487
But we don’t know for absolute certainty, nor do we have a clue how all those consumers will behave (the IPAT equation + Tragedy of the Commons syndrome).
14
We can examine environmental security flaws and their probability factors in
4-D (3D + temporality), whether in regard to what went wrong at Fukushima before,
during and after the disaster there on March 11, 2022
15
or by any number of engineering monitoring technologies for risks in every conceivable industry relating to
such inherent ecological events as groundwater pollution, toxic plume remediation,
hydraulic fracturing problems, municipal infrastructure decay, landfills, sewage,
and so on.
16
But for every analytical certainty there is the obverse flaw, measurements even slightly awry at the level of a single NASA Challenger rubber O-ring
seal: a projected “~13% likelihood of O-ring failure at 31 °F, compared to NASA’s
general shuttle failure estimate of 0.001%”.
17
Whether with regard to seismic measurements,
18
precipitation,
19
hurricane
20
and
other extreme weather predictions,
21
avalanche and mountain hazards in general,
22
14 See Ehrlich, Paul R.; Holdren, John P. (1971). “Impact of Population Growth”. Science.
American Association for the Advancement of Science. 171 (3977): 1212–1217. Bibcode:1971Sci
171.1212E. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.171.3977.1212. JSTOR 1731166. PMID 5545198.
See also, “The Tragedy of the Commons,” by Garrertt Hardin, Science 13 Dec 1968: Vol. 162,
Issue 3859, pp. 1243–1248, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.162.3859.1243, https://science.sciencemag.org/content/162/3859/1243, Accessed May 14, 2020.
15 See “Japan’s Unknown Ecological Tragedy,” by M.C.Tobias, Forbes, March 17, 2011, https://
w w w. f o r b e s . c o m / s i t e s / m i c h a e l t o b i a s / 2 0 1 1 / 0 3 / 1 7 / j a p a n s - u n kow n - e c o l o g i c a l -
tragedy/#64936150269b; See also, “Japan’s Tragedy: Global Ecological Uncertainty,” by
M.C.Tobias, Forbes, March 13, 2011, https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeltobias/2011/03/13/
japans-tragedy-global-ecological-uncertainty/#2b8c1d728e30
16 See “Environmental Security: Sensing the World in 4-D,” by M.C.Tobias, Forbes, January 31,
2012, https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeltobias/2012/01/31/environmental-security-sensingthe-world-in-4-d/#73ab9c594d3a
17 See “The Space Shuttle Challenger Explosion and the O-ring,” by Nemil Dalal, Priceonomics,
https://priceonomics.com/the-space-shuttle-challenger-explosion-and-the-o/n.d, Accessed May
14, 2020.
18 See “Seismic Risk Assessment Using Stochastic Nonlinear Models,” by Yeudy F. Vargas-Alzate,
Nieves Lantada, and Ramón González-Drigo, and Luis G. Pujades, Sustainability 2020 12(4),
1308; https://doi.org/10.3390/su12041308, February 11, 2020, https://www.mdpi.com/20711050/12/4/1308, Accessed May 14, 2020.
19 See “ETA-Based Mos Probability Of Precipitation (PoP) And Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
(QPF) Guidance For The Continental United States,” by Joseph C. Maloney: “…categorical forecasts are no post-processed and inconsistent forecasts can result…” p. 6, https://www.weather.gov/
media/mdl/487.pdf
20 See National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center, https://www.nhc.noaa.
gov/. Accessed May 14, 2020
21 See “Severe weather prediction,” by ECMWF (The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather
Forecasts), https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/who-we-are.
22 See “Reducing Uncertainty in Hazard Prediction,” by Karim Riley, Matt Thompson, Peter
Webley, and Kevin Hyde, April 28, 2017, Eos, Science News by AGU, Editors’ Vox, https://eos.
org/editors-vox/reducing-uncertainty-in-hazard-prediction, Accessed May 14, 2020.
