Figure 2. Growth rate of GDP and Electricity Consumption
(2008–2018). Source: Author’s analysis based on data from
World Bank and ERA, 2020.
Figure 3. Normality test.
Table 2. Cointegration test.
D log GDP
Variable
Coef
Std.Error
P-value
Log GDP
L1.
0.13
0.818
0.25
LR GDP
Lag1.LGDP.
−0.165
0.161
−0.13
Lag2 d. LGD
−0.044
0.600
−0.73
Log elec
Lag lelec 1.
0.017
0.13
0.894
Lag2 lelec.
0.175
0.06
0.03
Log cap
Lag lCap.
0.03
0.19
0.87
Lag12 LCap
−0.19
0.21
0.36
Lag2 lCap
−0.20
0.21
0.35
Table 3. Vector error correction mechanism.
Coeff
Std. error
P-value
Logelec
L1.
0.06
0.02
0.01
LR
Lag Lelec 1.
0.34
0.12
0.06
LagLelec 2.
0.01
0.01
0.34
LagLelec3.
0.01
0.54
D.log GDP (LY)
LD.
0.59
0.23
0.01
Lag LY1
0.53
0.19
0.01
Lag LY2
0.11
–1088
Lag LY3
0.38
0.19
0.04
Lncap
Lag Lcap
0.15
0.13
0.25
Table 4. Granger causality.
Null Hypothesis:
F-Stat
Prob.
LNELEC does not Granger Cause
LNCAP
5.32192 0.0041
LNCAP does not Granger Cause
LNELEC
0.22687 0.8770
LNGDP does not Granger Cause
LNCAP
1.41890 0.2542
LNCAP does not Granger Cause
LNGDP
0.63778 0.5959
LNLAB does not Granger Cause
LNCAP
0.82253 0.4906
LNCAP does not Granger Cause
LNLAB
0.39181 0.7597
LNGDP does not Granger Cause
LNELEC
3.88549 0.0172
LNELEC does not Granger Cause
LNGDP
3.43835 0.0275
LNLAB does not Granger Cause
LNEEC
0.37452 0.7719
LNELEC does not Granger Cause
LNLAB
0.23738 0.8697
LNLAB does not Granger Cause
LNGDP
3.85600 0.0178
LNGDP does not Granger Cause
LNLAB
0.27577 0.8425
Table 5a. ADF test for stationarity at first difference for
log of electricity consumption.
Test critical values
t-statistic
P-value
–15.24945
0.0000
1% level
–3.610453
5% level
–2.938987
10% level
–2.607932
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