of this circulation, the construction of the LPS subduction theory, required many decades of concerted effort. The subduction theory has been
remarkably fruitful for almost 20 years now and, if
anything, the pace of research on time-dependent
phenomenon has quickened with the availability of
comprehensive air and sea climatologies.
The new WOCE data sets, and particularly the
basin-scale surveys that are strongly reminiscent of
the Meteor expedition, will undoubtedly help us to
define the shortcomings of present, idealized thermocline models. In this respect the WOCE field
effort may some day appear to have been the
observational stage that began only the second (or
third?) major cycle of ocean science research. The
analysis stage of this new cycle is only beginning
and no one could foretell what new proof may
emerge in the next 10–20 years. More comprehensive and more realistic models of the thermocline
and upper ocean circulation seem bound to follow,
if only because present models are so lean.
Acknowledgements
The author was supported by the US Office of
Naval Research and by the National Science Foundation Grant No. OCE94-01300 during the time
of manuscript preparation. Thanks to Zhengyu
Liu, Rui Xin Huang and Mike Spall and for allowing the use of their unpublished manuscripts, and
to the editors and referees for helpful comments
on the draft manuscript.
5.3 Subduction
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Price