52.1 Navigating a World of Chance and Uncertainty
But we don’t know for absolute certainty, nor do we have a clue how all those consumers will behave (the IPAT equation + Tragedy of the Commons syndrome).
14
We can examine environmental security flaws and their probability factors in
4-D (3D + temporality), whether in regard to what went wrong at Fukushima before,
during and after the disaster there on March 11, 2022
15
or by any number of engineering monitoring technologies for risks in every conceivable industry relating to
such inherent ecological events as groundwater pollution, toxic plume remediation,
hydraulic fracturing problems, municipal infrastructure decay, landfills, sewage,
and so on.
16
But for every analytical certainty there is the obverse flaw, measurements even slightly awry at the level of a single NASA Challenger rubber O-ring
seal: a projected “~13% likelihood of O-ring failure at 31 °F, compared to NASA’s
general shuttle failure estimate of 0.001%”.
17
Whether with regard to seismic measurements,
18
precipitation,
19
hurricane
20
and
other extreme weather predictions,
21
avalanche and mountain hazards in general,
22
14 See Ehrlich, Paul R.; Holdren, John P. (1971). “Impact of Population Growth”. Science.
American Association for the Advancement of Science. 171 (3977): 1212–1217. Bibcode:1971Sci
171.1212E. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.171.3977.1212. JSTOR 1731166. PMID 5545198.
See also, “The Tragedy of the Commons,” by Garrertt Hardin, Science 13 Dec 1968: Vol. 162,
Issue 3859, pp. 1243–1248, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.162.3859.1243, https://science.sciencemag.org/content/162/3859/1243, Accessed May 14, 2020.
15 See “Japan’s Unknown Ecological Tragedy,” by M.C.Tobias, Forbes, March 17, 2011, https://
w w w. f o r b e s . c o m / s i t e s / m i c h a e l t o b i a s / 2 0 1 1 / 0 3 / 1 7 / j a p a n s - u n kow n - e c o l o g i c a l -
tragedy/#64936150269b; See also, “Japan’s Tragedy: Global Ecological Uncertainty,” by
M.C.Tobias, Forbes, March 13, 2011, https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeltobias/2011/03/13/
japans-tragedy-global-ecological-uncertainty/#2b8c1d728e30
16 See “Environmental Security: Sensing the World in 4-D,” by M.C.Tobias, Forbes, January 31,
2012, https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeltobias/2012/01/31/environmental-security-sensingthe-world-in-4-d/#73ab9c594d3a
17 See “The Space Shuttle Challenger Explosion and the O-ring,” by Nemil Dalal, Priceonomics,
https://priceonomics.com/the-space-shuttle-challenger-explosion-and-the-o/n.d, Accessed May
14, 2020.
18 See “Seismic Risk Assessment Using Stochastic Nonlinear Models,” by Yeudy F. Vargas-Alzate,
Nieves Lantada, and Ramón González-Drigo, and Luis G. Pujades, Sustainability 2020 12(4),
1308; https://doi.org/10.3390/su12041308, February 11, 2020, https://www.mdpi.com/20711050/12/4/1308, Accessed May 14, 2020.
19 See “ETA-Based Mos Probability Of Precipitation (PoP) And Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
(QPF) Guidance For The Continental United States,” by Joseph C. Maloney: “…categorical forecasts are no post-processed and inconsistent forecasts can result…” p. 6, https://www.weather.gov/
media/mdl/487.pdf
20 See National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center, https://www.nhc.noaa.
gov/. Accessed May 14, 2020
21 See “Severe weather prediction,” by ECMWF (The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather
Forecasts), https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/who-we-are.
22 See “Reducing Uncertainty in Hazard Prediction,” by Karim Riley, Matt Thompson, Peter
Webley, and Kevin Hyde, April 28, 2017, Eos, Science News by AGU, Editors’ Vox, https://eos.
org/editors-vox/reducing-uncertainty-in-hazard-prediction, Accessed May 14, 2020.
52.1 Navigating a World of Chance and Uncertainty