Chapter 10
Status and Future Perspectives
of Marine Aquaculture
Yngvar Olsen
1,
*, Oddmund Otterstad
2 , and Carlos M. Duarte
3
Abstract The predicted growth in aquaculture production to 80–90 million tonnes
year
−1 in 2050 is constrained by important drivers, which can be divided into three
main clusters: (1) a resource cluster (availability of resources such as space, feed
and energy); (2) an attitudinal cluster (public and consumer attitudes, legislation
etc.) and (3) an innovation cluster (new technology and market developments).
This chapter discuss solutions to these bottlenecks based on the current status
of aquaculture and possible developments in e.g. feed technology, off-shore and
land-based farms. A model for the possible future interactions between the three
clusters is discussed. From this analysis, it is concluded that a major challenge for
aquaculture is to achieve better control of the feed availability in the future. Only
if this can be realised, aquaculture may grow in a similar way as agriculture. Space
for the industry and public environmental concern are other main driving factors
of the development, but these constraints can most likely be mitigated through
technological improvements.
Keywords Bottlenecks, environment, technology, attitudes, policy
10.1 Introduction
In this chapter, we shall examine some important bottle-necks for further development
of aquaculture during the next decades. By identifying present trends in marine aquaculture development, we shall point out a few relevant scenarios towards year 2050.
1
Trondhjem Biological Station, Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science
and Technology, Trondheim, Norway. Tel: +47 73591592; Fax: +47 73591597;
E-mail: yngvar.olsen@bio.ntnu.no
2
Department of Sociology and Political Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and
Technology, Trondheim, Norway
3
IMEDEA, CSIC-UIB, Miquel Marqués 21, 07190 Esporles (Mallorca), Spain
* Corrosponding author
M. Holmer et al. (eds.), Aquaculture in the Ecosystem.
293
© 2008 Springer
Status and Future Perspectives
of Marine Aquaculture
Yngvar Olsen
1,
*, Oddmund Otterstad
2 , and Carlos M. Duarte
3
Abstract The predicted growth in aquaculture production to 80–90 million tonnes
year
−1 in 2050 is constrained by important drivers, which can be divided into three
main clusters: (1) a resource cluster (availability of resources such as space, feed
and energy); (2) an attitudinal cluster (public and consumer attitudes, legislation
etc.) and (3) an innovation cluster (new technology and market developments).
This chapter discuss solutions to these bottlenecks based on the current status
of aquaculture and possible developments in e.g. feed technology, off-shore and
land-based farms. A model for the possible future interactions between the three
clusters is discussed. From this analysis, it is concluded that a major challenge for
aquaculture is to achieve better control of the feed availability in the future. Only
if this can be realised, aquaculture may grow in a similar way as agriculture. Space
for the industry and public environmental concern are other main driving factors
of the development, but these constraints can most likely be mitigated through
technological improvements.
Keywords Bottlenecks, environment, technology, attitudes, policy
10.1 Introduction
In this chapter, we shall examine some important bottle-necks for further development
of aquaculture during the next decades. By identifying present trends in marine aquaculture development, we shall point out a few relevant scenarios towards year 2050.
1
Trondhjem Biological Station, Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science
and Technology, Trondheim, Norway. Tel: +47 73591592; Fax: +47 73591597;
E-mail: yngvar.olsen@bio.ntnu.no
2
Department of Sociology and Political Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and
Technology, Trondheim, Norway
3
IMEDEA, CSIC-UIB, Miquel Marqués 21, 07190 Esporles (Mallorca), Spain
* Corrosponding author
M. Holmer et al. (eds.), Aquaculture in the Ecosystem.
293
© 2008 Springer