6
8
Sea Level /m
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
Year
Observations
Scenarios
Figure 3 Sea level at New
York City from 1850 to
2100. Relative sea-level rise
observations combined
with relative sea-level rise
scenarios derived from
Church et al. The
straight dashed line shows
the observed trend during
the 20th century
Other Climate Change
Other aspects of coastal climate are likely to change under global warming with
many adverse and some beneficial effects (Table 1). The influence of climate
change on the long-term tracks, intensity and frequency of coastal storms is of
widespread concern due to the high impact potential. This factor receives
considerable attention and erroneous comments about the certainty of an
increase in storminess under global warming are also common. Given the high
interannual and interdecadal variability of storm occurrence it may be
difficult to discern any long-term changes from natural variability. In this regard,
new measurement techniques may be helpful.
Following the uncertainties about other climate change factors, the main focus
of most assessments has been the impacts and responses to sea-level rise. This
article follows a similar approach.
3 Impact and Vulnerability Assessment of Sea-level Rise
Impact assessment provides important insights into a coastal system’s vulnerability
to sea-level rise and climate. In general terms, vulnerability is ‘the degree to which
a system is susceptible to injury, damage, or harm’ from whatever cause, and is a
product of a system’s sensitivity and adaptive capacity to the stress. Vulnerability
A. B. Pittock and R. A. Flather, Severe tropical storms and storm surges, in R. A. Warrick, E. M.
Barrow and T. M. L. Wigley (eds.), Climate Change and Sea Level Change: Observations,
Projections and Implications, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1993, pp. 393—394.
R. A. Warrick, K. L. McInnes, A. B. Pittock and P. S. Kench, Climate change, severe storms and
sea level: implications for the coast, in D. J. Parker (ed.), Floods, Volume 2, Routledge, London,
2000, pp. 130—147.
WASA Group, Changing waves and storms in the Northeast Atlantic, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 79,
1998, 741—760.
K. Zhang, B. C. Douglas and S. P. Leatherman, Twentieth-century storm activity along the US
east coast, J. Clim., 2000, 13, 1748—1761.
I. Grevemeyer, R. Herber and H.-H. Essen, Microseismological evidence for a changing wave
climate in the northeast Atlantic Ocean, Nature, 2000, 408, 349—352.
Rising Sea Levels: Potential Impacts and Responses
89
8
Sea Level /m
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
Year
Observations
Scenarios
Figure 3 Sea level at New
York City from 1850 to
2100. Relative sea-level rise
observations combined
with relative sea-level rise
scenarios derived from
Church et al. The
straight dashed line shows
the observed trend during
the 20th century
Other Climate Change
Other aspects of coastal climate are likely to change under global warming with
many adverse and some beneficial effects (Table 1). The influence of climate
change on the long-term tracks, intensity and frequency of coastal storms is of
widespread concern due to the high impact potential. This factor receives
considerable attention and erroneous comments about the certainty of an
increase in storminess under global warming are also common. Given the high
interannual and interdecadal variability of storm occurrence it may be
difficult to discern any long-term changes from natural variability. In this regard,
new measurement techniques may be helpful.
Following the uncertainties about other climate change factors, the main focus
of most assessments has been the impacts and responses to sea-level rise. This
article follows a similar approach.
3 Impact and Vulnerability Assessment of Sea-level Rise
Impact assessment provides important insights into a coastal system’s vulnerability
to sea-level rise and climate. In general terms, vulnerability is ‘the degree to which
a system is susceptible to injury, damage, or harm’ from whatever cause, and is a
product of a system’s sensitivity and adaptive capacity to the stress. Vulnerability
A. B. Pittock and R. A. Flather, Severe tropical storms and storm surges, in R. A. Warrick, E. M.
Barrow and T. M. L. Wigley (eds.), Climate Change and Sea Level Change: Observations,
Projections and Implications, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1993, pp. 393—394.
R. A. Warrick, K. L. McInnes, A. B. Pittock and P. S. Kench, Climate change, severe storms and
sea level: implications for the coast, in D. J. Parker (ed.), Floods, Volume 2, Routledge, London,
2000, pp. 130—147.
WASA Group, Changing waves and storms in the Northeast Atlantic, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 79,
1998, 741—760.
K. Zhang, B. C. Douglas and S. P. Leatherman, Twentieth-century storm activity along the US
east coast, J. Clim., 2000, 13, 1748—1761.
I. Grevemeyer, R. Herber and H.-H. Essen, Microseismological evidence for a changing wave
climate in the northeast Atlantic Ocean, Nature, 2000, 408, 349—352.
Rising Sea Levels: Potential Impacts and Responses
89