NATURAL SYSTEM
SOCIO-ECONOMIC SYSTEM
NON-CLIMATIC
STRESSES
SEA-LEVEL
RISE (AND
OTHER
CLIMATE
CHANGE)
RESIDUAL IMPACTS
SOCIO-ECONOMIC
VULNERABILITY
SOCIO-ECONOMIC
SENSITIVITY
SOCIO-ECONOMIC
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
AUTONOMOUS
ADAPTATION
PLANNED
ADAPTATION
NATURAL
SENSITIVITY
NATURAL
L
ADAPTIVE
CAPACITY
NATURAL
VULNERABILITY
BIOGEOPHYSICAL
EFFECTS
AUTONOMOUS
ADAPTATION
PLANNED
ADAPTATION
Figure 4 A conceptual
framework for coastal
impact and vulnerability
assessment of sea-level rise
(adapted from Klein and
Nicholls to reflect
terminology in the IPCC
Third Assessment Report
biogeophysical effects and socio-economic impacts. For any single effect or
impact, there is also a variety of methods and approaches to analysis, leading to a
wide range of approaches which could be applied to assessing the overall impacts
of sea-level rise. Last, the interactions between the different effects and impacts
need to be considered, including the scope for adaptation. Therefore, it is critical
to have:
E a conceptual framework within which to ask basic questions about impacts
and vulnerability;
E a consistent vulnerability assessment methodology to address these questions;
and
E appropriate analytical tools to implement the methodology.
Thus, the conceptual framework is overarching and key to the analysis: an
example is presented in Figure 4. The terminology has been modified slightly
from the original to reflect the terms used by Smit et al., but the underlying
meanings remain the same.
Figure 4 distinguishes the natural system and socio-economic system which
coexist in the coastal zone. Analysis of socio-economic impacts and vulnerability
requires prior understanding of the natural system response to sea-level rise.
Hence, analysis of coastal vulnerability starts with some notion of the
natural(-system) sensitivity to the biogeophysical effects of sea-level rise, and the
natural(-system) adaptive capacity to cope with these effects. Sensitivity simply
reflects the natural system’s potential to be affected by sea-level rise (e.g. a
subsiding sedimentary delta is more sensitive than an emerging rocky coast),
while adaptive capacity describes the natural system’s stability in the face of
Rising Sea Levels: Potential Impacts and Responses
91
SOCIO-ECONOMIC SYSTEM
NON-CLIMATIC
STRESSES
SEA-LEVEL
RISE (AND
OTHER
CLIMATE
CHANGE)
RESIDUAL IMPACTS
SOCIO-ECONOMIC
VULNERABILITY
SOCIO-ECONOMIC
SENSITIVITY
SOCIO-ECONOMIC
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
AUTONOMOUS
ADAPTATION
PLANNED
ADAPTATION
NATURAL
SENSITIVITY
NATURAL
L
ADAPTIVE
CAPACITY
NATURAL
VULNERABILITY
BIOGEOPHYSICAL
EFFECTS
AUTONOMOUS
ADAPTATION
PLANNED
ADAPTATION
Figure 4 A conceptual
framework for coastal
impact and vulnerability
assessment of sea-level rise
(adapted from Klein and
Nicholls to reflect
terminology in the IPCC
Third Assessment Report
biogeophysical effects and socio-economic impacts. For any single effect or
impact, there is also a variety of methods and approaches to analysis, leading to a
wide range of approaches which could be applied to assessing the overall impacts
of sea-level rise. Last, the interactions between the different effects and impacts
need to be considered, including the scope for adaptation. Therefore, it is critical
to have:
E a conceptual framework within which to ask basic questions about impacts
and vulnerability;
E a consistent vulnerability assessment methodology to address these questions;
and
E appropriate analytical tools to implement the methodology.
Thus, the conceptual framework is overarching and key to the analysis: an
example is presented in Figure 4. The terminology has been modified slightly
from the original to reflect the terms used by Smit et al., but the underlying
meanings remain the same.
Figure 4 distinguishes the natural system and socio-economic system which
coexist in the coastal zone. Analysis of socio-economic impacts and vulnerability
requires prior understanding of the natural system response to sea-level rise.
Hence, analysis of coastal vulnerability starts with some notion of the
natural(-system) sensitivity to the biogeophysical effects of sea-level rise, and the
natural(-system) adaptive capacity to cope with these effects. Sensitivity simply
reflects the natural system’s potential to be affected by sea-level rise (e.g. a
subsiding sedimentary delta is more sensitive than an emerging rocky coast),
while adaptive capacity describes the natural system’s stability in the face of
Rising Sea Levels: Potential Impacts and Responses
91