programme of observational method tradeoffs,
experimental trials, technological investment, and
then sustained system evolution. No organization
has emerged capable of doing these things.
WOCE itself has shown that, through the coalition of the academics, government laboratories,
etc. that make up the worldwide oceanographic
community, combined with modern oceanic observation and modelling technologies, the elements of
a practical system already exist. This system could
provide what is required, if it can be sustained and
ultimately augmented. The existing system involves
measurements from satellites, in-situ unmanned
instruments such as profiling drifters, tomographic
integrals, and long Eulerian time series, plus a
judicious mix of shipboard measurements, all carefully carried out so as to evade the dominant aliasing effects of the variability. The modelling
advances that have taken place over the past
15 years suggest that the combination of clever
fluid dynamics and numerical methods, increased
computing power, and the comparatively modest
resources required to sustain such efforts would
over the next 10–20 years become consistent with
the need for fully describing the changing fluid.
But the community that put together the
WOCE coalition is too small, too dependent upon
year-to-year funding, too focused upon basic scientific issues, to sustain the required observations
in the necessary open-ended fashion. If one seeks
seriously to account properly for the ocean and its
role in climate, special consideration must be given
to maintaining the observation programme without destroying the underlying scientific community. Probably the central issue is that there are no
operational agencies anywhere in the world that
carry out large-scale systematic oceanic observations
analogous to those represented in the World
Weather Watch.
3 If oceanic climate issues are to
be understood, the small oceanographic community will need resources, and probably the active
assistance, of some operational agency or agencies
to marshall the resources for an ongoing system
capable of addressing the major issues.
This last statement is not a trivial one. Perhaps
the greatest climate puzzle is whether one can find
a way to study its ‘slow physics’ (and chemistry
and biology) within funding systems based upon
year-to-year budgets, high-frequency elections,
short tenure deadlines, and the general wish for
scientific results in the short term. Understanding
the ocean in climate is surely a multi-decadal problem, at best. The observations and science required
to solve it are fairly clear. What is less clear is
whether we have the collective will, internationally, to produce the necessary effort.
It is, of course, possible to proceed by simply
asserting that the historical paradigm remains
valid. This assumption is enormously simplifying,
and greatly reduces the costs and complexity of
future climate programmes (see Table 2.1.1). Such
a course is very appealing from many points of
view, but seems dangerous to the ultimate understanding of climate should the assumption prove,
as seems likely, false.
Acknowledgements
The comments of the reviewers and editors were
very helpful. This work was supported in part by
the National Science Foundation under Grant
9525945 and the National Aeronautics and Space
Administration under Grant NAG5-2734. Contribution to the World Ocean Circulation Experiment.
SECTION 2 OBSERVATIONS AND MODELS
58
3 Space agencies sometimes give the impression of being ‘operational’ agencies, simply because the planning and flight of
spacecraft takes so long. But one of the great ironies of the US/France TOPEX/POSEIDON mission is that it has led the US
National Aeronautics and Space Administration to declare its role in satellite altimetry to be near its end, and to seek
actively to cease any further such measurements. The argument continues.
experimental trials, technological investment, and
then sustained system evolution. No organization
has emerged capable of doing these things.
WOCE itself has shown that, through the coalition of the academics, government laboratories,
etc. that make up the worldwide oceanographic
community, combined with modern oceanic observation and modelling technologies, the elements of
a practical system already exist. This system could
provide what is required, if it can be sustained and
ultimately augmented. The existing system involves
measurements from satellites, in-situ unmanned
instruments such as profiling drifters, tomographic
integrals, and long Eulerian time series, plus a
judicious mix of shipboard measurements, all carefully carried out so as to evade the dominant aliasing effects of the variability. The modelling
advances that have taken place over the past
15 years suggest that the combination of clever
fluid dynamics and numerical methods, increased
computing power, and the comparatively modest
resources required to sustain such efforts would
over the next 10–20 years become consistent with
the need for fully describing the changing fluid.
But the community that put together the
WOCE coalition is too small, too dependent upon
year-to-year funding, too focused upon basic scientific issues, to sustain the required observations
in the necessary open-ended fashion. If one seeks
seriously to account properly for the ocean and its
role in climate, special consideration must be given
to maintaining the observation programme without destroying the underlying scientific community. Probably the central issue is that there are no
operational agencies anywhere in the world that
carry out large-scale systematic oceanic observations
analogous to those represented in the World
Weather Watch.
3 If oceanic climate issues are to
be understood, the small oceanographic community will need resources, and probably the active
assistance, of some operational agency or agencies
to marshall the resources for an ongoing system
capable of addressing the major issues.
This last statement is not a trivial one. Perhaps
the greatest climate puzzle is whether one can find
a way to study its ‘slow physics’ (and chemistry
and biology) within funding systems based upon
year-to-year budgets, high-frequency elections,
short tenure deadlines, and the general wish for
scientific results in the short term. Understanding
the ocean in climate is surely a multi-decadal problem, at best. The observations and science required
to solve it are fairly clear. What is less clear is
whether we have the collective will, internationally, to produce the necessary effort.
It is, of course, possible to proceed by simply
asserting that the historical paradigm remains
valid. This assumption is enormously simplifying,
and greatly reduces the costs and complexity of
future climate programmes (see Table 2.1.1). Such
a course is very appealing from many points of
view, but seems dangerous to the ultimate understanding of climate should the assumption prove,
as seems likely, false.
Acknowledgements
The comments of the reviewers and editors were
very helpful. This work was supported in part by
the National Science Foundation under Grant
9525945 and the National Aeronautics and Space
Administration under Grant NAG5-2734. Contribution to the World Ocean Circulation Experiment.
SECTION 2 OBSERVATIONS AND MODELS
58
3 Space agencies sometimes give the impression of being ‘operational’ agencies, simply because the planning and flight of
spacecraft takes so long. But one of the great ironies of the US/France TOPEX/POSEIDON mission is that it has led the US
National Aeronautics and Space Administration to declare its role in satellite altimetry to be near its end, and to seek
actively to cease any further such measurements. The argument continues.