WOCE has meant for the development of a global
ocean observing system, operational oceanography
and for the development of enhanced capabilities
for ocean and climate prediction.
7.4.2 Building from WOCE
The nature of ocean and climate problems and
their intrinsic large (global) scales has meant that
international cooperation and collaboration has
become an essential aspect of the science. The
International Geophysical Year (in 1958), the
International Decade of Ocean Exploration, and
the First Global Experiment of the Global Atmospheric Research Programme provide examples
where the community worked together to tackle
problems that were beyond the capacity of individuals or small groups. The Tropical Oceans-Global
Atmosphere Experiment (TOGA, 1985) is a modern example of ‘programme science’ whereby the
combined efforts of many researchers and research
groups were able to advance our knowledge of climate variability, particularly El Niño, and develop
methods and systems of practical importance.
TOGA is widely judged as having been a successful
experiment (WCRP, 1995a). By the end of 1994,
experimental and operational El Niño forecast systems existed (Anderson et al., 2001) and moves
were underway to sustain the important elements
of the TOGA observing system and, in particular,
the TOGA (now Tropical) Atmosphere–Ocean
array (TAO) (McPhaden, 1995; McPhaden et al.,
1998). The latter has in fact taken rather longer
than expected, not because of doubts in the scientific value, but because there was little experience
in transitioning experimental ocean observing systems to long-term sustained (operational) support
and little in the way of established operational
funding and infrastructure mechanisms.
The WOCE observation programme began
mid-way through TOGA and immediately the community recognized the synergy between the observational strategies of WOCE and TOGA. This
recognition manifested as joint management and
implementation of several elements including the
expendable bathythermograph (XBT) network, sealevel sites and the surface drifter velocity programme. Through this same period, efforts were
initiated to develop a plan for a more permanent
observing system in support of climate. The planning of the Ocean Observing System Development
Panel (1995) grew mainly from within the WOCE
community but accepted the broader mandate to
develop a general conceptual plan for climate observations within the framework of GOOS and the
Global Climate Observing System, including climate aspects of the carbon cycle.
With the publication of the Ocean Observing
System Development Panel (1995) Report, the
focus shifted toward the realities of implementation. Within GOOS, the so-called Climate Module
(or, equivalently, the ocean component of the
Global Climate Observing System) was the vehicle
within which plans for implementation of an
ocean observing system for climate were developed
(see, for example, the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission/ World Meteorological Organization, 1999). In a scientific volume such as this,
many would query the usefulness of introducing
such programmatic aspects, yet, as will become
evident in later sections, it is these very developments that are critical for the proper exploitation
of the legacy of WOCE. The business community
speaks of short- and long-term returns on investment. Such a concept applies equally here. WOCE
itself, though a major undertaking, must be treated
as a finite, relatively short-period investment of
resources and effort. The research outcomes from
WOCE, such as the advances in scientific knowledge and technical capability detailed in this volume, constitute the short-term return. It is through
the development of appropriate institutions and
sustained infrastructure that we can assure commensurate long-term returns.
CLIVAR was in the first instance a reaction to the
success of TOGA and the need to build upon this
scientific momentum. It was also an attempt to
develop a more general, global basis for climate
research and climate prediction and to provide a
coherent, general framework for the post-WOCE
period and the approach to research of the physical
climate system. As noted in Section 7.4.1, the outcomes from Goal 2 of WOCE provide a significant
underpinning for the climate research of CLIVAR.
For the purposes of this discussion CLIVAR can be
viewed as a research programme with interests in
time scales ranging from the intraseasonal through
to decadal and centennial, including climate change.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon
(ENSO) is arguably the climate mode that is of dominant interest to CLIVAR, though others might
argue that climate change, in the long term, is of
SECTION 7 INSIGHTS FOR THE FUTURE
588
ocean observing system, operational oceanography
and for the development of enhanced capabilities
for ocean and climate prediction.
7.4.2 Building from WOCE
The nature of ocean and climate problems and
their intrinsic large (global) scales has meant that
international cooperation and collaboration has
become an essential aspect of the science. The
International Geophysical Year (in 1958), the
International Decade of Ocean Exploration, and
the First Global Experiment of the Global Atmospheric Research Programme provide examples
where the community worked together to tackle
problems that were beyond the capacity of individuals or small groups. The Tropical Oceans-Global
Atmosphere Experiment (TOGA, 1985) is a modern example of ‘programme science’ whereby the
combined efforts of many researchers and research
groups were able to advance our knowledge of climate variability, particularly El Niño, and develop
methods and systems of practical importance.
TOGA is widely judged as having been a successful
experiment (WCRP, 1995a). By the end of 1994,
experimental and operational El Niño forecast systems existed (Anderson et al., 2001) and moves
were underway to sustain the important elements
of the TOGA observing system and, in particular,
the TOGA (now Tropical) Atmosphere–Ocean
array (TAO) (McPhaden, 1995; McPhaden et al.,
1998). The latter has in fact taken rather longer
than expected, not because of doubts in the scientific value, but because there was little experience
in transitioning experimental ocean observing systems to long-term sustained (operational) support
and little in the way of established operational
funding and infrastructure mechanisms.
The WOCE observation programme began
mid-way through TOGA and immediately the community recognized the synergy between the observational strategies of WOCE and TOGA. This
recognition manifested as joint management and
implementation of several elements including the
expendable bathythermograph (XBT) network, sealevel sites and the surface drifter velocity programme. Through this same period, efforts were
initiated to develop a plan for a more permanent
observing system in support of climate. The planning of the Ocean Observing System Development
Panel (1995) grew mainly from within the WOCE
community but accepted the broader mandate to
develop a general conceptual plan for climate observations within the framework of GOOS and the
Global Climate Observing System, including climate aspects of the carbon cycle.
With the publication of the Ocean Observing
System Development Panel (1995) Report, the
focus shifted toward the realities of implementation. Within GOOS, the so-called Climate Module
(or, equivalently, the ocean component of the
Global Climate Observing System) was the vehicle
within which plans for implementation of an
ocean observing system for climate were developed
(see, for example, the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission/ World Meteorological Organization, 1999). In a scientific volume such as this,
many would query the usefulness of introducing
such programmatic aspects, yet, as will become
evident in later sections, it is these very developments that are critical for the proper exploitation
of the legacy of WOCE. The business community
speaks of short- and long-term returns on investment. Such a concept applies equally here. WOCE
itself, though a major undertaking, must be treated
as a finite, relatively short-period investment of
resources and effort. The research outcomes from
WOCE, such as the advances in scientific knowledge and technical capability detailed in this volume, constitute the short-term return. It is through
the development of appropriate institutions and
sustained infrastructure that we can assure commensurate long-term returns.
CLIVAR was in the first instance a reaction to the
success of TOGA and the need to build upon this
scientific momentum. It was also an attempt to
develop a more general, global basis for climate
research and climate prediction and to provide a
coherent, general framework for the post-WOCE
period and the approach to research of the physical
climate system. As noted in Section 7.4.1, the outcomes from Goal 2 of WOCE provide a significant
underpinning for the climate research of CLIVAR.
For the purposes of this discussion CLIVAR can be
viewed as a research programme with interests in
time scales ranging from the intraseasonal through
to decadal and centennial, including climate change.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon
(ENSO) is arguably the climate mode that is of dominant interest to CLIVAR, though others might
argue that climate change, in the long term, is of
SECTION 7 INSIGHTS FOR THE FUTURE
588