109
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021
M. C. Tobias, J. G. Morrison, On the Nature of Ecological Paradox,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-64526-7_12
Chapter 12
The Paradise Paradox
12.1 Statistical Islands and Mainlands
Bayesian inference (from the Reverend Thomas Bayes, 1701?–1761) takes unknown
variables to calculate a range of future prospects—equations counting on a high
chance of likelihood, thereby granting the ingredients of any algorithm a level of
confidence. Its contingent propositions of prior distributions and near-predictions of
the future are mathematically among the most interesting of all decision theory
related statistical probability functions. It would allow one to have quietly determine well in advance a maximum a posteriori estimation (MAP),
1
a point estimate.
Perhaps something as obscure as German firefighters rescuing a plump rat that
trapped itself in a sewage drain and was crying out for help—one of the very few
Rattus genus individuals favored, out of an estimated 7 billion rats across the planet.
2
Or, the statistical flash points concerning those few short-wooled little black wild
sheep first translocated to Litla Dimun (Dímunarseyðurin), one of 18 main islands
in the Faroes. For centuries, these kindly occupants of the North Atlantic lived in
their very own exquisite paradise. The 1358 ft summit of Mt. Slættirnir is perpetually wrapped in cloud, and the native grasses and wildflowers along its gentle slopes
provide deeply buffered sinkholes of soft biomass in which to sleep and graze above
the sheer cliffs. The total of 203 inaccessible acres always made for the perfect
hideaway from the rest of the world. Until islanders from “abroad” (the villagers of
Hvalba and Sandvík) would row across each Autumn to chase the Soay-like wild
breed of sheep and carry them off to be exploited on other larger islands among the
Faroes. Those sheep that could escape were often, inexplicably, shot. They had few
places to which to run.
1 https://www.probabilitycourse.com/chapter9/9_1_2_MAP_estimation.php, Accessed February
27, 2019.
2 “Firefighters Rescue Fat Rat From Trapped Sewer,” https://www.wfla.com/news/viral-news/firefighters-rescue-fat-rat-from-trapped-sewer/1814247342, Accessed March 1, 2019.
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021
M. C. Tobias, J. G. Morrison, On the Nature of Ecological Paradox,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-64526-7_12
Chapter 12
The Paradise Paradox
12.1 Statistical Islands and Mainlands
Bayesian inference (from the Reverend Thomas Bayes, 1701?–1761) takes unknown
variables to calculate a range of future prospects—equations counting on a high
chance of likelihood, thereby granting the ingredients of any algorithm a level of
confidence. Its contingent propositions of prior distributions and near-predictions of
the future are mathematically among the most interesting of all decision theory
related statistical probability functions. It would allow one to have quietly determine well in advance a maximum a posteriori estimation (MAP),
1
a point estimate.
Perhaps something as obscure as German firefighters rescuing a plump rat that
trapped itself in a sewage drain and was crying out for help—one of the very few
Rattus genus individuals favored, out of an estimated 7 billion rats across the planet.
2
Or, the statistical flash points concerning those few short-wooled little black wild
sheep first translocated to Litla Dimun (Dímunarseyðurin), one of 18 main islands
in the Faroes. For centuries, these kindly occupants of the North Atlantic lived in
their very own exquisite paradise. The 1358 ft summit of Mt. Slættirnir is perpetually wrapped in cloud, and the native grasses and wildflowers along its gentle slopes
provide deeply buffered sinkholes of soft biomass in which to sleep and graze above
the sheer cliffs. The total of 203 inaccessible acres always made for the perfect
hideaway from the rest of the world. Until islanders from “abroad” (the villagers of
Hvalba and Sandvík) would row across each Autumn to chase the Soay-like wild
breed of sheep and carry them off to be exploited on other larger islands among the
Faroes. Those sheep that could escape were often, inexplicably, shot. They had few
places to which to run.
1 https://www.probabilitycourse.com/chapter9/9_1_2_MAP_estimation.php, Accessed February
27, 2019.
2 “Firefighters Rescue Fat Rat From Trapped Sewer,” https://www.wfla.com/news/viral-news/firefighters-rescue-fat-rat-from-trapped-sewer/1814247342, Accessed March 1, 2019.