Climate Change, Global Food Supply and
Risk of Hunger
MARTIN P ARRY AND MATTHEW LIVERMORE
1 Introduction
In this article we review a number of studies of the possible effects of climate
change on global agricultural yield potential, on cereal production, food prices
and the implications for changes in the number of hungry people. At present,
almost 800 million people in the developing world are estimated to be to
experiencing some form of shortage in food supply. In general, the conclusion
from recent research has been that, while one may be reasonably optimistic about
the prospects of adapting the agricultural production system to the early stages of
global warming, the distribution of the vulnerability among the regions and
people is likely to be uneven. Where crops are near their maximum temperature
tolerance and where dryland, non-irrigated agriculture predominates, yields are
likely to decrease with even small amounts of climate change. The livelihoods of
subsistence farmers and pastoral people, who are already weakly coupled to
markets, could also be negatively affected. In regions where there is a likelihood of
decreased rainfall, agriculture could be substantially affected regardless of latitude.
Clearly, in addition to the above generality on productivity, other features of
agricultural vulnerability are likely to vary widely among people, regions, nations
and continents. The poor, especially those living in marginal environments, will
be most vulnerable to climate-induced food insecurity. By the 2080s, the
additional number of people at risk of hunger due to climate change is estimated
to be about 80 million. However, some regions (particularly in the arid and
sub-humid tropics) may be affected more. Africa is projected to experience
marked reductions in yield, decreases in production and increases in the risk of
hunger as a result of climate change. Recent studies suggest that the continent
FAO, 1999. The State of Food Insecurity in the World, United Nations Food and Agriculture
Organization, Rome, 1999.
IPCC, Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability — Contribution of Working
Group II to the IPCC Third Assessment, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2001.
M. L. Parry, C. Rosenzweig, A. Iglesias, G. Fischer and M. T. J. Livermore, The impact of climate
change on food supply, in Climate Change and Its Impacts: A Global Perspective, Department of the
Environment, Transport and the Regions/UK Meteorological Office, 1997, pp. 12—13.
Issues in Environmental Science and Technology, No. 17
Global Environmental Change
© The Royal Society of Chemistry, 2002
109
Risk of Hunger
MARTIN P ARRY AND MATTHEW LIVERMORE
1 Introduction
In this article we review a number of studies of the possible effects of climate
change on global agricultural yield potential, on cereal production, food prices
and the implications for changes in the number of hungry people. At present,
almost 800 million people in the developing world are estimated to be to
experiencing some form of shortage in food supply. In general, the conclusion
from recent research has been that, while one may be reasonably optimistic about
the prospects of adapting the agricultural production system to the early stages of
global warming, the distribution of the vulnerability among the regions and
people is likely to be uneven. Where crops are near their maximum temperature
tolerance and where dryland, non-irrigated agriculture predominates, yields are
likely to decrease with even small amounts of climate change. The livelihoods of
subsistence farmers and pastoral people, who are already weakly coupled to
markets, could also be negatively affected. In regions where there is a likelihood of
decreased rainfall, agriculture could be substantially affected regardless of latitude.
Clearly, in addition to the above generality on productivity, other features of
agricultural vulnerability are likely to vary widely among people, regions, nations
and continents. The poor, especially those living in marginal environments, will
be most vulnerable to climate-induced food insecurity. By the 2080s, the
additional number of people at risk of hunger due to climate change is estimated
to be about 80 million. However, some regions (particularly in the arid and
sub-humid tropics) may be affected more. Africa is projected to experience
marked reductions in yield, decreases in production and increases in the risk of
hunger as a result of climate change. Recent studies suggest that the continent
FAO, 1999. The State of Food Insecurity in the World, United Nations Food and Agriculture
Organization, Rome, 1999.
IPCC, Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability — Contribution of Working
Group II to the IPCC Third Assessment, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2001.
M. L. Parry, C. Rosenzweig, A. Iglesias, G. Fischer and M. T. J. Livermore, The impact of climate
change on food supply, in Climate Change and Its Impacts: A Global Perspective, Department of the
Environment, Transport and the Regions/UK Meteorological Office, 1997, pp. 12—13.
Issues in Environmental Science and Technology, No. 17
Global Environmental Change
© The Royal Society of Chemistry, 2002
109