Cereal Prices
Additional People at Risk of Hunger
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
CC
CC + AD1
CC + AD2
% Change
GISS GFDL UKMO
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
CC
CC + AD1
CC + AD2
Millions of Additional People
GISS GFDL UKMO
Figure 5 Change in cereal
prices and people at risk of
hunger for climate change
scenarios (CC) and with
Adaptation Levels 1 and 2
(AD1 and AD2)
change are slightly reduced under most climatic scenarios, with enhanced gains in
production occurring in developed countries but losses in production being
greater in developing countries. Price increases are reduced slightly from what
would occur without full trade liberalization and the number of people at risk
from hunger is reduced by about 100 million.
Reduced rate of economic growth. Estimates were also made of impacts under a
lower economic growth scenario (10% lower than reference). Lower economic
growth results in a tighter supply situation, higher prices and more people below
the hunger threshold. Prices are 10% higher and the number of people at risk
from hunger is 20% greater. The effect of climate change on these trends is
generally to reduce production, increase prices and increase the number of people
at risk from hunger by the same ratio as is the case with a higher economic growth
rate, but the absolute amounts of change are greater.
Altered rates of population growth. The largest impact of any of the policies
considered would result from an accelerated reduction in population growth in
M. Parry and M. Livermore
122
Additional People at Risk of Hunger
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
CC
CC + AD1
CC + AD2
% Change
GISS GFDL UKMO
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
CC
CC + AD1
CC + AD2
Millions of Additional People
GISS GFDL UKMO
Figure 5 Change in cereal
prices and people at risk of
hunger for climate change
scenarios (CC) and with
Adaptation Levels 1 and 2
(AD1 and AD2)
change are slightly reduced under most climatic scenarios, with enhanced gains in
production occurring in developed countries but losses in production being
greater in developing countries. Price increases are reduced slightly from what
would occur without full trade liberalization and the number of people at risk
from hunger is reduced by about 100 million.
Reduced rate of economic growth. Estimates were also made of impacts under a
lower economic growth scenario (10% lower than reference). Lower economic
growth results in a tighter supply situation, higher prices and more people below
the hunger threshold. Prices are 10% higher and the number of people at risk
from hunger is 20% greater. The effect of climate change on these trends is
generally to reduce production, increase prices and increase the number of people
at risk from hunger by the same ratio as is the case with a higher economic growth
rate, but the absolute amounts of change are greater.
Altered rates of population growth. The largest impact of any of the policies
considered would result from an accelerated reduction in population growth in
M. Parry and M. Livermore
122