak. See https://www.wsj.com/articles/billgates-coronavirus-vaccine-covid-19-11589207803, Accessed May 14, 2020.
28 “International System of Units (SI)” (PDF) (8th ed.) International Bureau of Weights and
Measures (BIPM). 2006. See also, “FAQs”. Franklin Instrument Company. 2007.
29 Press Release, Washington, D.C., January 23, 2020, https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/,
Accessed May 14, 2020.
30 See “Partial Survival and Extinction of Species in Discrete Nonautonomous Lotka-Volterra
Systems, by Hoshiaki Muroya, Tokyo Journal of Mathematics, Project Euclid mathematics and
statistics online, Volume 28, Number 1, 2005, pp. 189–200. https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.
tjm/1244208288, Accessed May 14, 2020.
52 The Extinction Probability Era
calculating forest fire liabilities,
23
food insecurity
24
and all forms of energy turbulence, as described by physicist Robert Kraichnan’s statistical theories of “energy
cascades”,
25
there are enormous gaps in probability and distribution models. They
could be characterized like the CBOE Index of Volatility on Wall Street;
26
the shifting epidemiological mortalities as described by the University of Washington novel
coronavirus modeling;
27
the metric trade-offs and triage associated with the reopening of an economy during a zoonotic pandemic, or, for that matter, the shifting
political tides dictating protocols in American schools against a backdrop of rampant gun violence and mass shootings.
Even at the level of a single second, as defined by the International System of
Units (SI), a “duration” (of one second”) is a measure of 8,192,631,770 radiation
cycles rotating between energy levels of one atom of cesium-133, all of which is
vulnerable to minute oscillation/frequency shifts.
28
Associated with that fractured
second is a thermonuclear detonation and the risk of it happening, as perceived by
the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists who, as of 2020 inform us we are “Closer than
ever: It is 100 seconds to midnight,” a profoundly unstable situation.
29
We are each of us metaphysicians because we somehow manage to survive, for a
time, knowing fully well that the world is closing in. We are marooned in a probability era given to an uneasy, indeed, fully reminded context of multivariate biological
extinctions occurring continuously, between those micro-seconds. The forlorn craziness of the enshrouding arithmetic condemns the exercise of awareness to winners
and losers, at least in the starkest terms.
30
Persistence and diffusion are variables
23 See, for example, “North American Seasonal Fire Assessment and Outlook,” National Interagency
Fire Center, May, June, and July 2020, https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive/outlooks/NA_
Outlook.pdf.
24 See “2020 Winter/Spring Flood Outlooks,” National Weather Service, NOAA, https://www.
weather.gov/marfc/WinterSpring_Flood_Outlook
25 See Kraichnan (1958). “Higher Order Interactions in Homogeneous Turbulence Theory”. Physics
of Fluids. 1 (4): 358. Bibcode:1958PhFl.1.358K. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.1705897.
26 See https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/vix.asp.
27 See “UW experts on novel coronavirus (COVID-19),” n.a. https://www.washington.edu/news/
for-journalists/uw-experts-on-novel-coronavirus-covid-19/. Accessed May 14, 2020. Even Bill
Gates, whose Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has put hundreds-of-millions of dollars into
predicting and preparing for the virus expressed certain personal “regret” for not being even more
forceful in driving home his critical message to policy makers -who largely ignored the warning regarding the prospects for a novel coronavirus outbreak. See https://www.wsj.com/articles/billgates-coronavirus-vaccine-covid-19-11589207803, Accessed May 14, 2020.
28 “International System of Units (SI)” (PDF) (8th ed.) International Bureau of Weights and
Measures (BIPM). 2006. See also, “FAQs”. Franklin Instrument Company. 2007.
29 Press Release, Washington, D.C., January 23, 2020, https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/,
Accessed May 14, 2020.
30 See “Partial Survival and Extinction of Species in Discrete Nonautonomous Lotka-Volterra
Systems, by Hoshiaki Muroya, Tokyo Journal of Mathematics, Project Euclid mathematics and
statistics online, Volume 28, Number 1, 2005, pp. 189–200. https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.
tjm/1244208288, Accessed May 14, 2020.
52 The Extinction Probability Era