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Y. Olsen et al.
Scenario 1 – No New Marine Feed Resource
for Mariculture is Made Available
Global fishery activities have continued along relatively traditional lines. The global
harvest of fisheries is around 120 million tonnes, thanks to a better understanding
of the marine ecosystem, a reduction in losses, improved harvesting technology, a
strategic use of nutrient emission from agriculture to enhance fish production in the
coastal zone, and new efficient international regulations and management principles
of fisheries. Carnivorous species are mainly made available from fisheries, and have
high prices in the market. The large catches of zooplanktivore fish, earlier used primarily for fish feed, are almost entirely used for direct human consumption, a result
of an increased global economic welfare. The losses of traditional feed resources
has at the end affected the conditions for mariculture developments negatively as
no other ω3 HUFA rich bio-resources has been made available for fish feed. It is in
particular the production of high-valued marine fish and squid that have been most
impacted. Mariculture development has been most successful for macro-algae,
herbivore animals, e.g. mussels and tilapia grown in brackish waters, and other fish
species that can be produced with a high fraction of oils and protein from agriculture (e.g., ω3 rich oils from rapeseed) and only minor amounts of marine feed.
Salmon cultivation continued to expand, because salmon is relatively flexible with
regard to lipid nutrition, but its production levelled around 2020. Mariculture in
Europe produces mainly shellfish. The culture of carnivore fishes dominating
European aquaculture in the early part of the period is strongly reduced. Cultured
seafood is to a great extent imported from other regions that have been more
successful with their herbivore fish species. There is, however, an increasing
competition also for agriculture products in the world market, and the global
perspectives are relatively negative.
The global mariculture production by 2050 is 60 million tonnes. The total global
marine harvest (i.e., the sum of fisheries and mariculture) is 180 million tonnes,
corresponding to an increase of 1.4 million tonnes per year from 2000 to 2050. The
perspectives for the future are negative; over-fishing is still a severe problem, developments in mariculture is slow and the sea supplies less food per capita to human
nutrition than in the year 2000.
Scenario 2 – Large Herbivore Zooplankton Stocks Is Utilised
for Fish Feed in Addition to Agriculture Products
Methods for harvesting, refining, and managing stocks of large herbivore zooplankton
became available and commercial by 2015, and the global harvest of fisheries in
2050 reached 190 million tonnes, of which 80 million tonnes were herbivore
zooplankton. This implies a major change in harvesting strategies facilitated by a better
understanding of the marine ecosystem, an efficient harvesting technology for large
Y. Olsen et al.
Scenario 1 – No New Marine Feed Resource
for Mariculture is Made Available
Global fishery activities have continued along relatively traditional lines. The global
harvest of fisheries is around 120 million tonnes, thanks to a better understanding
of the marine ecosystem, a reduction in losses, improved harvesting technology, a
strategic use of nutrient emission from agriculture to enhance fish production in the
coastal zone, and new efficient international regulations and management principles
of fisheries. Carnivorous species are mainly made available from fisheries, and have
high prices in the market. The large catches of zooplanktivore fish, earlier used primarily for fish feed, are almost entirely used for direct human consumption, a result
of an increased global economic welfare. The losses of traditional feed resources
has at the end affected the conditions for mariculture developments negatively as
no other ω3 HUFA rich bio-resources has been made available for fish feed. It is in
particular the production of high-valued marine fish and squid that have been most
impacted. Mariculture development has been most successful for macro-algae,
herbivore animals, e.g. mussels and tilapia grown in brackish waters, and other fish
species that can be produced with a high fraction of oils and protein from agriculture (e.g., ω3 rich oils from rapeseed) and only minor amounts of marine feed.
Salmon cultivation continued to expand, because salmon is relatively flexible with
regard to lipid nutrition, but its production levelled around 2020. Mariculture in
Europe produces mainly shellfish. The culture of carnivore fishes dominating
European aquaculture in the early part of the period is strongly reduced. Cultured
seafood is to a great extent imported from other regions that have been more
successful with their herbivore fish species. There is, however, an increasing
competition also for agriculture products in the world market, and the global
perspectives are relatively negative.
The global mariculture production by 2050 is 60 million tonnes. The total global
marine harvest (i.e., the sum of fisheries and mariculture) is 180 million tonnes,
corresponding to an increase of 1.4 million tonnes per year from 2000 to 2050. The
perspectives for the future are negative; over-fishing is still a severe problem, developments in mariculture is slow and the sea supplies less food per capita to human
nutrition than in the year 2000.
Scenario 2 – Large Herbivore Zooplankton Stocks Is Utilised
for Fish Feed in Addition to Agriculture Products
Methods for harvesting, refining, and managing stocks of large herbivore zooplankton
became available and commercial by 2015, and the global harvest of fisheries in
2050 reached 190 million tonnes, of which 80 million tonnes were herbivore
zooplankton. This implies a major change in harvesting strategies facilitated by a better
understanding of the marine ecosystem, an efficient harvesting technology for large