socio-economic system (Figure 4), including direct and indirect impacts;
E Consider sub-tidal and inter-tidal changes and impacts (mainly fisheries and
ecosystems), as well as terrestrial changes;
E Identify ‘flagship impacts’ on cultural or natural sites (e.g. Venice, Italy or
the Carmague, France) that are likely to attract public attention to the issue;
E Identify any adaptation measures that should be implemented immediately
and consider the barriers and constraints to adaptation;
E Last, consider the capacity to adapt, which is related to adaptive capacity.
6 Discussion/Conclusions
Human-induced sea-level rise and other climate change may adversely affect
coastal zones around much of the world’s coasts in the 21st century and beyond.
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation) only reduces the magnitude of
these changes and an appropriate combination of mitigation and adaptation
appears to be the best policy response to climate change in coastal areas.
To date, few studies have assessed the impacts of sea-level rise in a realistic
manner, including the potential to adapt. Evaluating adaptation requires a full
understanding of the potential impacts and the adaptive capacity. The latter
factor embraces autonomous adaptation, and (anticipatory and reactive) planned
adaptations. This allows an assessment of the impacts after likely adaptation, and
hence a more realistic view of the vulnerability to sea-level rise. Such analysis
requires a conceptual model of the coastal zone, including recognizing the
interacting natural and socio-economic systems, definition of the different
impacts that might be assessed, recognition of the adaptation process, and a
consistent vulnerability assessment methodology. Given the role of other
non-climate stresses on the impacts of sea-level rise (and climate change), it is also
important that these are considered. The full range of model tools can only be
meaningfully integrated and brought to bear on the problem within this wider
conceptual framework.
While all aspects of vulnerability assessment require further research, the
aspects of integration and adaptation require the most development. The concept
of adaptive capacity has been proposed, and the challenge is to make it
meaningful in the coastal context such that ‘enhancing adaptive capacity’ could
become an operational reality.
Acknowledgements
This article benefits from many collaborations over the years, particularly with
Richard Klein (PIK) and Anne de la Vega-Leinert (PIK), and all the contributors
to the SURVAS Project (http://www.survas.mdx.ac.uk/). The author would like
to acknowledge a Leverhulme Trust Fellowship, which allowed this article to be
prepared.
Rising Sea Levels: Potential Impacts and Responses
107
E Consider sub-tidal and inter-tidal changes and impacts (mainly fisheries and
ecosystems), as well as terrestrial changes;
E Identify ‘flagship impacts’ on cultural or natural sites (e.g. Venice, Italy or
the Carmague, France) that are likely to attract public attention to the issue;
E Identify any adaptation measures that should be implemented immediately
and consider the barriers and constraints to adaptation;
E Last, consider the capacity to adapt, which is related to adaptive capacity.
6 Discussion/Conclusions
Human-induced sea-level rise and other climate change may adversely affect
coastal zones around much of the world’s coasts in the 21st century and beyond.
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation) only reduces the magnitude of
these changes and an appropriate combination of mitigation and adaptation
appears to be the best policy response to climate change in coastal areas.
To date, few studies have assessed the impacts of sea-level rise in a realistic
manner, including the potential to adapt. Evaluating adaptation requires a full
understanding of the potential impacts and the adaptive capacity. The latter
factor embraces autonomous adaptation, and (anticipatory and reactive) planned
adaptations. This allows an assessment of the impacts after likely adaptation, and
hence a more realistic view of the vulnerability to sea-level rise. Such analysis
requires a conceptual model of the coastal zone, including recognizing the
interacting natural and socio-economic systems, definition of the different
impacts that might be assessed, recognition of the adaptation process, and a
consistent vulnerability assessment methodology. Given the role of other
non-climate stresses on the impacts of sea-level rise (and climate change), it is also
important that these are considered. The full range of model tools can only be
meaningfully integrated and brought to bear on the problem within this wider
conceptual framework.
While all aspects of vulnerability assessment require further research, the
aspects of integration and adaptation require the most development. The concept
of adaptive capacity has been proposed, and the challenge is to make it
meaningful in the coastal context such that ‘enhancing adaptive capacity’ could
become an operational reality.
Acknowledgements
This article benefits from many collaborations over the years, particularly with
Richard Klein (PIK) and Anne de la Vega-Leinert (PIK), and all the contributors
to the SURVAS Project (http://www.survas.mdx.ac.uk/). The author would like
to acknowledge a Leverhulme Trust Fellowship, which allowed this article to be
prepared.
Rising Sea Levels: Potential Impacts and Responses
107