benefits, has become the main drivers of global change, especially since the second
half of twentieth century (Turner et al. 2007). Well-documented global changes
include concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere; alterations in the
biochemistry of the global nitrogen cycle; and on-going land use and land cover
change (Vitousek 1994). Land use and land cover change is a pervasive factor of
global importance not only because it represents a major component of global
change but also it strongly interacts with other components of global environmental
change. To date, as much as 50 % of the earth’s ice-free land has been transformed
or degraded (Haberl et al. 2007). Only between 2000 and 2010, approximately
13 million hectares of land area (about the area of Greece) were converted each year
to other land cover types (FAO 2010). Moreover, land changes have far-reaching
influences on the structure and function of the earth’s ecosystems, with equally
significant implications for the human society (Steffen et al. 2004). On the one
hand, land changes affect the ecosystems in several ways, such as reducing native
habitat and species, accelerating soil decomposition, disrupting freshwater
resources and quality, as well as leading to additional greenhouse gas release
(Turner et al. 1993; Camill 2010). For example, deforestation is thought to contribute to nearly 20 % of the global carbon dioxide release (1.5–2 billion tons of carbon)
(Camill 2010). On the other hand, rapid urbanization and the concentration of
human populations into large metropolises have altered the city’s cultures, politics,
and economics, which are just beginning to be fully recognized as a significant
global problem.
Over the past years, land change science has emerged as a fundamental component of global environmental change and sustainability research (Turner
et al. 2007). This interdisciplinary field seeks to understand land use and land
cover dynamics through integrating the human, environmental, and geographical
information-remote sensing sciences. Challenges lie in the complexity of land
change processes, in which human and environmental systems interact over space
and time to reshape the earth’s surface. Research in land change science has been
dedicated to enhance our understanding of land changes through: (i) monitoring
land changes at different spatiotemporal scales, (ii) exploring the driving forces
(both human and environmental) and feedbacks underlying land changes, (iii)
spatially explicit modeling of land changes, and (iv) assessing system outcomes
(Turner et al. 2007). Land change modeling is a promising research area which can
support an integrated earth system science enterprise. Models allow us to link
human behaviors with landscape patterns for simulating the processes of land
changes in the past and present, for forecasting future landscape dynamics under
different scenarios, and for informing decision-making towards sustainable land
and resource management.
This chapter examines a collection of land change models (LCM) for global
environmental change research. To a large degree, modeling is a way of thinking
more than a technology. Over the past several decades, various modeling
approaches have been developed, which provide insights into the functioning of
land changes at aggregated and individual levels, across various spatiotemporal
scales, as well as in human, natural, and the coupled systems. Meanwhile, there are
numerous theoretical and technological challenges for the modeling of land
4
T. Liu and X. Yang
half of twentieth century (Turner et al. 2007). Well-documented global changes
include concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere; alterations in the
biochemistry of the global nitrogen cycle; and on-going land use and land cover
change (Vitousek 1994). Land use and land cover change is a pervasive factor of
global importance not only because it represents a major component of global
change but also it strongly interacts with other components of global environmental
change. To date, as much as 50 % of the earth’s ice-free land has been transformed
or degraded (Haberl et al. 2007). Only between 2000 and 2010, approximately
13 million hectares of land area (about the area of Greece) were converted each year
to other land cover types (FAO 2010). Moreover, land changes have far-reaching
influences on the structure and function of the earth’s ecosystems, with equally
significant implications for the human society (Steffen et al. 2004). On the one
hand, land changes affect the ecosystems in several ways, such as reducing native
habitat and species, accelerating soil decomposition, disrupting freshwater
resources and quality, as well as leading to additional greenhouse gas release
(Turner et al. 1993; Camill 2010). For example, deforestation is thought to contribute to nearly 20 % of the global carbon dioxide release (1.5–2 billion tons of carbon)
(Camill 2010). On the other hand, rapid urbanization and the concentration of
human populations into large metropolises have altered the city’s cultures, politics,
and economics, which are just beginning to be fully recognized as a significant
global problem.
Over the past years, land change science has emerged as a fundamental component of global environmental change and sustainability research (Turner
et al. 2007). This interdisciplinary field seeks to understand land use and land
cover dynamics through integrating the human, environmental, and geographical
information-remote sensing sciences. Challenges lie in the complexity of land
change processes, in which human and environmental systems interact over space
and time to reshape the earth’s surface. Research in land change science has been
dedicated to enhance our understanding of land changes through: (i) monitoring
land changes at different spatiotemporal scales, (ii) exploring the driving forces
(both human and environmental) and feedbacks underlying land changes, (iii)
spatially explicit modeling of land changes, and (iv) assessing system outcomes
(Turner et al. 2007). Land change modeling is a promising research area which can
support an integrated earth system science enterprise. Models allow us to link
human behaviors with landscape patterns for simulating the processes of land
changes in the past and present, for forecasting future landscape dynamics under
different scenarios, and for informing decision-making towards sustainable land
and resource management.
This chapter examines a collection of land change models (LCM) for global
environmental change research. To a large degree, modeling is a way of thinking
more than a technology. Over the past several decades, various modeling
approaches have been developed, which provide insights into the functioning of
land changes at aggregated and individual levels, across various spatiotemporal
scales, as well as in human, natural, and the coupled systems. Meanwhile, there are
numerous theoretical and technological challenges for the modeling of land
4
T. Liu and X. Yang