188
8
et al. (2014), Buhaug et al. (2015), von Uexkull et al. (2016), and Koubi (2019),
although with a minority among quantitative studies arguing for a stronger causal
association (Hsiang et al. 2013). In a study based on views among mostly quantitative scholars, Mach et al. (2019) found considerable agreement that state capacity
and level of socioeconomic development generally represent the main causes of
conflicts. But they also agreed that climate variability and change may play a secondary role in influencing the risk of organized armed conflict within countries.
Generally, the scarcity narrative is logical and it is easy to imagine how scarcity
of resources may lead to conflicts. This means that, intuitively, the imagined strong
connection between scarcity and conflict makes sense, which can partly explain the
power and attraction of this idea. It continues to hold a strong position among
policy makers as well as in the media despite most quantitative and qualitative
studies questioning such a strong causal connection. It is also interesting to note
that Elinor Ostrom received the Nobel Prize in economics in 2009 for three decades
of empirical research demonstrating how scarce resources may actually lead to
cooperation rather than conflict among resource users under certain conditions
(Ostrom 1990, 2005).
Climatic and Environmental Change in the Sahel
There has historically been long term, medium term and short-term climatic variations in the Sahel. During a period from 30,000 to 20,000 B.C.E., the Sahara was
humid with large lakes, while in the period 20,000 to 12,000 B.C.E., it was much
drier. Thereafter, there was another humid period from around 12,000 to 4000
B.C.E., with lakes in the Sahara and with vegetation that today is found near the
Mediterranean, before desiccation gradually took place again (Nicholson 1989).
In addition to these long-term dry and wet periods that have been of importance
to how large the desert has been historically, there have also been swings in rainfall
during medium-range periods. Nicholson (1989) identified different such dry and
wet medium-range periods since the ninth century. In more modern times, both oral
tradition and written sources testify to the fact that there have been several drought
periods since the seventeenth century (Webb 1995). In other words, droughts have
always occurred from time to time in the Sahel, and droughts may be seen as part of
the region’s climatic system.
Medium-range variations in rainfall can be traced using earlier descriptions of
the natural vegetation and of what people planted. After Columbus’s journey to
America, maize was brought from the ‘New World’ to Europe and from there to
West Africa in the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries. In the beginning of the eighteenth century, it was reported that maize had become the dominant cultivated plant
along the Senegal River. However, around 1750, agriculture along this river consisted of a mixture of maize, millet and sorghum, and around 1850, millet and sorChapter 8 · Climate Change, Scarcity and Conflicts in the Sahel
8
et al. (2014), Buhaug et al. (2015), von Uexkull et al. (2016), and Koubi (2019),
although with a minority among quantitative studies arguing for a stronger causal
association (Hsiang et al. 2013). In a study based on views among mostly quantitative scholars, Mach et al. (2019) found considerable agreement that state capacity
and level of socioeconomic development generally represent the main causes of
conflicts. But they also agreed that climate variability and change may play a secondary role in influencing the risk of organized armed conflict within countries.
Generally, the scarcity narrative is logical and it is easy to imagine how scarcity
of resources may lead to conflicts. This means that, intuitively, the imagined strong
connection between scarcity and conflict makes sense, which can partly explain the
power and attraction of this idea. It continues to hold a strong position among
policy makers as well as in the media despite most quantitative and qualitative
studies questioning such a strong causal connection. It is also interesting to note
that Elinor Ostrom received the Nobel Prize in economics in 2009 for three decades
of empirical research demonstrating how scarce resources may actually lead to
cooperation rather than conflict among resource users under certain conditions
(Ostrom 1990, 2005).
Climatic and Environmental Change in the Sahel
There has historically been long term, medium term and short-term climatic variations in the Sahel. During a period from 30,000 to 20,000 B.C.E., the Sahara was
humid with large lakes, while in the period 20,000 to 12,000 B.C.E., it was much
drier. Thereafter, there was another humid period from around 12,000 to 4000
B.C.E., with lakes in the Sahara and with vegetation that today is found near the
Mediterranean, before desiccation gradually took place again (Nicholson 1989).
In addition to these long-term dry and wet periods that have been of importance
to how large the desert has been historically, there have also been swings in rainfall
during medium-range periods. Nicholson (1989) identified different such dry and
wet medium-range periods since the ninth century. In more modern times, both oral
tradition and written sources testify to the fact that there have been several drought
periods since the seventeenth century (Webb 1995). In other words, droughts have
always occurred from time to time in the Sahel, and droughts may be seen as part of
the region’s climatic system.
Medium-range variations in rainfall can be traced using earlier descriptions of
the natural vegetation and of what people planted. After Columbus’s journey to
America, maize was brought from the ‘New World’ to Europe and from there to
West Africa in the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries. In the beginning of the eighteenth century, it was reported that maize had become the dominant cultivated plant
along the Senegal River. However, around 1750, agriculture along this river consisted of a mixture of maize, millet and sorghum, and around 1850, millet and sorChapter 8 · Climate Change, Scarcity and Conflicts in the Sahel