290
F. Asche et al.
To obtain this control with the production process, one needs to move towards
relatively intensive production techniques. Unfortunately, while this is what has
made it possible for aquaculture to become an important source of food, it has also
been responsible for creating some major environmental challenges. At this stage, it
is impossible to claim that most aquaculture will follow environmentally sustainable
practices, but the evidence from other industries indicates that this is likely as the
environmental issues can generally be addressed. Moreover, environmentally
detrimental practices will in general hamper productivity growth or increase production cost, and make such farmers uncompetitive. This is true for shrimp farmers that
mine locations, as they do not undertake the investments necessary for adapting new
technologies, although such practices will potentially always be profitable in poor
countries with poor regulations. It will also be true for species that requires substantial quantities of fishmeal if marine inputs for feed become scarce. This is because
these species will be uncompetitive because of higher production costs if they cannot
substitute this feed for feed with a lower or no content of marine inputs.
In many ways, aquaculture development is still in its infancy. For many species
one has not even closed the production cycle yet, i.e., one still depends on the harvesting
of wild fingerlings rather then producing them from a domesticated stock. Hence,
there is a substantial potential for further productivity growth, and for aquaculture
production to become less costly. There will certainly be boom-and-bust cycles as
production at times increases faster then the productivity growth, but the underlying
trend is clearly one of sustained growth. In a worst-case scenario, there may be
import bans from the EU and the US because of environmental concerns. However,
continued productivity growth will ensure that aquaculture becomes an increasingly
important food supplier locally because it is profitable and produces an easily
traded commodity. It is also unlikely that there will be import bans on most aquaculture species, and any trade limitations stemming from environmental concerns are
likely to affect only a few species. On the other hand, trade restrictions, if they are
not targeted at achieving sustainable practices, can limit economic development
and local food supply. Many dumping cases indicate that this is a problem.
The evidence so far indicate that within a group of species there can be strong
competition (Asche et al. 2001), but so far there has been little competition between
different aquaculture species. As the industry matures, this is likely to change profoundly. If one looks at agriculture, only a few species are likely to be large volume
species. These are likely to be segmented into groups like meat and vegetables,
but there are not likely to be many such groups with large volumes. Within each group,
there are likely to be a few important parameters that distinguish the species, like size,
flesh texture and colour. The species that will be the large volume species are those
where the potential for productivity growth is largest and where production cost can
be the lowest. As higher water temperature in general leads to higher growth, producers
in tropical and subtropical areas have an advantage. This should indicate that most of
the aquaculture production will continue to take place in developing countries, provided that suitable sites are available with respect to water quality etc. However, as
the EU, Japan and USA are the main markets, infrastructure also is a main concern,
as the consumers do not care where in the supply chain costs occur, but only about
F. Asche et al.
To obtain this control with the production process, one needs to move towards
relatively intensive production techniques. Unfortunately, while this is what has
made it possible for aquaculture to become an important source of food, it has also
been responsible for creating some major environmental challenges. At this stage, it
is impossible to claim that most aquaculture will follow environmentally sustainable
practices, but the evidence from other industries indicates that this is likely as the
environmental issues can generally be addressed. Moreover, environmentally
detrimental practices will in general hamper productivity growth or increase production cost, and make such farmers uncompetitive. This is true for shrimp farmers that
mine locations, as they do not undertake the investments necessary for adapting new
technologies, although such practices will potentially always be profitable in poor
countries with poor regulations. It will also be true for species that requires substantial quantities of fishmeal if marine inputs for feed become scarce. This is because
these species will be uncompetitive because of higher production costs if they cannot
substitute this feed for feed with a lower or no content of marine inputs.
In many ways, aquaculture development is still in its infancy. For many species
one has not even closed the production cycle yet, i.e., one still depends on the harvesting
of wild fingerlings rather then producing them from a domesticated stock. Hence,
there is a substantial potential for further productivity growth, and for aquaculture
production to become less costly. There will certainly be boom-and-bust cycles as
production at times increases faster then the productivity growth, but the underlying
trend is clearly one of sustained growth. In a worst-case scenario, there may be
import bans from the EU and the US because of environmental concerns. However,
continued productivity growth will ensure that aquaculture becomes an increasingly
important food supplier locally because it is profitable and produces an easily
traded commodity. It is also unlikely that there will be import bans on most aquaculture species, and any trade limitations stemming from environmental concerns are
likely to affect only a few species. On the other hand, trade restrictions, if they are
not targeted at achieving sustainable practices, can limit economic development
and local food supply. Many dumping cases indicate that this is a problem.
The evidence so far indicate that within a group of species there can be strong
competition (Asche et al. 2001), but so far there has been little competition between
different aquaculture species. As the industry matures, this is likely to change profoundly. If one looks at agriculture, only a few species are likely to be large volume
species. These are likely to be segmented into groups like meat and vegetables,
but there are not likely to be many such groups with large volumes. Within each group,
there are likely to be a few important parameters that distinguish the species, like size,
flesh texture and colour. The species that will be the large volume species are those
where the potential for productivity growth is largest and where production cost can
be the lowest. As higher water temperature in general leads to higher growth, producers
in tropical and subtropical areas have an advantage. This should indicate that most of
the aquaculture production will continue to take place in developing countries, provided that suitable sites are available with respect to water quality etc. However, as
the EU, Japan and USA are the main markets, infrastructure also is a main concern,
as the consumers do not care where in the supply chain costs occur, but only about